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UK is a nice thump, about 0.7 pre flip for dc.

Ya, geting a winter storm at the start of an arctic intrusion is not all that common. School may be closed for most if not all the week in spots.

There needs to be a real discussion about the models and how bad they are even at gametime once this is over. And I dont mean just the board.

Because it is cold out. The rap and ukie have the same idea rn,which is also my thoughts as well. It's gonna snow ALOT!!

Doom and gloom folks: we arent losing qpf, right? Just less snowfall? More sleet and ice? Id think the latter would be a worse impact? .

Alternating between sleet and snow in Soddy Daisy. Temp 27. .

Locked in

12z Ukie looks pretty close to 06z run. Bumping up QPF some as well.

I have been trying all week to understand these model runs. What time is the end frame in this run?

Players still on the field but not looking as promising as yesterday. Plenty of time still. .

The possibility of sleet after 4pm tomorrow in my forecast too. Did bump up my possible snow/sleet total from 5 to 9 to 6 to 10 for Sunday during the day though.

eh, gotta feel for them a little. Nothing worse than tracking a big dog only to have the rug pulled. At the same time though, if I lived there I would always be concerned of the mixing and warm air....it literally comes with every threat they get, so they shouldn't of been too shocked once models started showing it a couple of days ago. That trend always gets worse and never reverses once it shows up.

1/24 12z UKIE Total QPF: Total Snow (10:1)

Ukie looks cold.

Oh the sleet line is incoming lol (damn near every model has it) but I think we dominate the initial round. This airmass is brutal. I’m not playing basketball outside today and that says something.

Uncle:

I think this is a good comparison too. Anyone know offhand what phase the MJO was in during it? I think our being in 6 right now is partly responsible for the upcoming slop storm on the coast. Hopefully we cash in as we move through 8-1-2 during the next few weeks when the cold is around.

Regular GFS does have a signal for something...messy output but still a signal. Hm...after what appears to be a growing debacle tomorrow...we really wanna track this one if it has legs? Lol

12z NAM bufkit BDL....LG....LFG. Look at that thump. And we get consistently good lift through the DGZ for the duration

No model has it right,too many moving pieces rn. And the primary won't be as strong as modeled,and the suppression is undermodeled imo. What will happen is a major battle with cold air and the warmer air trying to fight back,creating intense precip and frontogenesis. Everything down south is runner colder atm as well.

GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount.

Totally agree with this sentiment. Here in hunterdon county I like 7-9 before the sleet, with maybe another inch on the way out. Well North of 80 probably gets close to a foot. Just my amateur opinion. Nam sniffed out the bust a few weeks ago with the warm layer and has lead the way with the push north in this storm. Too early to celebrate its win, but looking like the champion of seeing the trend. Very Nice, typical winter storm for this area; nothing more. .

I'm taking alot of abuse this morning lol, "you have been very accurate this winter but these last two storms you've been awful on your predictions". I'd be wary of the NAM given its been solid on these ideas this season thus far. Right now I'd be nervous about the 6 plus forecast for the coast for sure though it may be 6 plus with sleet included since official climo counts that.

I mean I could say that the NAM/RRFS are trash and we’re all getting 12-18”, but that’s not reflective of reality. I’d rather set myself up for what to really expect and understand the evolution of it. And it should still be a fun 4-6 hours before going to sleet, and what we get will stay for a long time. Not saying at all this won’t have a significant impact.