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So far a high of 69. A rare August day staying in the 60s?

up to .38 which doubles my monthly total plus .03

Been thundering here for last 30-40 minutes, waiting for the water.... currently 82.0/71.1 at 3:15 pm.

Ok, well, I don't believe that. It's not 10C (18F!) warmer in a sunny neighborhood versus a shady one if the thermometer is properly sheltered or aspirated. My car thermometer doesn't register anywhere near that difference and it's housed like a foot or so above the asphalt.

Nah NoP.

Record low high temp at ORH is 60. On the hourly we seem likely to break it but probably on the 5 min data it'll end up a tie, barring some late brief spike

I'm actually growing more and more optimistic by the week for this winter. Small positives adding up like QBO, N ATL SSTA, negative ENSO anomalies concentrating east of 140W....still super early and seasonal forecasting is still super high variance, but I'd rather have small positives in our favor than not.

There were a couple folks on here that said that several times. Not sure who they are but they are very fine folks. Big credit to them.

ya looks like we cool back down after a brief warm up.. atleast 90s look to be done for the year here.. I think we had 6 of them? which is well above for here

Actually, weirdly enough this will make the third straight below normal August. What's more striking Is the practically non-existent humidity. Some folks couldn't have been more wrong.

.04" with mist.

.18 at my station

That shows near surface too (the top temperature on it) and there are a million examples online from sites you probably whack to. I will wait for Tips answer since he is actually smart and has the credentials and you really didn't answer anything at all.

Is that an outer eye wall forming? New ERC ongoing?

Congrats HFD and south. . That’s the rain Jack . North of there meh

I think the only thing holding Erin from regaining cat 3 is that dry slot near the center. If it can clear that out, we probably will get some intensification.

Looks like the core is well protected for now. Very impressive MW.

I don’t have pcp amounts IMBY, but we’ve been in a steady rain for well over an hour. Maybe it’s the south shores turn

2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 Location: 30.6°N 73.6°W Moving: N at 13 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 110 mph Nice clear eye now, but some dry air near the center of circulation But the wider view looks like it has good outflow to all quadrants.

GWDLT

0.07

What a way to run an August afternoon

I have Romaine lettuce out there for the fall that I started from seed about a month ago. This cool rainy weather today is great for it. I can see it having a major growth spurt today. It has been so dry over the last month, so it really needed a day like today.

What a beautiful November day

Here's what the prediction on July 1st would have been using this year's data: The sea ice area was at 6.868 million sq km on July 1st which if you take the melt from that point forward of every year since 1979 would give us a final minimum average of 3.0 million sq km. However, whereas the trend for post-July 1st area loss was pretty flat until about 2013-2014, it has since developed into a statistically significant trend, so in recent years, I've used post-2007 numbers to make the forecast. Using post-2007 melt after July 1st would produce an average sea ice area minimum of 2.8 million sq km. We'll see where it ends, but the forecast would've been 2.8 million sqkm (prob around 2.6-3.0 with error bars). For reference, the top 3 lowest are 2.22 million sq km (2012), 2.46 million sq km (2016), and 2.47 million sq km (2024). Area is currently 3.26 million sq km....this late in the season, a top 3 is unreachable. I don't think I'd change the final prediction from what it would have been...maybe shade it toward the higher end of the 2.6-3.0 range.