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30 Ridgely Mesonet reporting 28
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24 for the low here
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2026-2027 El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
FWIW, the April dynamical mean is up to 2.06 for the ONI. This is significantly ahead of 2023 and 2016 at the same point. 2023 was at 1.54 and 2.10 verified. April 2015 was at 1.30 and 2.80 verified. So for the 2 most recent strongest El Niños the spring forecast barrier resulted in too weak a forecast. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ April 2026 Average, Dynamical models 0.764 1.120 1.438 1.709 1.763 1.951 2.060 1.856 1.810 April 2024 Average, Dynamical models 0.460 0.785 1.098 1.328 1.406 1.481 1.547 1.473 1.386 April 2015 Average, dynamical models 0.8 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 -
22.7° what a morning
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Don’t see the Pope’s tropical forecast for NNE.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Superstorm replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
25.7F this morning in Lancaster. . -
Chester County PA - Analytical Battle of Actual vs. Altered Climate Data
chubbs replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Very important to remove the station changes in Chester county. The county stations moved frequently and bigger changes were cooling. The station population has cooled with time mainly due a shift from towns to more rural sites. Our older stations are warmer than the county as a whole, particularly in the 1930-48 period when Phoenixville was much warmer than other local stations on summer afternoons; and, West Chester and Coatesville were in built-up towns. I can match NCEI perfectly by; 1) excluding the 3 big station moves: Coatesville in 1946+48, Phoenixville in 1948 and West Chester in 1970; and, by removing the temperature difference between stations by taking station anomalies to a common period. Raw data without the contamination of station changes. The chart below shows that NCEI has met their objective of taking out station changes to reveal the weather and climate signal in the raw data. Of course, if you leave in all the station changes you won't match NCEI or any other scientific analysis. This thread is a strawman based on bad analysis and confirmation bias. -
6z gfs has temps in the 40s with rain on Saturday. Disgusting.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
27 when I left the house, could yet inch lower. Color me impressed. Also had a trace of rain yesterday. Carry on. -
23 we freeze don't worry the heat will be here soon enough and ill be crying
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Bring it!!!! I'm still sceptical though. It is nice to see a change in pattern though. I can't believe how brown it is around here. We basically just got out of dormancy here, and went right back.
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White Plains saw the temperature fall below 30F (-1.1C) this morning. The last time it got at least as cold this late in the season was April 23, 1982 when the low was 26F (-3.3C). The low of 28F (-2.2C) broke the daily record of 29F (-1.7C) from 1981.
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heneedssnow
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Another frosty morning
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30-31 around my neighborhood
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Got down to 28F, last 20s til Oct/November at least Can't recall seeing temps get this low in late April after multiple days of 90+ readings
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Ineedsnow makes me want to piledrive him
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30 here.
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34.3 here, no freeze!
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28° same as yesterday
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
25 here at the house, but looking at PWS's nearby, the coldest in the immediate region is down in the Lizard Creek valley near Andreas and my company HQ. There a station is recording 19 currently. -
28f. 13f at friends camp in Eustis. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
