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  2. frd
    Max heat begins to move West later this week.
  3. LakePaste25
    We will see. I don’t deny that there could be *some* destructive interference. I’m just arguing that the event will be so strong and well-coupled that it won’t have a significant outcome that diverges from the canonical El Niño winter pattern (GOA low, strong southern stream, above normal N Tier, and wet S tier). 97-98 likely had constructive interference.
  4. roardog
    I’d rather have the January 2008 60s with severe weather.
  5. Met1985
    Yeah we've had a lot of rain since Saturday morning. Over 2 inches here probably close to 3 inches now and up. Been a lot of water falling. Definitely putting a dent into the drought.
  6. roardog
    You could say that this year is its own oddball so far. A record El Niño for this time of year with a still strongly -PDO with a -PDO type of North American pattern. It just makes me leery that we’re suddenly going to see a flip to 1997 across North America. No doubt much of the rest of the globe is and will continue to look very Ninoish.
  7. LakePaste25
    OLR is exactly what you’d expect in July for an E based Nino. Note the convection going north as you go east…that’s consistent with climatology this time of year due to the Humboldt current which impacts Nino 1+2.
  8. A-L-E-K
    Think we manage an mcs into the area at some point but I get the sentiment here
  9. LakePaste25
    15-16 was an oddball. Unusually strong MC forcing in december and in Jan/Feb the E Pac convection was unusually far north (failed to collapse near the equator as it’s supposed to do during winter), which actually enhanced Baja ridging as it was the descending branch of the Hadley Cell. Both of these factors helped contribute to the record warm December and the Mid Atlantic blizzard.
  10. Damage In Tolland
    This is the year. When few are expecting it with a super Nino ( except me who thinks it the year)
  11. jaxjagman
    Actually if you go back to 57-58 it was quite cold after Dec,while NOV like you mentioned was BN,Dec was more severe,but J/F was really cold,if that happens again who know,plus March of 1958 had the blizzard in the east
  12. roardog
    You would think so but even 2015-2016 seemed to have some outside influence and that was a beast of an El Niño with a strong +PDO. We can’t even sniff a +PDO this year so far and it seems the North American pattern is making sure we know that.
  13. Maggie Valley Steve
    I'm getting a little concerned with the repeated rounds of heavy rain. The WPC has concerns also.
  14. WxWatcher007
    You need something to pop off the SE coast from a stalled front.
  15. roardog
    That’s the funny thing about 1997-1998. I recall there being more cold early in the winter than later in the winter which is kind of opposite what you think of with El Niño. Of course November was quite cold so there was probably quite a bit of lake effect that month. One memory for me that stands out from that winter was being on the SW edge of the Arctic airmass that eventually went on to produce the catastrophic Canadian ice storm. We started out with freezing rain but changed to rain before it got too bad.
  16. jaxjagman
    57-58 was quite unique.Nashville recorded the 6th lowest BP reading on record in Feb.Also into April had its 2nd strongest wind readings.There was the big blizzard in March in the east that dumped 2-3 feet along Conte.But it was so cold here that winter JAN/FEB it froze the waterways in MID TN.Plus we had the typical severe outbreak in Dec 57,with strong NINOS
  17. LakePaste25
    My opinion is that it’s such a strong looking event that you leave less room for things such as the PDO to influence the pattern, especially when it can potentially flip. It’s still early in its development. Previous winters the ENSO state was fairly weak so there were more opportunities for competing influences to destructively or constructively interfere.
  18. Damage In Tolland
    Let’s get that cane there into the Bahamas
  19. Chinook
    Today it will be 21-24 degrees celsius at 700mb over part of Colorado,. The highest temperature than Grand Junction, weather balloon sounding archive, has ever measured, is 22C
  20. Typhoon Tip
    Give us some Bahama Blues
  21. roardog
    Also the strong -PDO which we currently have that probably also ties into the MC influence. Globally there are big differences compared to 1997 at the moment and like you said earlier, it probably is NOT for the better if you’re a winter lover.
  22. LakePaste25
    I’m towards the “it’ll be a canonically coupled event” camp. And for the record I disagreed with takes during 24-25 and 25-26 that we’ll see predominate RNA pattern (we didn’t). So i’m not just saying it because I want it to be warm.
  23. BuffaloWeather
    97/98 Nino year was the only one I can find with ZERO lake effect events after Jan. 1st for Erie/Ontario. There were only 4 events total, all before the new year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=1997-1998&event=A
  24. gallopinggertie
    Some stations in eastern Montana could break their all-time highs today. Miles City is already up to 100 at 11 am.
  25. Today
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    Adam ( @snowman19)....as a clinician, this is an honest suggestion....look into this. This is my only contribution to this thread. I have used it as a clinician and a patient, so it's not meant as an insult. I think the latter two skills would be particularly beneficial for you. Dialectical Behavior Therapy The 4 Core Skills Modules DBT skills are divided into two acceptance-oriented modules and two change-oriented modules: [1] Mindfulness: The foundation of DBT. It teaches you to stay present, observe your emotions without judgment, and focus on the current moment. [1, 2, 3] Distress Tolerance: Helps you get through crisis situations without making them worse (e.g., using physical sensations like holding ice cubes to tolerate intense urges). [1, 2] Emotion Regulation: Teaches you to identify, name, and change specific emotions, reducing your overall vulnerability to negative emotional spirals. [1, 2, 3, 4] Interpersonal Effectiveness: Equips you with tools to ask for what you need, say "no" to demands, and maintain your self-respect and relationships.
  27. GaWx
    Ray, Adam, and others, I’m trying not to take sides. I just want the great discussion back in the main thread. Would y’all please take this fight to here in banter? TIA @snowman19
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