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I agree with this. A lot of emphasis in this thread about the -PDO but I think the Arctic had much to do with it. In any sense it likely enhanced the -PDO over the summer.

If the difference is mostly on clear nights with calm winds, then it could just be variations in radiational cooling. Even a very light wind can make a difference between a spot that has completely calm winds. Plus there could be some differences related to varying altitudes. Data for September 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 53.9 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 54.7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 56.5 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 56.5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 56.8 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 57.2 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 57.7 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 57.9 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 58.3 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 58.4 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 58.4 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 58.8 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59.6 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 59.7 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 59.7 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 59.8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 59.8

I mean here is the 6z eps and gefs at hour 90 for both they both look, to my eyes heavier on the western side of things track wise. One of these models is going be more right just who is still unknown.

This has and will likely always be a eastern Nassau County all of Suffolk County storm rain wise, with region wide erosion and coastal flooding with some wind for everyone else.

12Z NAM (12km) an absolute mess

Euro was west. Precip is up at 6z... Tony

Our stretch of below normal temperature days looks to continue through the weekend before a nice moderating trend next week. We look mainly dry through Friday and then we will have to watch what the coastal storm does to see what if any impacts in may bring this far west of the coast. See the ChescoWx vs. The NWS 7 day forecast for EN below.

Our stretch of below normal temperature days looks to continue through the weekend before a nice moderating trend next week. We look mainly dry through Friday and then we will have to watch what the coastal storm does to see what if any impacts in may bring this far west of the coast. See the ChescoWx vs. The NWS 7 day forecast for EN below.

Absolutely perfect sleeping weather. Feels like October! Overnight low here of 48.

That was quite a change from the rain and thunderstorms to a chilly, windy start to January. With the roads still wet and temperatures dropping I imagine driving conditions were a bit uncomfortable especially later in the day. It is the kind of weather where having reliable transportation matters, something I have also noticed when using Patriots Limousine for winter travel. Did the wind stay strong into the evening, or did it calm down later?

That would be a nice track for a snowstorm... but alas

Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19

5H is sick. Man give us this late January

Guess you are throwing out the Euro again.

Haven’t been on in months…I just looked at this Monday night, so before that I knew nothing about it. Was actually nice not looking at this from 8-10 days out.

Maybe we can hit 90 on Halloween.

80 degrees in my forecast, and also for the DC area next week is forecasted by Accu Weather and Mount Holly. Might only be for a day, but we are going to warm up at least into the upper 70's middle part of next week before we cool down again.

Just awful around here with close to 30 inches of rain since 7/1.

Wow! Y’all are killin’ it in the rain gauge. I got close to an inch since midnight, but your totals are much heavier.

Euro still looks pretty good to me

It will find a way to rain on the weekend especially here on the CT Shoreline. Bridgeport has seen rain nearly every weekend going back to July. I bolded the weekend days below to show how consistent this pattern has been. Rainfall Data for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-07-01 1.03 2026-07-02 0.00 2026-07-03 0.00 2026-07-04 0.46 2026-07-05 0.95 2026-07-06 2.85 2026-07-07 T 2026-07-08 0.00 2026-07-09 0.00 2026-07-10 0.00 2026-07-11 0.00 2026-07-12 0.00 2026-07-13 0.00 2026-07-14 0.00 2026-07-15 0.00 2026-07-16 0.00 2026-07-17 0.00 2026-07-18 1.15 2026-07-19 0.00 2026-07-20 0.00 2026-07-21 2.59 2026-07-22 0.00 2026-07-23 0.00 2026-07-24 0.00 2026-07-25 0.00 2026-07-26 0.00 2026-07-27 0.00 2026-07-28 T 2026-07-29 2.90 2026-07-30 0.40 2026-07-31 0.00 2026-08-01 0.00 2026-08-02 0.02 2026-08-03 0.97 2026-08-04 0.00 2026-08-05 T 2026-08-06 T 2026-08-07 0.33 2026-08-08 0.05 2026-08-09 0.00 2026-08-10 0.02 2026-08-11 0.00 2026-08-12 0.00 2026-08-13 0.98 2026-08-14 0.04 2026-08-15 0.00 2026-08-16 0.03 2026-08-17 0.18 2026-08-18 T 2026-08-19 0.00 2026-08-20 1.36 2026-08-21 0.00 2026-08-22 0.02 2026-08-23 2.36 2026-08-24 T 2026-08-25 0.00 2026-08-26 0.00 2026-08-27 T 2026-08-28 T 2026-08-29 0.00 2026-08-30 0.03 2026-08-31 T 2026-09-01 1.12 2026-09-02 0.09 2026-09-03 0.11 2026-09-04 0.29 2026-09-05 0.12 2026-09-06 0.01 2026-09-07 0.00 2026-09-08 0.00 2026-09-09 0.00 2026-09-10 T 2026-09-11 0.00 2026-09-12 0.00 2026-09-13 4.25 2026-09-14 0.00 2026-09-15 0.00 2026-09-16 T 2026-09-17 T 2026-09-18 0.01 2026-09-19 0.00 2026-09-20 0.43 2026-09-21 0.01

The 6z GFS is looking like it may bring the first frosts to higher elevations in the longer range - d10-15

2.26" for the event so far

The record shattering streak of temps of above 60 is ended by a day with a high of (likely) 60. What a turnaround

only 12Z (yesterday) and 0Z map posted - regardless as of now all the significant impact will be from Long Island up into eastern New England regarding precip totals - wind and coastal flooding will have a high impact along the coast all the way down through the mid Atlantic region