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The energy in the Dakotas is shoving everything out to sea. Hopefully will correct.

I think we are in good shape for 2-4, 3-6 type system.

I think I get the gist of part 1 here, but does someone have a non-Tip explanation of part 2? I'm good up to the "biased/stretched toward said convection" part but get lost thereafter

You have no idea what you’re talking about and I’ll just leave it at that.

How anomalous is this set up though? As the lobe drops into the U.S. it is oriented positive 90 degrees E-W. Tilting negatively to a neutral N-S orientation. Most of our troughs start out slightly positive and tilt to a slightly negative orientation. The CIPS analogues show big hits because those bowling balls over the southeast are in the process of tilting negatively past N-S neuteal and climbing the coast. Wheras this system has already tilted negatively 90 degrees which only gets us to neutral. Thus the escape is primarily east-northeast versus north-northeast. Do I think it is going to snow? Yes. But probably not because the whole thing comes north, but rather the models are under predicting the expansion of the precipitation shield as the storm occludes and drifts.

HRRR has 1/2 to 3/4 inch today

What part of February 2010?

I did qualify the effort with selfy already an hour ago so I think I'm covered

As noted earlier, the 1/28 0z EPS had about 20% of ensemble members showing 6" or more snow in New York City with about 10% having 10" or more. That's within the range of potential solutions, even as it might be a lower probability outcome right now. Going back in time, here are excerpts from two AFDs from another storm that enjoyed some ensemble support while the models were too far to the east. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 616 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010 IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY CONTINUES TO DWINDLE...AS THE LAST HOLDOUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE 1200 UTC ECMWF RUN HAS JOINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS THIS AFTERNOON IN ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL PHASING TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARD TO SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE RETAINED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE DUE TO A BRUSH WITH THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM (AS IT BEING SHOWN BY THE ECMWF/GFS) OR THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM (A BIT MORE LIKELY). IN ANY EVENT...IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH THE THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS WANING. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME WIGGLE ROOM ON THE TRACK (SINCE THE SHORT WAVE PUSHING THIS SYSTEM IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON.)...AND EASTERN AREAS OF NEW JERSEY COAST SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON THIS SYSTEM FOR US...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW THAN A DIRECT HIT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 656 PM EST THU DEC 23 2010 ...MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS EVOLUTION OF COASTAL STORM AND HOW IT IMPACTS LOCAL CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MUCH DEPENDS ON PHASING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THESE UPPER FEATURES NOW ENTERING DENSE OBSERVATION NETWORK...SO EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS 12Z RUN...ALONG WITH FASTER MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER EC/GFS/NAM. INITIALLY THE NAM/WRF REMAINS MUCH SLOWER WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH DIGS. LATEST NAM/WRF AND GFS TRACK THIS LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH MINIMAL QPF ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST ECMWF HAS SHIFTED EAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK AS WELL. AS MENTIONED...SFC LOW MUCH FASTER TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF CLIPS CWA...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE EAST. OVERALL...PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL FORECASTING A FULL FLEDGED SNOWSTORM. WILL CONTINUE TO LAYER POPS FROM HIGHEST SE...TO LOWEST NW ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TIMING...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE WHEN ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...IF IT DOES. STORM MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MONDAY.

Nice find! For context, this analog set is based on the 0Z GFS run. Feb 1989 was a very heavy (in some cases) record snowstorm from GA to the eastern Carolinas and Delmarva, with heavy snow extending up to coastal NJ. It missed NYC and western LI. Two other MECS are in the top 10: Dec 30, 2000 and Feb 1, 2021. At 500 mb the best match (closest analog) to the setup at day 4 is by far the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. Jan 1996, Jan 2016 and Feb 2021 are also respectable matches at 300 mb. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2026012800

Trying to not leave any crumbs behind.

I think reasonable, my plan is to road trip on Saturday/Sunday to where band sets up better residence time

This is bs, how can you have 2/3 top analogs storms with fairy marginal overall air masses vs the severe arctic outbreak we currently have. They must go by a small number of criteria excluding some important ones.

Yeah that’s gonna be a problem. Even down south. I still think it’s the place to be tho. But it’s always something….smoother way to fail.

Low of 4 here. I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

I've never seen so much long range NAM analysis and hedging.

NAM I won't worry about until tomorrow except if a good met tells me the short range out West isn't good for us

It’s chasing another low out to sea the real storm is closer to the coast happened February 2010. It’s the kicker central Canada to Dakotas knocking everything east and allowing a progressive flow to establish and block northward movement.

There are a ton of vorts around. So, a ton of energy. Models are going to have trouble resolving this and while globalist are good to smooth things out, Mesos will need to truly sort these out. This could go boom and capture back west or it could consolidate East. Yet another tough forecast.

I’m usually not this much of a negative nancy but I really just don’t see this one working for us.

NAM would prob still get eastern areas I think…but I’m not gonna spend more than about 30 seconds extrapolating the 84h NAM.

If you run this 500mb vort prog in motion you can see around the Great Lakes the trough pushing a ridge overtop that's shoving our system SE. I think this is fairly representative of all the models. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2026012812&fh=1

No one should take NAM literally, especially at this range. Its usefulness is for trends ,and perhaps, thermal profiles as we approach gametime.

Yes, that is my main concern, that lobe is plummeting south from a position too far east. it will swing down and maybe go neutral/neg, but too late for most of us. except the shoreline and the fishies