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Yeah at this point I would like to revise to November 27th

My recollection is a -AO its the strongest correlation to colder than avg temps for the greater DC area. A -AO during a Nino likely(at least historically) increases snow chances, probably more so than a Nina.

texts you get when you're me

It’s now official. For the 1st time ever in recorded weather history, Nino region 3.4 went above 30C (absolute temperature). If there was any little doubt left that this is going to be an all-time record El Niño, this settled it @bluewave

Just came back from a walk and its quite raw out there with the temps in the mid 40's and winds from the NW gusting in the 20's.

Same here Tom, Wherever i clear the snow on 2 paths to the shed, Ground is a good 6" plus higher with the frost getting down quite deep, And i have a lot of clay so its even worse.

Nice one and and I know right definitely pleasant weather temps dry dew points its just right that is good to know interesting and no worries all good .

One of my favorites of the year. Not too humid or too cold. Crisp fall air usually offers excellent visibility. Alas, I slept and yeah the Moon is a problem evenings.

I'm sensing an increasing privatization of general weather mappage is becoming more and more problematic to general usership. Pay-up or no forecast graphics for you. The NWS doesn't really provide graphics worth a shit ... I mean, we don't need or really ask for all the bells and whistles, either. Hell, I'd take 2-meter temp progs in black and white numerology, and the old black and white difax charts. Give me those and telecon and I'd smoke the industry The FOUS/NAM is going away ... I don't know of any source that provides raw modeled grid/altitude numbers. They may be out there but the web these days is too cryptic and hard to find anything. Us "meteorologists" prefer grids some times. These strings of numbers like this random ex for the mid atlantic, TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 DFW//969272 03902 121110 65151409 06089979167 06500 121803 64161408 12020936119 -0602 113411 60151207 18000925106 -3605 183119 50110704 24000906705 -4806 193116 47090600 30000622206 -4114 223213 52100603 36000501320 -2316 193009 59120806 create a mental picture that to the educated is often way more correct than some X'er pimped out chart, or PIVOTAL this or Weatherbell that... anyway. But society can't seem to function at all without passing their next breath through the filter of capitalistic ambition and money aspirations... Please, bring humanity a corrective comet! It's like the working "comet", CC, is really making it worse because storm or event ferocity are now a fad, so graphical enterprises are getting greed wet dreams. Combining that with the collapse of government .. it's all creating an exclusionary kind of access. I think it's a matter of time before PIVOTAL, and Tropical Tiddly winks or Golden Gate ... start asking for cash for any of it. I can't wait until I bring my storm generator on line and turn on the lightning bolt targeting system. ha

Fantastic outside. Finally a completely rainless weekend with legit Fall weather. Took the day off and having some tree work done, primarily this big dead standing oak is getting taken down. Fun to watch these dudes.

Models are starting to show a N pacific low. The low being displaced far eastward into the EPO domain makes sense to me.

If you can believe it, Chesco's current stance is more outdated and scientifically unfounded than Exxon Mobil's.. from the 1970s

I maintain a cleared trail from driveway to the toolshed, about 50 feet, and when the snow goes away in April that path is 4-6" higher than the surrounding lawn. Takes a couple months for that elevated track to (mostly) settle back. Coldest October morning here is 11, on the 31st in 2020. In Fort Kent we reached 7 on the 30th in 1978. That year had our coldest readings in August (28), October and November (-12)

So ARE Maine wells drying up or IS Wells, Maine drying up? Or both?

next two weeks look mild, overall.

I kind of have too...or at least don't put much stock into it.

and we will start with the annual let's end this practice that we do twice a year and then nothing changes.

Frost warnings here tonight-should end the growing season.

@ChescoWx "When you hear claims that “the science is settled,” remember that the science is built on data that has been repeatedly altered. But if the proof relies on manipulated data, then the case collapses." So produce the data that refutes it in a reputable study using scientific methodology, have it stand up to peer review and scientific scrutiny, and publish the results. Nothing is stopping anyone from doing this. But without producing such studies you are doing exactly what you are accusing the scientific community of doing. Worse, you aren't even doing the work, you're just "saying stuff" on the internet. Anyone can say absolutely anything. Objective evidence is what is needed for a claim to be taken seriously. Currently there are no credible scientific studies that prove humans are not contributing to climate change. NASA https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/ Reports or articles arguing against human-caused climate change typically originate from advocacy groups, political think tanks, or non-peer-reviewed blogs (such as the Heartland Institute or CLINTEL) rather than accredited scientific research institutions. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/mythbusters

I honestly don’t even look at the GFS anymore.

Once we saw the complete trade wind reversal and the record-breaking WWBs/DWKWs this spring along with the full-scale propagation east of the 30C warm pool, I knew this thing was going to shoot to the moon. The DWKWs breaking at the South American coast and the ++PMM were the clues that it was going to be severely east-based. The +IOD forming also fell right into place this fall too, as was expected, so no shock there

This year different types of trees and their locations are in different fall foliage stages. Some trees have already gone past peak and some have lost most of their leaves - some trees have mainly green leaves - and various others are changing colors at different speeds ..........