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  1. Past hour
  2. Chrisrotary12
    HRRR is waking up tomorrow and choosing violence.
  3. buckeyefan1
    Congrats on the new house my friend!
  4. CAPE
    Just curious- what do the 30 commas represent? Wouldn't a simple full stop suffice?
  5. CoastalWx
    Looks on target to me
  6. Damage In Tolland
    Looks like it’s somewhat east of guidance
  7. Met1985
    More rainfall on the way.
  8. Chrisrotary12
    This is a fascinating little critter.
  9. CoastalWx
    Line of carnage heading into VT. Will hang here tonight and await Phil here tomorrow morning. Hopefully head north with trees toppling on 93.
  10. snowfan
    Ending a beautiful day strong with some hazzzzzzyyyyyyy NEIPA at crooked crab.
  11. stormy
    We are not going to really feel the coming El Nino until Oct. - Jan This period will almost certainly be wetter than normal. Other stuff is a crapshoot,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability.
  13. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be unseasonably cool with highs only in the middle and perhaps upper 60s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s on Sunday. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -33.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.130 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  14. dendrite
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    New York Post posted an article about Mt. Rainier possibly erupting: https://nypost.com/2026/05/29/science/most-dangerous-us-volcano-mt-rainier-could-devastate-60000-residents/ This is probably the only thing that can prevent another temperature jump from this upcoming el nino. Remember that Pinatubo erupted in mid-June 1991, ahead of a robust el nino.
  16. Today
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance.
  18. snowman19
    @LakePaste25 This is what you were talking about the other day with true, classic low frequency El Niño forcing (standing wave) setting up and sinking/subsidence over the IO and Indonesia for a change….
  19. CoastalWx
    Hrrr violent. Nam meh.
  20. stormy
    I really appreciate your information. It reveals my expectations....................... There is a slow "catch up " time and even then a reluctance to downgrade drought..
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys June El Nino analogs
  22. smokeybandit
    I swear I have a force field around my house. I just had rain and thunderstorm activity within 3 miles to my north, south, east and west. And didn't get any measurable rain.
  23. dendrite
    Lots of confusion
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier.
  25. metagraphica
    Pretty interesting watching this thing drop SSE from Hudson's Bay.
  26. Typhoon Tip
    hm the only thing notable so far about this entry into summer ( anyway) is that utter nondescript characteristic to the pattern. the modelling has almost nothing really fitting a known mode - it's just a mottled mess of irregularly spaced wave features from S of Alaska to the Atlantic at least for the next 2 weeks, it'd be difficult to predictively assess the temperature anomaly distribution
  27. Typhoon Tip
    almost looks like this thing's truckin' along faster than guidance. geesh, we're dry slotting here by 10 pm
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