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  2. Since 2016 in February, BWI has had less than an inch four times. Between 1-3 inches three times. Then the others were 3.8, 5, and 6.1. Just for good measure since 2016 in March, BWI has went 2.3, 2.5, 6.7, 2.7, 0, 0, 0.4, trace, trace, trace. So yeah since 2016 our February and March finishes to winter have been atrocious.
  3. I don’t really buy the late week systems getting shredded. Shortwave buckshot within the chaotic synoptic soup is likely causing issues within modeling of vorticity. One packet should consolidate and push farther north/coherent than operational modeling is currently showing, though the blocking does put a cap on the peak latitude
  4. Yeah and? Euro had a major storm that cycle. And the AIs did not, i knew the Euro op would waffle like that, but I never gave up fully on the threat of something like a scraper.
  5. Interesting tonight but I’m also not buying it yet.
  6. Syosset, NY, 2/12/1983: Bronx, NY (Riverdale) 2/12/1983: More: https://www.northshorewx.com/19830211.html
  7. I agree, we need pronounced shifts in all the major guidance at this point toward a phase. We're 48 hours out.
  8. No-I'm not. I can't wait until this passes so this thread can focus on storms that are threats to New England.
  9. When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point.
  10. Btw my wife just realized there is a Worcester Mass - the way she just tried to pronounce it lmao
  11. The result is going to define the rest of the season. If we do get the 6-10 inch snow solution, I feel the winter might stay a little longer. If it ends up being rain or nothing, then I think the winter is winding down.
  12. Good winters turn great when we find ways to thread the needle.
  13. It's such a fragile setup. Maybe the 10 pieces can assemble themselves this time to make something happen but there's been countless times since 2019 where it didn't or hit somewhere else. But there's the when I'm away rule in place like in Jan 2016.
  14. Where do I sign for the 0z GFS ? This looks like some of the runs that we had several days ago for this Sunday pm chance… Let’s see if we can reel this in…?
  15. NBC 10 has spoken coating to an inch. We will update the map in the morning. Sounds right.
  16. I’m not sure I can remember a storm threat quite like this. It’s such an unusual setup, far from what we typically see. Just crazy how such a small change at H5 in the first 12-24 hours leads to huge differences only a day later.
  17. Half a left eye still peeking, it’s creeping closer.
  18. Been texting you didn’t even think to go on here bc it’s mostly a nyc metro threat as of now
  19. All the phasing is just giving us more cold rain here in the DC metro so let’s hope the GFS is wrong per usual
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