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  2. Pouring buckets..just imagine if this happened about two weeks ago
  3. Every year we have the ethics debate. I can't speak for others - but I am not "rooting for severe storms" in the damage sense. I like interesting weather - and I/we/us have no control over it. If it's going to be a substantial severe day, I am going to track it with enthusiasm. Nothing we say or do is going to change the outcome.
  4. I don’t get why anyone roots for severe storms. Especially in populated areas. There are real people with real homes whose lives could be upended. My hope is for a complete bust.
  5. lol that's exactly what I just told someone at work (re 9-10am we'll get a "feel" for the day so-to-speak.) Then again, there are still a LOT of ingredients at play here beyond cape. Mets seem to think there's sufficient lifting, so we may not be too dependent on daytime heating. It'll still be an interesting day regardless... and it looks like those winds will almost certainly mix down either way as well.
  6. 53 degrees and drizzle. Picked .08” of rain overnight. NWS cut down on my rain totals overnight. Went from 1,55” to 1.11” today.
  7. My benchmark for crapvection in these events if 9-10am. If things look socked in by 9 or 10 am, it's often times a bust. If there's ANY breaks in sun by that time, it ramps the threat level up substantially. Even then, still ways it can be muted.
  8. Yeah I'd much rather trade that in for two rounds lol - I think that first round might really ruin things for us, but who knows. My primary PWS in Middleburg is already 64 deg w/ DP of 62.8.
  9. Man I didn't realize so many Mid-Atlantic severe peeps are on the Doom-And-Gloom Express (based on last night's posts). Need to reprise my role of hype man for these events.
  10. I was hoping to chase down an EF3 with my work truck this afternoon over on the eastern shore. I need sunshine and super cells.
  11. It actually tries for like 3ish rounds - I'm not sure I buy that but who knows. It has the pre-frontal stuff, a line in the afternoon, and then a frontal line it looks like of heavily forced showers with high winds. Has some UH swaths come through around 3-4pm.
  12. 10z HRRR has some pre-line stuff and then a decent looking line later on.
  13. Live NWS update from State College NWS https://www.facebook.com/reel/1253372836765634
  14. Those are clear skies an hour after that first line and not a long distance from the main line here in the foothills. That can’t bode well for folks down east. .
  15. Are we having a repeat of last Thursday where we get a little white rain on the back end of this?
  16. This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat. But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures.
  17. Very dangerous cell. Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 712 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Madison County in western North Carolina... Central Yancey County in western North Carolina... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 712 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles east of Marshall, or near Mars Hill, moving northeast at 40 mph.
  18. Wow. It's crazy here y'all. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk
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