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  2. This is why it’s not science. It’s example giving guesswork with so many outcomes that one will surely hit and funding for status quo can continue. Now the chest puffers who never otherwise pist here will be whistled in soon but models are not weather forecasting tools. They mostly exist to perpetuate themselves. It’s fine that many many more than me enjoy that modality just as it’s fine that I think it’s bogus
  3. March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.
  4. They’ve been performing quite well this winter, gotta say. They did well with the December clipper threats too.
  5. I don't fear the reaper. Bring him in so I can show him a calendar. It may only be a little, but I'd bet it snows here again before the season is out.
  6. Let’s lock in next Thursday/Friday on euro.
  7. Its cutting back rain amounts for sure. Don't like that
  8. I had no idea sunny and 40 could feel so warm! It's gonna take a long time for this ice/snowpack to melt
  9. Sounds like the reaper might need to step in to this thread shortly. The good news for most of us though is that I heard he makes way less than 150K. So that said, we should be safe in here. However, if you run to the panic room, you’re probably fucked.
  10. The AI is pretty good at sniffing…it’s been down on this, so probably gotta say this doesn’t look to good.
  11. Weird mix of rain and sleet just came through lower Manhattan.
  12. Hard to believe it was -5F yesterday morning! Must be one of the bigger day-to-day swings on record.
  13. I see a possible event on the 24th/25th. If that doesn't hit, then it's probably lights out for the winter. The first half of March looks very warm.
  14. The pretty common theme here is people along the coast and in central New Jersey and the city are often pretty quick to call and end to winter in late February. For those of us 30 miles or more north and west of New York City latitude and longitude, most of March is just thought of as another winter month.
  15. Euro back south even more than 06z. Mostly rain for everyone. Low was weaker and didn't pull as much cold air into the system. Not a terrible look, just need the High stronger and the low a little stronger. It's pretty much looking like a Miller A rainstorm at this point. If this trend keeps up that low may track right across the Gulf.
  16. yep just a rain storm this go around....
  17. Up to 50F now. First over 40F reading since January 14th (48F), and first 50F since the 13th.
  18. We got less than 1” QPF from both big storms combined here. Severe drought and in serious need of one of these events to not dry up 48 hours before
  19. Well- at least we won’t be envying Norfolk getting another 12” blizzard.
  20. Yeah AIs wanted nothing to do with this system from the start, red flags
  21. I want a snowstorm just like the rest of us, but every model has been trending towards Euro Ai which has been locked in our a miss to the south.
  22. The map doesn't show a snow hole over central Union county NJ
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