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October 2026 General Discussion
Torchageddon replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It was wonderful cycling out this aft. I got to 20C/68F with clear blue skies. Last 20C+ day was Oct 13. -
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We knew it wasn’t gonna last much longer…although some thought stein through at least the first half of November.
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some severe weather north and south of Minneapolis
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Here comes the bitch.
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Its everywhere around here and not in a elevated valley.. maybe because the region is higher as a whole?
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Terpeast replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes. I would personally love to run the 25-26 analog back again, even if two KUs had missed my area. Flip side, running 09-10 again might not produce a record snowfall. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Probably right, but you also have to leave open for the possibility that the longer range defaults towards climo. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
EasternLI replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
12Z runs similar to 00Z. 98% EPS. 70% GEFS. Interesting little trend though lately on both Op runs with longer lasting reversals. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold. -
lol…we’re such nerds.
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I mean I enjoy fall colors and snowfall but the older I get, the more my body and mind just love warmer weather. There’s also something really satisfying about not having to use the air-conditioning or the heat.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year. - Today
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Check this colder change from the EWs for week 2 (Nov 9-15): 1. H5 2 runs ago: Yesterday’s: Today’s: nice E US trough 2m from 2 days ago: Yesterday: cooler Today’s: even cooler Rainfall: 2 days ago: slightly wet SE Yesterday’s: a little drier Today’s: even drier with the colder air -
maybe for you.
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Yellow Medicine County, MN - Climate Fact or Climate Fiction?
Cobalt replied to Cobalt's topic in Climate Change
Exactly. The data and its results speak for themselves, for Yellow Medicine County, MN, and elsewhere. -
Central PA Autumn 2026
Itstrainingtime replied to canderson's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It looked like we were finally going to break the dry streak as early as this coming Monday. CTP has now removed all chances of rain (here) until at least next Thursday. Ouch.
