All Activity

Folks jaded. As soon as there’s a hint of a cutter/or any mildness around the 20th, it’s the grinch. Kind of getting out of hand, but that’s how it goes.

Steve D says no Christmas warmup

Euro ai shifted north.

That was supposed to happen though. Anyway if we get a warmup it will be brief .

If you read above, I didn't forget, But also modeling is not showing a grinch storm to that magnitude if any to even be concerned about at ATT.

There is an enough variability in the long range not to worry about Christmas atm. As far as Sun/Mon system goes, as a few of us have said…Stay the course.

Yeah, I'm with you. Pretty steady on a 1 to 2 inch event. You can tell an inter-forum sentiment is brewing tho. Gotta keep the Ft Sumter moment from happening tho. But I wouldn't be surprised with this slipping north tho.

How quickly you forget Grinch 2020. 18-36 across CNE/NNE on the 15th to 17th, followed by a cold week. Then 2" RA at 55+ wiped it all out (and with the winds and dews even some manmade trails were scoured off). These are all snow depths; actual accumulation before settling was often higher. Woodstock Vt: 18"-->0" RUT: 18" --> 0" Peru, Vt: 31" --> 4" CON: 21" --> 2" GYX: 11" --> 0" Poland, Maine: 18" --> 0" PWM: 13" --> 0" Bradford, NH: 19" --> 3" Sandwich, NH: 16" --> 0" EEN: 18" --> 0" Newport, NH: 25" --> 2"

The lack of a southern jet is a semi-permanent feature that’s developed through the summer. Models looked like that was flipping coming into the month but nothing has changed. Until we get something coming from the southern stream the ripping northern and pac jet is going to kill us regardless of what cold is available. The ongoing drought is all you need to know about our southern stream energy through the fall. That’s going to be the biggest fail mechanism this winter I’m sure of it

All I know is that while we've got a few inches on the ground now, we are in need of a refresher. It's certainly not looking fresh as this point!

2” as opposed to 0”

It's a 1-2" event. What exactly is the best stuff lol

Be dramatic. This place is boring.

We just went over this a week or so back, I saw pics with folks that had decent pack, It was ugly.

so much for that prediction lol

GRR has had its 5th coldest start to December. Too bad a meltdown looks like it is coming.

I also had to plow my driveway and that always brings a smile to my face.

I have conflicting thoughts honestly. On one hand, the cold seems poised to stay on this side of the globe. Canada is frigid and looks to stay that way through at least the next month. We need a mechanism to keep driving it south. The Pacific is the main culprit here. Its roaring and record flooding is occurring in the NW. It can take a long time for the Pacific jet to behave the way we want it to after setting up like this. A lot of Mets who I respect still think January could be OK for us. There's a lot of uncertainty maybe more than normal due to the conflicting factors I have detailed. Another worry I have is the lack of a southern jet showing up in tne long range. A lot of the models and ensembles are going very dry for the rest of this month. My biggest worry is this pattern sets in longer than we want and the next thing you know its early February. Most of us haven't had an impactful winter storm in February or March in over a decade. I'm not sure it can come a major snowstorm late in the season anymore at our latitude.

Southern VT got 40". I trailered south for a ride as it was all melting. From this to this in a matter of a couple of days.

Was 6" when I left last Wednesday 12/3, and from what i'm hearing, we are aoa 9-10" otg. I'm 3 miles east of potter/tioga border and abt 15 miles S of NY border. Technically way west central Tioga.

This GFS run is a riot major coastal and a foot for interior, then 590 hgts 5 days later off the EC. That's a spring antic man. Typical on an extended range March chart

That shows exactly why I need to be sure to hold onto Pit2 as long as possible. The new Pit1 will suck in the winter!

Better enjoy the cold & snow now. Looks like our chances for a white Christmas are dwindling.

I don’t think a lot appreciated last winter enough bc we were missing the “big storm” but we avoided can kicking and essentially had threats to track almost the entire winter period and had a warning level snow in February. Long ways to go

Humor...That's all we've got left...