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Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run: Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov

It's going to be some chaotic modeling with any potential WCARIB gyre until we actually get a gyre and low genesis. Best watch with huge clumps of salt.

How about region 4?

0.29"

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well): Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

Some big potential in some of these.

Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.

Nice morning here with the cold front having gone through-sun in a bit 65 degrees

I’m on the Stein Train.. When it comes to rain .. I can never get enough .. I’m on the Stein train..Lawn and shrubs crashed and burned I’ll be dry like a Stein train Burning from his flame Feeling like I’m in Steins brain One more Stein Saturday night

Pretty 97-98 like, only better. Models seem to be thinking heavy mountain snow, some snow/mix/rain events for the piedmont and mainly rain east.

The GFS has had that storm for days now hitting south Florida but after that it is all over the place.

I dunno... I remember concerns about it. I think it was ERC and something else that weakened it

Tomorrow looks rainy

Heard the pouring earlier - managed to pickup 0.73" Not bad...

Through a third of the month Dep through 10th PHL: + 4.9 TTN: +3.2 EWR: +2.7 JFK: +2.6 ISP: +2.1 LGA: +1.1 NYC: + 0.5

Mean of last 3 days worth of CFSv2 runs has this for Sep 25-Oct 1st:

Euro AI is wet. If Nam was wet I’d buy in more, but this looks like synoptic rains north and convective stuff south. What else is new.

Highs: EWR: 99 (1983) NYC: 99 (1983) LGA: 96 (1983) JFK: 96 (1983) Lows: EWR: 47 (1932) NYC: 43 (1917) LGA: 51 (1967) JFK: 49 (1967) Historical: 1900: The remnants of the Great Galveston Hurricane were located over central Iowa on this day. Eastern Nebraska, northwest Iowa, and southern Minnesota show four-plus inches of rain from this storm. 1942: A line of thunderstorms raced across Minnesota at 70 mph, destroying 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History). 1949 - An early snowstorm brought 7.5 inches to Helena MT. In Maine, a storm drenched New Brunswick with 8.05 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1954: On September 10th and 11th Hurricane Edna crosses Cape Cod and give the Boston area a record 5.64 inches of rain in 24 hours. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1960: Hurricane Donna made landfall during the evening on the North Carolina coast near Wilmington. Winds gusted to 115 mph and the lowest pressure reported with this landfall was 958 mb. Donna would move offshore once again the next morning and regain strength as it stayed just offshore until hitting Long Island shortly afternoon on September 12 with winds of near 100 mph. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1961 - Very large and slow moving Hurricane Carla made landfall near Port Lavaca TX. Carla battered the central Texas coast with wind gusts to 175 mph, and up to 16 inches of rain, and spawned a vicious tornado which swept across Galveston Island killing eight persons. The hurricane claimed 45 lives, and caused 300 million dollars damage. The remnants of Carla produced heavy rain in the Lower Missouri Valley and southern sections of the Upper Great Lakes Region. (David Ludlum) (Storm Data) 1976 - Up to five inches of rain brought walls of water and millions of tons of debris into Bullhead City AZ via washes from elevations above 3000 feet. Flooding caused more than three million dollars damage. Chasms up to forty feet deep were cut across some roads. (The Weather Channel) 1984: (Not to be confused with Diane 1955 Mid Atlantic U.S) Hurricane Diana finally strikes North Carolina coast near Bald Head Island after drifting around the Cape Fear, NC area for two days. Diana made landfall as a category two hurricane, but just the day before, the hurricane had been a category four storm with a central pressure of 28.02 inches of mercury and maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. There were dire predictions of disaster from nervous emergency management officials. Fortunately, Diana stalled and wobbled away from land as it neared the Cape Fear area. Diana was the first significant hurricane to strike the North Carolina coast since Donna of 1960. As the eye passed over Southport, NC residents noted hearing crickets chirping in the calm. Three people died in North Carolina as a result of Diana, but damage was minimal. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1986 - Thunderstorms caused flash flooding and subsequent river flooding in central Lower Michigan. Up to 14 inches of rain fell in a 72 hour period, and flooding caused 400 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) 1987 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, and spawned three tornadoes. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph at Goodnight TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Snow blanketed parts of the Central Rocky Mountain Region and the Central Plateau, with ten inches reported at Mount Evans in Colorado. Smoke from forest fires in the northwestern U.S. reached Pennsylvania and New York State. Hurricane Gilbert, moving westward over the Carribean, was packing winds of 100 mph by the end of the day. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Nine cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Havre MT with a reading of 23 degrees. Livingston MT and West Yellowstone MT tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 17 degrees. Thunderstorms produced hail over the Sierra Nevada Range of California, with two inches reported on the ground near Donner Summit. The hail made roads very slick, resulting in a twenty car accident. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: An outbreak of 8 tornadoes occurred across southern Louisiana in conjunction with landfalling Tropical Storm Frances that was looping along the upper Texas coast. The only known fatality directly attributable to Frances was in Lafourche Parish, LA, where a man was killed when his trailer home was destroyed by a tornado. Six others were injured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2001: Hurricane Erin was off the coast of New Jersey and New York on this day. 2002 Tropical Storm Gustav strengthened to a hurricane over the open waters south of New England. This is the latest date for the first hurricane of the season to develop for the Atlantic on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Ike continued its march towards the upper Texas coast with 100 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 945 millibars or 27.91 inches of mercury. Hurricane watches and warnings went up along the upper Texas coast into Louisiana. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2017: In the days leading up to the storm, more than 6.5 million Floridians were told to evacuate. In a calamitous northward sweep from the Everglades to the Florida Panhandle, a weakening but still monstrously powerful Hurricane Irma battered a string of cities on the state’s palm-fringed west coast Sunday before advancing toward Georgia and the Carolinas.Irma hits Florida on Sunday night the 10th. Irma data 2017: On Monday, a day after visiting lashing rains, surging tides and terrifying winds on nearly every corner of Florida, Irma unleashed flash flooding in three states and left a sweaty, disruptive legacy: no power for about 7 million people. Confronting a panorama of destruction stretching from coast to coast, with rescue efforts still in progress and a massive cleanup only beginning to gather pace, Florida and federal officials opted for frankness: It might take weeks for electricity to be fully restored. The storm’s direct death toll, mercifully, was not commensurate with Irma’s wrath. Authorities in Georgia on Monday reported three storm-related deaths, without providing details, and one person died in South Carolina. An electrocution was reported in central Florida — a grim hazard in flooding’s aftermath. Irma is being blamed for 34 deaths in the Caribbean before it hit Florida, according to the Associated Press. 2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.

I’m on the Stein train.

71 / 60 clouds with showers and areas of rain mainly south of CNJ into SNJ. Clear out by the late morning, humidity drops and highs in the upper 70s low 80s. Similar Saturday dry clear and upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds and showers on Sunday as trough moves through. Ridge builds east 9/15 - 9/17 and shot at a day or so upper 80s / low 90s in the hot locations. Beyond there it doprs back to or below normal 9/18 - 9/24. Watch tropical activity forming Gulf or Southeast / Caribbean later in the month. Beyond there overall near normal. vv v

That was a decent blob of rain this morning. It looks like i got .55