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Related to this, you also didn't have all the various derived fields, etc., that these vendors now have.

Just grab a couple to turn it into winter again with the coming cold

GFS H5 basically the same thru 60

18z NAM would be great for west/middle TN especially north of 40, but with some many outcomes on the table, I'm not where to lean right now.

Anything beyond 5 days was long range 15 years ago. There were fewer publicly available models, some of which ran only once or twice a day. Most people viewed models on the NCEP site instead of 3rd party vendors where you can quickly toggle between models & runs. Social media was also in its infancy.

This thread is one of the best and it’s only a few hours old.

Ya might be looking at 2 to 4 with that one.. even if Sunday night.misses atleast we get that

One thing I’ve noticed is that as much as I’ve watched these vort loops lately, those vorts near the lakes are not messing around. They’re moving substantially faster than stuff that gets strung out further south. Here today on a run, maybe gone tomorrow. One thing that might have to be watched with some of these runs that trail vorticity back towards the high plains and front range, is some mischief if one gets hung up for a bit while the more northerly parts of the shortwave move along. that could go either way of course: it outruns the cold or gets just enough space to amplify at the right time.

It kind of looks like the better snow threat (at least away from the immediate cost) is Sat the 17.

Snow level is about 2300’ currently. .

Miss! Cut! Just a bit outside! /JK

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

Icon was better but rgem was nice too 1”+

Oh ok I had no idea that the opinion was debunked. Maybe it's just the fact we had more storms back then us throwing me off . But either way thanks for the correction!

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

I think you mean Icon.

GFS loading...PBP anyone?

18z GFS has begun rolling. Most important run of our weenie lives.

ICON and RDPS are 1-4" for Saturday. We take.

NAM and RGEM have a 1-3” event NW of 202 as well. Would really like to at least see something, it’s been weeks since we’ve had anything wintry aside from Sunday’s graupel squalls.

I believe January 85 had a period of bitter cold. That was the year of the Reagan Inaugural. It was so cold the event had to be moved inside there were no outdoor events, including no parade. IIRC windchill was down into the -20's and highs only reached to about 10 during the daylight hours. I remember waking up 7th Avenue for 12 blocks to get to work and it was BITTER and BITING with the wind.

The low in the Lakes is the problem. It was behind the system so not sure if it sped up?

One thing I’ll add too, just based on current wx obs. How much of this stuff on radar right now is virga? IMBY I’d say 75% of radar returns have been virga or much lighter than they appeared to be. May be something to keep in mind with what the NAM is showing for later in the week