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Crazy the Friday storm is in NAM range for 6z run tonight . Glad the gfs is the southern outlier . But 12 EPS does look kind of gfs like .. let’s get this north to include more of New England

I don't think the Euro is king anymore, so I take it with the same grain of salt as the GFS, etc.

I don’t think Boxing Day will be for us but I do like seeing the big warmth not materialize.

Just saw a small meteorite burn up over Coram/Selden at a pretty low altitude, I saw the smoke and everything. Came in like a missile. Not far off from the flight path into ISP.

When doesn’t it with winter storms? This is like old days GFS that was always south and you could predict exactly what and when it would come back north, That’s in fact how we started the north trend term that the mid Atlantic still hates us for .

I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us

Yes but two weeks ago the weeklies had the Christmas Day to New Years period 10° above average. It looks just about average to me now. But of course it didn't happen yet so we shall see.

It is literally the same as 12z for our area.

Still think the Euro leads the way here. I highly doubt this dives into the Mid-Atlantic as a snow event and whiffs us. How often does that even happen?

There are three things in life we can count on. Death, Taxes, and for JB to sniff out a snowstorm when all the models are showing torch (or anything else, for that matter).

GFS keeps the temperature's below freezing even in the city for the entire event!

So far, we have a brand new baby Flash and a Nick Saban connection in this thread. The day just keeps getting better. The point and click below is pretty wild in my book. Is the "thunder in the mountains" rule going to score coming out of this? I am gonna post these here and see how many verify.... My iPhone has my local at 60F on Sunday for a high and then maybe doesn't go above freezing again until Wednesday(not this Weds)!!! The Native Americans noticed Chinooks first in the Pacific NW according to Wikipedia(I did not know this). I am nearly certain the Native Americans of the Plains were thankful for it. In the Plains, chinooks also helped farmers get their cattle through winter. It also allowed for snow to evaporate and dissipate, thus limiting catastrophic snowmelt during spring. It has a purpose. Great article here in this link. https://sheridanmedia.com/news/185207/history-chinook-winds/ It has been scientifically determined that the Chinook wind, falling from mountain to plain is warmed at the rate of about 1–degree for each 180 feet of descent. A fall of 5500 feet from the summit or the Cascade mountains to the wide plateau of the interior will rise the temperature of the wind by about 80 degrees.

It actually eroded the northern edge but the heavy stuff bumped a little north…which makes sense. It’s basically tightening the gradient. Prob a sharp cutoff in this system.

Bad

I GOTTA GET THE BREAD AND MILK!

I thought this run was worse than 12z to be honest

Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event.

Neither the AI or Op GFS changed much from 12z

this one could be the bigger storm of the year. the ceiling is 6-12 on this one if all goes perfect

GFS continues to be mostly a whiff for 12/26-27 but it’s been creeping back north.

JB says it's discontinuous retrogression and 1985 is the analog. I have no idea if that's good or bad for us.

GFS looks great for the NYC metro! Get your snow shovels and salt ready again.

Sleety north. Get that wpf bomb south please.