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  2. Terpeast
    Yeah that looks really good, but we’ve seen a lot of great looks for Feb only for them to slip away at the last minute. Let’s see if this one holds given the strength of the nina and subsidence over the MC.
  3. CAPE
    And no one cares about the pathetic Os going forward. Next time we will pay attention is if the owner has the nuts to fire Elias, and by extension that pathetic excuse of a manager.
  4. CAPE
    The latest CanSIPS has that feature getting stronger as winter progresses, but it also has it located far enough west for an EPO ridge. January and esp February look interesting, suggesting a -AO and -NAO as well. That combo would he a best case for cold to move southward into our nearby source region while mitigating PAC puke onslaught.
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  6. JenkinsJinkies
    Again, we always pay for early cool downs. Be thankful though, 2017 was worse.
  7. JenkinsJinkies
    Just like 16-17, a Niña.
  8. Brian D
    NOAA ERSSTv6 updated for Aug. Here's the ENSO 3.4 region temps.
  9. GATECH
    Fear Not! I am keeping my pool open until October 19th! This should summon the cold air from Canada ASAP! …Or on the flip side if it’s hot I will be the most popular house in the neighborhood!
  10. tamarack
    The morning's forecast for here of 1/4"-1/2" has been lowered to 01"-0.25" this afternoon. It seems that the latest QPFs immediately before events get reduced from earlier forecasts 90% of the time. Sandy River is below the 10th percentile. Last Thursday's 0.40" has come and gone by.
  11. CoastalWx
    77 here off of 81.2. Muggy. Summer
  12. Brian D
    Early data for Aug has updated. Near avg Aug again. Summer was on the warmer side again this year. Also included station map showing how things looked across our region. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.
  13. Today
  14. Nomz
    Just checked the NWS 7 day highs and i wanna die
  15. Paleocene
    Souptember 2026
  16. GaWx
    July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6:
  17. mitchnick
    Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384
  18. Birds~69
    86F/DP 67F Not horrible w/the breeze/partly cloudy...
  19. Brian5671
    80 here. A bit more humid ahead of the front
  20. OSUmetstud
    Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. Its extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM.
  21. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  22. ravensrule
    BEST DAY OF THE YEAR. Football season starts. Hell yea.
  23. SJonesWX
    absolutely right. 73 degrees for a high today.
  24. Terpeast
    I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.
  25. BTRWx's Thanks Giving
    Hello AMWxers! This post from CIMSS has my attention. We all know what happened the other two record low hurricane years!
  26. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has warmed ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th:
  27. CAPE
    I'm not pessimistic, just one of several posts about the subjective nature of trying to glean details from the seasonal tools. They are all depicting the same general idea. Need the Aleutian trough to not be an eastward displaced beast all winter, and we should gets some shots of cold. Have to follow Judah to find out if the AO will be our friend.
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