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EPS is pretty solid...I think this will increase a bit too as we get closer unless something drastically changes aloft.

Looks like a lego city

NWS Wakefield update from a couple of hours ago:

Models never get a wedge right

@csnavywx @MillvilleWx is there also any sort of legitimate icing threat on the Delmarva, or is it more of a sleet issue?

Sure. 12z Yesterday 18z 0z (Biggest shift) 6z 12z

Dude. We get it. It might mix. You don’t need to keep repeating it.

The profiles are still active on IA state's Bufkit Warehouse and PSU website.

Well... 30+" storms aren't that common...

Given temps this week with 2 inch snow cover, can only imagine how cold it will be up here next week

Some of that is sleet in reality?

It's showing up like that on most soundings....10 to 1 will be way too low to use in this storm imho. I'd go the "cold storm' climo right now of about 14 to 1 but I could see something higher than that too...but you never want to forecast higher unless you're really close with obvious model agreement.

At least 50:1 ratios it seems

I hated that with a passion. Up to a few days prior, I believe we thought we were going to have a pretty decent snowstorm. Not like this, but 6 inches of snow I think? It's been almost 20 years.

Google My Maps. Can draw up polygons, color code them, and add descriptions for each.

define what you consider to be the Coastal Plain.

My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer!

I mean its frankly a ridiculous setup. In any other world where we have a -2.5 sigma 500mb anomaly centered over north/south Dakota we would be looking at a cutter that puts us in a 70 degree warm sector. Instead we are still managing to get a snowstorm out of it!

Now THIS is a crazy temp map

My Snow Map.

The highest 2m temp at Gaithersburg once the cold rushes in Friday thru Thursday 05 Feb 2026 is 25ºF

When I was still in my teenager years and living with my parents in NW CT we had an ice storm where the temp stayed in the low teens throughout. It was absolute devastating. Easy 0.75''-1.25'' area wide. Trees going down all night long in the woods sounding like a shot gun going off. One came down, wiped out our deck and pool. It was pretty terrifying.

got it thank you

I agree it could certainly end up that way especially if it keeps ticking N a bit and its just a front end punch to slot, but right now there's also a lot of potential for much higher numbers - we're still 4 days out from 18Z ish. I don't think i've ever seen you not be conservative to very conservative for every storm we've had and ive been on here for over 10 years. That's your thing, sometimes it works out.

What am I missing on the map below? Thanks!