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Big points for the RRFS, or as I call it, Rufus. It had the I-40 corridor getting slammed for the Wed Eve-Thursday morning period first among the cams.

Thats a good chunk of time lost before any big heat comes back. That picture still looks like NW flow over New England. Isn't that guy from Indiana?

We are also relying on analogs that might as well be from an ancient timeline.

Just 1.21 here

The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.

If you mean no more 100s then most likely but it's only July 23. Heat will likely return sometime in August

58 here. Nice morning.

Nice down here this morning lows were around 60. AC is off today!

August has been super kind to us the past few years. Let’s see if we can keep the streak going. I can almost smell football in the air.

Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2011) NYC: 100 (2011) LGA: 100 (1955) JFK: 102 (2011) Lows: EWR: 55 (1939) NYC: 58 (1890) LGA: 59 (1992) JFK: 59 (1992) Historical: 1788 - A weather diary kept by George Washington recorded that the center of a hurricane passed directly over his Mount Vernon home. The hurricane crossed eastern North Carolina and Virginia before moving into the Central Appalachians. Norfolk, VA, reported houses destroyed, trees uprooted, and crops leveled to the ground. (David Ludlum) 1788: Called the George Washington's Hurricane, this storm originated near Bermuda on the 19th before making landfall in Virginia. It passed directly over the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Mount Vernon, the home of George Washington. This track is very similar to the path of the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933. At Norfolk, winds increased at 5 p.m. on the 23rd with the wind originating from the northeast. At 12:30 a.m., the wind suddenly shifted to the south and "blew a perfect hurricane, tearing down chimneys, fences"...some corn was also leveled. Also, large trees were uprooted, and houses were moved from their foundations. Port Royal and Hobb's Hole experienced a violent northeast gale which drove several vessels ashore. In Fredricksburg, vast quantities of corn, tobacco, and fruit were destroyed. Houses and trees fell in significant numbers across Northumberland, Lancaster, Richmond, and Westmoreland counties. Crops were destroyed, and many livestock perished in Lower Mathews County. Many plantations saw their houses leveled. Homes were flooded with water six feet deep, and several inhabitants drowned. Historical figures of the time logged the storm's antics. George Washington noted the sinking of the small ship Federalist and uprooted trees. Colonel James Madison, the father of the future president, experienced the passing of great winds and rains near Orange. In Alexandria, damage to wheat, tobacco, and corn was "beyond description." The information above is from the Weather Prediction Center and noted American historian David Ludlum. 1898 - A two hour thunderstorm deluged Atlanta, GA, with 4.32 inches of rain. More than a foot of water flooded Union Depot. Many street car motors burned out while trying to run through flooded streets. It grew so dark before the afternoon storm that gas lights were needed. (The Weather Channel) 1923 - Sheridan, WY, was drenched with 4.41 inches of rain, an all-time 24 hour record for that location. Associated flooding washed out 20 miles of railroad track. (22nd-23rd) (The Weather Channel) 1975: Severe thunderstorms affected parts of northern and central Illinois. In Peoria, winds gusting to 85 mph knocked over trees. Two tornadoes affected Fulton County. The first passed through mainly rural areas. The second tornado caused major damage in Canton, where 127 businesses and 100 homes were destroyed. 300 other homes and 100 trailers were damaged; total damages were around $20 million dollars. Two people were killed as the tornado moved through a mobile home park. Power lines were downed during the storm; some areas were without power until the 28th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1979: Intense thunderstorms dumped copious amounts of rainfall over the western parts of Oklahoma. Rainfall amounts were quite impressive, including reports of up to 7 inches just north of Arapaho, in Custer County. Four inches of rain fell in just one hour east of Arapaho and two inches of rain fell in only 30 minutes in Clinton. Many creeks and rivers were quickly forced out of their banks by the heavy rainfall. Floods covered the Arapaho-Weatherford Road with as much as 4 feet of water. More than 5 inches of rain fell in the Taloga area of Dewey County, causing Highway 183 to be inundated by one to two feet of flood water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: Tropical Storm Bob moved across south Florida from Ft. Myers to just north of Palm Beach. The storm then turned north and moved northeast of Florida. The storm did minor damage to roofs and downed some trees, mainly on Florida's west coast. Rainfall amounts ranged up to 13 inches at Naples. Several beaches suffered erosion from Port Charlotte to Marco Island. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN, causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan and northern Ohio, over eastern sections of the Dakotas, and over the Central High Plains Region. Showers and thunderstorms soaked Wilmington, NC, with another two inches of rain, following six and a half inches the previous day. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the central U.S. drenched central Oklahoma with up to six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Fort Smith, AR. Evening thunderstorms over Florida spawned a tornado which touched down three times in south Fort Myers causing nearly three quarters of a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: At Dodge City, KS thunderstorm winds to 100 mph caused extensive damage to fences. One filling station canopy was downed and it landed on two occupied vehicles but there were no injuries. One roof was taken off a house with debris scattered several hundred yards. A large storage shed was heavily damaged with two motor homes inside receiving extensive damage. Debris was carried one quarter of a mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: Thunderstorms produced a record ten inches of rain in six and a half hours at Minneapolis, MN, including 5.26 inches in two hours. Flash flooding claimed two lives and caused 21.3 million dollars damage. Streets in Minneapolis became rushing rivers, parking lots became lakes, and storm sewers spouted like geysers. A tornado hit Maple Grove, MN causing five million dollars damage. Baseball size hail was reported at Olivia, MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003: Boise, Idaho: With a reading of 107°F, a new record was set for the number of consecutive days with temperatures above 100°F. July 23 marks the 9th consecutive day. (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 2006: This was the peak of an intense July heat wave that affected much of California and the NW United States thanks to an intense upper level heat ridge. Fresno, CA was the hottest since 7/27/1933. An all-time record high minimum was set with 90°. In Lemoore, 10,000 customers lost power for up to four hours. In all, 46 deaths were reported with 18 injuries. Eugene, OR tied their July record with 105°. Other daily record highs included: Phoenix, AZ: 114°, Redding, CA: 114°, Sacramento, CA: 111°, Lewiston, ID: 109°, Medford, OR: 107°, Spokane, WA: 102 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Rhode Island: A waterspout forms at about 4 pm just off Rumstick Point near Barrington then moves onto land as a tornado in Warren before moving into the Ocean Grove section of Swansea, Massachusetts. The tornado's path is estimated as 4.2 miles long and 40 yards wide. No injuries are reported, but damage to trees, power lines and houses is reported.(Ref. WxDoctor) 2010: After a severe thunderstorm, a Vivian South Dakota resident, Les Scott, found a hailstone with a diameter of 8.0 inches and its weight was 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches. These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970. They also surpass the record for the greatest diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. But the Aurora hailstone still holds the record for the greatest circumference of 18.75 inches. (Thus the Aurora hailstone was more spherical than the Vivian hailstone.)(Ref. NOAA News Release July 30, 2010 - Record Hailstone )(Ref. See a Picture of the World's Largest Hailstone)(Ref. Info. on the Storm Yielding Hailstone(Ref. See a video About the World's Largest Hailstone) 2011: Chicago set an all-time daily record rainfall when 6.86 inches fell during the early morning hours of Saturday, July 23, 2011, at O'Hare airport. The previous daily record was 6.64 inches set on September 13, 2008.

