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IWX just issued a Winter Weather Advisory overnight tonight and Tuesday for the areas that got hit with lake effect. It’s to cover the 35 mph gusts that will blow this stuff around. We’re already getting gusts of 25-30 mph and it’s creating whiteout conditions at times. May get a true ground blizzard in rural areas, especially overnight.

Normally having it be SE is a good thing but both the GFS and Euro and even Icon indicate the storm will have more of a positive tilt vs the negative tilt we need to get precip back to I-81.

The curse of my friend, he said ”Brother did you hear about another one” next euro run, OTS.

Uh...hasn't the main fail mode here been simply OTS/Carolina coast scraper and OTS?

Good news is this has like a .1% chance of being a runner. It’s either OTS or we pull some gymnastics and it’s closer to the coast. No shot this ends up in WV

I didn’t measure to be honest. Drifts everywhere. But there was already a ton of snow out there last night. Easily 18” yesterday around 10 pm. I definitely had some coastal front enhancement here.

eps?

This storm is now up in the archive with snowfall maps, radar, sfc/upper air maps as the 6th 3"+ event of the season. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-18-19-2026

Apps runner???? Nooooo

Good comp for sure.

Coming in late here because of 3 hours plus of clearing our driveway, my neighbors driveway and a spot across the street, plus paths and clearing off 6 cars, followed by driving to work. Anyway, it was hard to take any good measurements at my place as always. Mainly because I live on a small peninsula, and our spot is perpetually caught in a never ending wind vortex of DOOM. Snow was basically falling sideways or at a 45 angle for most of the storm. I finally had to measure a bunch of different areas, including my neighbors (our house sites are very tight together). I came up with an average of 12"-13" total, not including what may be falling now (I'm currently at work) @The 4 Seasons Edit: 27" so far for the season, which is more than last years season total, the year before that total, and the year before that total.

I like the orientation. It's ever so slightly tilted in a way that would want to force neg tilt along the east coast naturally.

11.5" storm total

I definitely had freezing drizzle this morning. I didn’t hear any sleet but if you got pellets up there it’s hard to imagine I didn’t have some too. It’s a meaty pack kinda like baking soda out there.

Ugh, gonna be a pain to QC all this out. I'm hoping that the wind and sunshine today breaks most of them loose. All iced over.

I question the euro bowling ball off Myrtle Beach. Let's get it to Chincoteague.

Tons of uncertainty, but pretty sure this is where we want to be 5-6 days out.

We winter. Over 15” now and hammering at the mountain.

The 12z Euro slp is further west w/ a negative tilt trough. For whatever reason, the surface doesn't respond as strongly. They synoptics are better w/ 12z. I don't think that means much for the western 2/3 of the forum area. This is probably something the eastern 1/3 of the valley maybe has a 30-40% chance of sneaking into the game - if that. 12z left. 6z right.

Shoot, Sunday is February. Sun angle is definitely going to play a role in this one.

I’m talking more-so through current time, that it has not been an East Coast pattern thus far. I probably should have been more clear with that. With the pattern expected to relax a bit coming up to end the month and begin February, during that timeframe the East Coast definitely holds the best chance for a bigger event. The pattern looks to shift and re-load deeper into February, bringing more widespread chances of something better. Until then, we’ll probably be in clipper mode, unless a surprise hybrid pops up.

Lock it in

In other news it's the day after a good snowstorm with the coldest ending to January since 1994 plus the best looking February since 2015 Still not dug out