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Everyone ready. We have been waiting for this opportunity for a long long long long time. Ladies and gentlemen. Let's get ready to rumble!!!!!

You know it’s been bad when we’re making posts about having a quarter inch of snow on the ground .

Got a heavy dusting now. Probably close to a 1/4” .

My 1/2 inch forecast has gone bust for MRX.

lol.. .

DT last call

Meanwhile in South Florida...

Has there been much mention in this thread of the Feb 1934 cold records? Today's record low max at NYC is 16F set in 1934. December 1933 had been very cold but January 1934 up until this event had been near average. Then February produced record cold averages and extremes. The strongest of these arrived on Feb 8th with a 1050 mb high over Ontario. By morning of the 9th it was -15F near the coast and -30 to -50 F further inland. I believe both Saranac Lake NY and Bancroft Ontario (150 miles west of Ottawa) had lows near -52F. Lake Ontario froze over completely that winter. Toronto had an interval of 36 hours below zero F and a low of -21F on Feb 9th, NYC was -15F. So I wondered what data there might be for New England. A second record cold spell arrived in late February but it was not that extreme, about like today's values.

This is what the 21z HRRR has for the next few hours. I think it may be off by a little bit!

It was a pretty shallow cold shot. That kept max temps down because of lower mixing heights but the airmass itself isn’t exactly earth shattering.

Light snow started here about 10 minutes ago and down to 30.5 degrees. Only sticking on the deck and bare ground so far.

I’m in Dunwoody and hoping for 2-3 inches

Snow reported in Mount Airy and Danville

We are already getting white roofs. I guess the sun was filtered enough not to make much difference.

Same here. It does not end. We get a few days here and there of 32 plus. Mid Feb a short break but it looks like another cold shot coming right in after that.

Put a piece of wood or cardboard down somewhere (if you really care about getting a perfect measurement)

Getting white around here now probably 1/4-1/3in on trees and grass. The temp has dropped to 28.

Light flurries in Maggie.

AI models don't do particularly well with QPF. They get a general shape of the field but struggle to resolve amounts and detail. I'd focus far more on 500 heights and SLP.

If anyone from NS looks in, BOOM !!!! 40-60 cm potential, the low explodes and tracks ideally to bring S++ bands across the province. Cape Breton could see highest totals. Parts of Newfoundland could see 20-40 cm. These amounts will be wind-blown by northeast 70-110 km/hr winds. Temps near -5 C. At this late hour I still think there is some potential for the outer bands of this storm to back into parts of e MA, there has been a trend towards a deeper-digging 500 mb low over SC now, and you have to wonder if there might be a slow last-minute trend towards backbuilding this storm slightly, but wow such a waste of excellent ingredients unless you are of course in Nova Scotia (Sunday night into Monday Feb 2nd).

as you /we know, many times we score during times of relaxation of trough/nao blah blah. Enough showing that I'd thin suppression depression will work its way back towards MA/NMA instead of the carolinas.

The Ai models shouldn’t really be used for QPF for this reason. H5? Different story.

Yep

Nothing in northern loudon county. I’m about 3 miles from Farragut line. Hopefully it gets here! Schools are already closed for Monday! .