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There was definitely enough moisture to get me pretty wet on my bike ride last night. It actually felt pretty good considering how hot it was.

Your house must have 0 insulation. A few less $6/pint IPAs a week and you can probably save enough for better insulation, maybe even a mini-split. Not really a dunk. Recognize it early and pull the plug before kids >>> pretend it's working just to protect the institution of marriage while deep down everyone is miserable.

I start following ENSO in the blog in about a month, once I do the wrap up on the prior season and we clear the spring prediction barrier. Should be pretty clear by then.

Whole house fan here. Sucks the heat right out. Too early to run the CAC and haven't had it serviced yet

Two reports of tornadoes in my part of the state. The one earlier mentioned around Carson City and another near Otsego and Plainwell that crossed US-131. Just lots of rain IMBY. My county was briefly under a warning but I don't believe anything ever touched down.

Looks like it’s going to be an easy ENSO forecast as well….High-end strong (at the very least)/super. Given everything that we’ve seen up to this point, WWBs, TC’s, subsurface, +PMM, MJO, OHC, etc. and the models projecting a strong +IOD event to develop in the next several months, it’s going to be able to very easily sustain itself and start a Bjerknes feedback loop

Managed to scrounge up 0.54" from the early morning elevated leftovers. Brings April up to 4.78". Today/this evening has been looking like our best shot for heavy rains all along, and still looks that way.

That’s Thursday. Last night was fine in the 50s.

Would make for an easy forecast in terms of temps.

The environment is now quite wet. I got another 0.83" overnight, boosting my April total to nearly 5 inches.

An extreme +PMM has developed: @40/70 Benchmark As per research, +PMM supports east-based/East Pacific Niños. So that would support your idea of 1982-83 possibly being an analog Research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.” Link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other%20climate%20modes%20further%20complicate,and%20NPO%2C%20on%20ENSO%20evolution.

Where was this blocking in early March?

Its like full on summer down here in CT with dews and +30 departures..

when he is old and frail, he is going to have to call some local handyman to come install his window ACs. Kevin: need to install window units, please come this week Handyman: huh? Hey old man, it’s April 10th. you don’t need it yet. Handyman hangs up and says to himself, man, that guy has severe dementia.

Yes absolutely. It was 77 on the thermostat last evening . I mean it hit 83 with low 60’s dews. I love the early heat but also love to sleep

Did you really have AC window units running last night?

If I put AC in (which no way this early) my wife would kick them out the window.

I have a very low tolerance for people who can't disagree without hurling insults......talk about a tell-tale sign of feelings of inadequacy. Ball-busting sarcasm is one thing, but there is simply no place for calling anyone an idiot, or referring to their postulation as "idiotic".

Why? Did you mean to ask Tblizz this since he’s been divorced and married 4 times at age 25?

Typo

What is idiotic is your inability to wrap your mind around the fact that it works for the strongest of events. Weaker events are much more variable and cool ENSO doesn't get as strong; I have already stated that. Assuming we peak over 2.0 during the coming El Nino, I will bet you an idiotic $100 right now that 2027-2028 is yet another cool ENSO. Should be something akin to taking the proverbial candy from a baby for you, right?? I get what you are saying about the sample size being inadequate in the grand scope of time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the relationship doesn't exist. You can pull sample size on any relationship or correlation with respect to the weather because all of our sample sizes are inadequate. We have been keeping records for such a small fraction of time.

I honestly don’t know how the wife lives with Kevin

Beer?

quality ~3 inch soaker, remember the drought?

70s? It was 80’s yesterday and next two days at least with dews into 60’s at times