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How's it looking up that way @Carvers Gap? TDOT smartway shows some snow on grassy surfaces, but looked like a pretty good band was just moving through.

Honestly, I think only two of us will enjoy the warmer weather...lol

That was before the widespread sentiment shifted to this one having legs. In fairness every bad pattern thus far got can kicked, it was quite recently when this upcoming one showed to been legit.

Interestingly, several overnight runs found another cold front(strong on Euro) right around the 20th. It sure looks like another front is gonna roll through on the 26th. So, maybe this won't be a full on torch? IDK. Modeling today and tomorrow should either erode the warmth or lock it in after the 20th. Last night is a good example of what cold fronts can do during winter, and how modeling can indeed miss. Congratulations to @Holston_River_Ramblerfor going with the thread!!! Sunday looks like the next chance for a sneaky system. I gotta be honest...I wouldn't mind a few warm morning to run. I am gonna need moderation after Sunday/Monday.

You mean the same thing we’ve had since Nov 30th?

Latest NWS

Unreal how it trends in whichever direction porks us...north last week , now south.

Would be sweet if Euro and te HRRR replacement were on to something

Any 12/12/92's???

If it’s not there by 18z it’s flurries and still looking for first 1”. But I still think it’s coming . For now

Euro is funny. Below zero windchills and bare ground for Christmas.

I’m in. Still seeing a 1-3” for this area.

The last few weeks any posts that describe a model run as being a negative to our snow chances gets weenied. I think it's an odd lack of reality for some.

Good bump on 6z euro and EPS. I’d set the over under for Philly at 3” .

Its not going to be a blowtorch. Too much cold air to the north.

For sure. But if it doesn’t, then we know it’s legit.

The month isn't even half over. I was referring to the head-fake strat, cold start followed by a pattern shift mid-month.

Taking a closer look at things.. Beefier Guidance - RGEM - RRFS - EURO6z - These models would bring 1-2" to pike 2-4" south of 84 up to 6" south shore Meh Guidance - Nam/GFS/HRRR .. These models would bring a coating up to rt 2 - 1-2" south of 84 - up to 3" south coast.. Here's the RRFS - it's the beefiest, but more in line with RGEM and 6z EURO Here GFS continues to be the driest

Starting a thread for Sunday so we can talk about the White Christmas here ..

That’s how this system has gone. Every time we think we’re trending good, we see a step back the next run. Not expecting positive trends to start today, but if they do, then that’s obviously a really good sign…esp for S of pike peeps.

Well, first of all, you don't know me...so really not sure how you are positioned to make such a declaration. Married with 4 young children and 2 jobs, I can assure you that isn't the case. But if this is your warped, deranged, and rather circuitous way of implying that I greatly value seeking out avenues of personal enrichment in other facets of life, then you would be correct.

Let’s look at the positives on some things not seen in years around these parts : 1. Early start to winter in December with substantial snowfall and arctic air 2. Storms cutting from the southwest and not suppressing south and east 3. Clipper Train The spell is broken. I’m guessing the Pacific flood will be short lived. This is not an El Niño Christmas

You just know 12z will trim back, the waffle has been almost lockstep

We need another 50-75 miles from scooter to me to you to feel decent. Gotta have the bump today…getting too close.

time 2 torch