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AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.

Agree with most of this, but think the second half of December could be interesting. The 2-3rd threat is real, but id favor NW of both of us for plowable snows at this stage. If we can thread the needle and squeeze out 4-8 inches that would be awesome, but those mild early Dec ocean temps are going to be working against us. Still worth keeping an eye on though.

And the ukie aka crazy uncle squashed the 12/2 threat at 12z

The cold air press looks stronger than the GFS/GGEM based off the 540 line location

Yep...ots

Very nice.... weather outside

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

69°

Yeah, all we can do is look at large scale features and sort them out before we start the backyard stuff. Safe to say many/all backyards will be white and thats a big win this early. Verbatim entire sub is gettin some snow. As Mag suggested, its a progressive pattern, so while 6z snowmaps were a virtual pants tent....one should use much caution when observing. IMO 12z a much more believable/achievable scenario. Im headed to cabin Friday, so I'll be looking from afar. Hope you guys can reel this one in for us.

GFS still has 12/2 which is good. GGEM has it but really weak sauce.

Ggem is a light event

the rich need to be romanov'd

that could change can't it?

Are we sure that isn't Mr. Snuffleupagus' trunk?

Is that the Titan?

I'd wait a few more days for this one, It has decent potential with how it evolves, Looks like its cold enough here.

Im expecting that. Enjoy the snow.

how can you look at this pattern and think snow for i95 in early december

Enjoy the rain. Just busting chops. Fun to be tracking again!

Thank you. LBS is the issue though not necessarily for you usually

Did the SSW forecasted for the end of this month ever happen? Lol

LOL. Sucks for us. Still way out there though.

Still something to track

RSTM2 COOP site: M0.47" overnight M1.63" November to date. Glad to see additional precip. Our aquifers need it.