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Humor...That's all we've got left...

Need it to double-down. Not to be dramatic but if it shifts north more than noise I think we are cooked. Besides the ICON the entirety of 12z has gone that way (some good some bad). Gonna end up a SEPA-NYC special.

No evidence to back this up

It's literally not even winter yet. Calm down. It snowed almost a foot in Florida and the friggin Bayous last winter.

I decided to give the trails at West Woods not too far from NEOH and DTA a visit yesterday afternoon. The amount of snow on the ground in that area was shocking compared to what I had in northern Summit (was down to about an inch of dense snowpack yesterday afternoon), and the gradient is really noticeable between Macedonia and even Twinsburg and Solon. Also, hiking around here is not fun right now lol, need some more snow to cover up the old/packed down ice and mud. Had a 2.1" measurement (which doubles as a storm total) around 8 AM this morning, another quick burst a little after 10 AM dropped a fluffy half inch or so. We'll see if I can get any more bonus snow from lake squalls through this evening down here. Looks like some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Saturday evening with a W or WNW flow as the clipper goes by, which could favor the northern half of the snowbelt. Winds go more NW into Sunday as the coldest air moves overhead which should favor the inland snowbelt yet again. The moisture is definitely best with the first phase of the event Saturday afternoon and evening. The instability increases into Sunday as brutally cold air aloft moves in (850mb temps of -20C or so), but I have some concerns about a shorter fetch by then, drier air at times, and lower snow ratios due to it becoming colder than ideal. I don't doubt that LES will continue through Sunday and into Sunday night across inland portions of the snowbelt, but you may need to get under an upstream connection to get better accumulations in that window.

The 12z CMC is the first run I've seen that fully rounds the base in time to spin up the mid/ULL into Nova Scotia. Too late, yes... but closer. The next step would obviously be for it to happen faster and in time to impact EMA instead of Halifax. ... gotta keep pumping heights out ahead of the trof in Ontario/Quebec.

Not even sure a 6”+ event is possible here anymore…

Probably getting 3-4” but she coming.

At least I took my grumbles into banter, lol

We're a little outnumbered by the southies in this forum, lol

Still waiting on the Euro myself

this is for the panic room. we can't have bad energy anywhere else lol

Nuce snow showers out here today. Dusted. Light snow 33 degrees.

Regarding trend analysis. You should include hypothesis testing and p-values to assess the statistical significance of the trend. Most random scatterplots will show a non-statistically significant linear trend... so you have to analyze if the trend means anything. By visual inspection, the negative trends are largely due to lower-snow years starting in 2015. It could be argued that this down-cycle explains the trend and will be reversed after the next up-cycle. I do believe warmer winter temperatures are affecting seasonal snowfall. But snow is a tricky parameter to analyze and statistical analysis can be very misleading if not presented faithfully.

I can actually agree with this, but don't think it'll be much. You're in a better spot for this if it verifies

might be time for a delete of the storm thread if the EURO shifts badly

Same, but I need other guidance to get better today, or it's time to bail.

This is funny shi.t.

Canadian has seemingly wanted to send it north this whole time save for some wavering last night/this morning so it would be quite the coup for it if we get F’d

The reverse pshyc failed for his area in the 12-2 event... so we're switching things up

What are your thoughts of duration of the warmup/pattern change?

I don’t hate it. You could tell pretty early on it was going to be better. If you could just get it to crank a few hours earlier it could end up being a decent event for many