70 / 55 gorgeous stretch of weather the next 96 hours / 4 days including the whole weekend low - mid 80sand dry. Next shot at rain as the next trough moves through Mon - Tue, similar to this past Tue /Wed warm sw flow ahead of cool front could trigger more storms and the shot at more clearing/sun a sneaky 90 for places. Outside of that heat is south and west - western ridge persists the next week to 10 days, with some of that heat bleeding east towards the first week of next month. 7/23 - 7/26 : Dry / great stretch - below normal 7/27 - 7/28 : Next shot at rain/storms with trough / front - sneaky warmth if more clearing, similar to this tue-wed 7/29 - 7/31 : Next Dry / great stretch - below normal 8/1 - beyond : moderation from below - near normal - above normal with next heat chance in the timeframe after 8/3

It is October outside!!!

Everything @snowman19is pointing out about the magnitude of this event is spot-on, which is why there is hope that the pattern over the N Hemisphere grows more redolent of warm ENSO as we approach boreal winter.

50 this morning. Really nice for July.

I'm glad to see KMPV verified my 48° reading. After I posted it, I remembered that my PWS was taken down yesterday for some deck reconstruction. It is laying on its side on the covered front porch.

Absolutely....basically what I am intimating. I am not discounting that at all.....just pointing out we aren't there yet.

The back of summer may be broken! Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.

Buy.

CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it.

ZERO so far in South CLT. Storms to the north, storms to the south. but NOTHING just north of the NC/SC line in Meck. lol

While many people are enjoying the recent stretch of cooler temperatures and low humidity, this weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for farmers and water resources throughout the Lehigh Valley. Lehigh County is now officially under a Pennsylvania DEP Drought Warning, reflecting the continued deterioration of soil moisture, groundwater supplies, and streamflows. Residents are being asked to voluntarily conserve water as the drought continues to worsen. The comfortable weather is actually working against agriculture. Lower humidity, cool nights, breezy afternoons, and the lack of widespread soaking rains continue to dry out already stressed soils. Corn, soybeans, hay, vegetables, orchards, and pasturelands are all feeling the effects, and each rain-free day adds more stress to this year's crops. Lehigh County already has thousands of acres of corn, soybeans, and hay currently experiencing drought conditions. Another concern has been the apparent pattern over the past three weeks where numerous showers and thunderstorms have weakened, split apart, or tracked around portions of the Lehigh Valley, leaving many locations with little or no meaningful rainfall while surrounding areas received much heavier amounts. Whether you call it the local "donut hole" or simply an unfortunate weather pattern, the result has been the same—many farms have missed the widespread soaking rains desperately needed to recharge soil moisture. Perhaps most concerning, there are currently no tropical systems or significant tropical moisture plumes on the immediate horizon that appear capable of delivering the widespread one- to three-inch rainfall that would substantially improve drought conditions. Many people are enjoying this beautiful summer weather today, but if this dry pattern continues into August, opinions will likely change quickly. Brown lawns, stressed crops, falling stream levels, declining groundwater supplies, and increasing wildfire concerns could become the story of the summer. The Lehigh Valley doesn't need another picture-perfect day—it needs several widespread soaking rains.

48 here this morning.

Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.

our boy josh for sure