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The 6z Euro Op also was much more onboard as well so there was some overnight consensus for sure .

At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place.

Schools here on a two-hour delay for freezing fog and low visibility. Currently under 1/8 mile visibility.

6z euro ai slaughters. We take that.

(…..and Wednesday…)

Got down to 33.6 but extremely heavy frost. Looks like we had freezing fog overnight

SNE with the double whammy Fri + Sun/Mon system

Fairly substantial freezing fog event taking place up here. Roofs, trees, and the grass that has been exposed are all covered in white. 26 degrees.

Nothing eats snowpack quite like fog

I think we should have created a thread first to discuss whether we should create a thread.

We will know soon. The Ai has our energy hitting California in 54 hours. It’s also moving the junk from Friday east a lot faster. The storm is Sunday but the next 48 hours is make or break imo

I just looked, that EURO AI is a Goldilocks burial solution. Wow

This is definitely a legit threat. Timing during the week is similar to Jan 25 (Sunday start time plus or minus 12-18 hours). But I’ll note that for Jan 25, we also had pretty good consensus broadly for a storm on Tuesday. Wednesday 0z I think was when things jumped north and started showing the sleet mix. But they were pretty locked in after that point outside of some windshield wiper action on details.

it's had it off an on for 2-3 days..with a few grazes mixed in

Oh I misread, so the EURO AI has it now?

Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....

@mitchnick @Ji @stormtracker a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow! There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out.

Exactly, after this, it's basically March and we know what that means. Time to go all-in if you have not pushed all of your chips in yet.

This is the 1st run that it has. This isn’t the GFS AI.

Damn that looks fantastic. Soooo hard not to get roped in with these looks lol. Oh well may as well push all the chips in because this is probably our last big chance anyway. If it fails we can track the nice sustained warm up for spring.

Florida's citrus industry, reeling from a 90% decline in production since 1997, is severely impacted by citrus greening (HLB) spread by the Asian citrus psyllid . The lack of hard freezes allows these insects to survive year-round, sustaining the bacteria that kills trees. Consequently, nearly 100% of Florida's groves are infected, with researchers testing genetically modified trees and, for now, relying on insecticide use. Key Impacts of Persistent Insect Populations: Constant Infestation: The Asian citrus psyllid, which transmits the Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus bacteria, thrives in warmer, milder winters, leading to year-round feeding on tender new leaf growth. Decimated Production: The inability to kill off the insect population has resulted in the lowest, or near-lowest, orange production in over a century, with 2021-2022 levels dropping to 12.6 million boxes from a peak of 250 million. Management Struggles: Because the psyllids remain active, growers are forced to use extensive chemical controls to mitigate, rather than eradicate, the disease. Research and Mitigation Efforts: Genetically Modified Trees: Researchers are developing trees that produce a protein, often derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which can kill the psyllid at its early stages, limiting the population. CUPS: Citrus Under Protective Screen (CUPS) structures are being used to physically exclude the psyllid, allowing for high-quality production in protected environments. Nutrient Management: While no cure exists, nutrient-rich, systemic treatments are used to help trees live longer, even though they remain infected.

WB AI GEFS for 1pm and 7pm Sunday.

The start of something?

Has had that for more than a few runs in a row now

Yeah of course that could be the final outcome, but it’s just not to see the ops advertising that.