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View from their house in WI this morning. The trees are maybe 100 yards from the window.

Down to 37, bottom really fell out fast

Also the wind is going to be cranking tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. We will probably see temps crash fast as the front blows through. Could see some dramatic temperature drops all at once with temps heading to the single digits and teens.

NAM 3k showing some very heavy snowfall tomorrow afternoon around the area as the low blows up over us. This could make for some fun times. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

LOT sticking with their guns, smart move imo.

yeah - these were more fun when I lived in a condo building in downtown DC lol

Was not well forecasted at all. This was the outlooks for that day

Lfg

Big thunderstorm ongoing here. Our cat has made her scurry behind the couch for protection.

I should have mentioned that - yea he’s writing for VA/MD specifically. We don’t have the prime atmospheric conditions VA will have. But that’s mostly for tornadic activity. The QLCS will mix down major winds. LWX mentions this in this afternoon’s write up which I have to say is much more in-depth than CTP’s. Granted however their entire coverage area is in the mod risk. CTP’s isn’t and they have a more dynamic atmosphere than we do. I don’t see tornadoes as much of a thing north of BWI. Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning of the winds with height will make for a very active convective day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability combination will be conducive to supercell development, particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk, the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots, any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range. Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest outlook.

We've got some decent icing on trees/raised surfaces. Temp down to 31F now. Thinking the next batch of precip moving in from S/SW should be snow. Well ahead of schedule (per models).

Wasn't Ian like the first one to start talking Derecho? I remember that day...if it wasn't for this site I would have been clueless on what was coming.

ORD just tagged 60. Should be near freezing there by midnight though

I just finished reading it, and it's an excellent write up. One thing, though, is that the biggest threat seems (per his post anyway) is south of the M-D Line. If I'm deciphering it right, things might not be as bad up this way as previously thought?

Can say we never had a high risk but derecho day should have been for sure.

This deformation band parked over the Twin Cities has picked up noticeably in intensity the last hour or so. More frequent winds too. Might bode well for those of you interested in its evolution over the next 12-18 hours. Measured about 11" otg here when I took the dog out at 1:30. Maybe another inch or so if these bands can stay for a while longer. My parents' house up in the NE corner of WI is at 24" from the band that just finally moved out. Crazy they're in line for another 6-12"+ once the storm ramps up again overnight

12z HRRR was trending colder, but it's currently colder now than it has it at 7 pm. Let's see how this works out.

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

0z HRRR last night. Upper 50s forecast for 7 pm. Didn't quite hit 55 before front went through.

Another person who cant read the pattern ahead. Its a possibility but its slight.

Eps also has some snow. Its a possibility with this upcoming pattern.

Yep, bit surprised at how fast temp has fallen and how early. Models last night were definitely keeping 50s around for several more hours.

One of the best posts you’ll read about this event

Wow... I did make a couple posts on Facebook for friends and family. First one was the graphical maps of the threats as depicted this morning. The second one quoted you anonymously (but indicating a friend's thoughts) a so as not to plagiarize, but to convey the potential severity of the event. Hopefully it's not as bad as what's possible. My caveat...whenever I post about storms (severe, snow, ice, etc) I usually end up jinxing it and eating crow.

Wausau still looks like the winner so far with 24 inches reported around 2 a few miles west of town. With the defo band still to come they may get to 30+ before it's all set and done.