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MRX Snow/Ice maps. They apparently see the downslope and cold banking along the Plateau. You can look at this and probably guess Advisory vs Warning if they ever actually get around to it.

My thoughts haven't changed too much overnight. Cooler air arrived a few hours more slowly than had been modeled overnight. But overall, things remain on track for a frigid start to the weekend and a large storm on Sunday into early Monday. The overnight guidance reached consensus that the snow that arrives on Sunday will eventually change to sleet in much of the New York City area and its nearby suburbs. A few of the models cut back on QPF. Almost 95% of EPS and GEFS members show 6" or more snow in New York City. In the bigger picture, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. It remains likely that New York City and nearby areas will see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly today. Whether or not changes will need to be made remain to be seen.

NWS just updated forecast Ft Meade MD @ 6:15 a.m. what blend do they use?

RGEM mixes us at the same time/hour as the Euro does. Gives us 10" areawide before mixing. I'll take it!

Oddly the NBM says I'll be getting more than the map or the text forecast.

Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe.

Im going to try to get my atlas back on wunderground at some point tommorrow… im finally moved in enough to work on things i want to do instead of what my wife insists me on doing [emoji23][emoji23] .

It’s kind of a shame the locals aren’t really part of this experience any more. Maybe it’s because there is less reliance there….but also no one really jumps out as someone that caters to enthusiasts. For example - KDKA seems like they have a fun met room, but no one is breaking down models and scenarios. Although Ray P did have a bit of a funny X post. Basically said “my forecast is 6-12”. It’s conservative due to a few wild cards, and will probably go up…but don’t ask me about someone else’s forecast. Ask them!”. Obviously he is likely getting bombarded with questions since weather apps had been flashing big numbers for days.

For those interested in the NBM, this page allows you to pick the parameter on a dashboard page, and it provides you the model blend for that particular hour's model output. It does change depending on how close or far our the forecast range is: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

I think that’s just the vendor ptype algorithm. I wouldn’t take it too seriously. NWS hasn’t even mentioned big ice potential for our area.

Rgem was a little of both. It did trend a little SE with the whole thermal boundary but then it also death banded us.

A little south correction on some of the models too from the looks of it?

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

Better agreement with their forecast, at least.

Yeah I think in general this is not being emphasized by the NWS, but in time they will.

Better shovel or snow blow before the gunk or you will never move it.

Will lean on the RGEM and 3K NAM for precip types. Even an hour difference if there are heavy rates makes big difference in accumulations and the globals won't nail that to the hour as well.

Agreed, it is still going to be a great storm. IF the Euro verified with that kind of Fr rain, it would be catastrophic.

NAM is usually closer to right than the other models but it can be too aggressive with it. In Dec it had me mixing but I never really did.

Guidance is trending towards a colder start and a better band out ahead early Sunday. That’s limits the “bust” potential. But we’re also losing the big upside as pretty much everything except the gfs (and we know it can’t see mid level warmth) changes us over now so the 15”+ type solutions are totally gone now. Things have narrowed in on a 6-12” snow to sleet event for most of the area.

06z GFS and Euro seemed honed in on the evolution of the storm with GFS still faster. Both show front end snow for NC and then the fun begins. Didn’t check thermals. Got to get to the hospital for storm prep. NAM…IDK what it’s doing.

Tomorrow you’ll likely have 20.+ in a zone

i was just thinking the same thing. The watches encompass the whole event, i dunno my guess is those maps imply event total regardless of the timestamp at the top. Litchfield county? Definitely would be in the higher end of that range and will probably be in the 12-16 final call. I dont see how northern CT, esp Litchfield makes it out of this with anything less than a foot...but 8" is definitely the basement, i think the chances of a rug pull or near rug pull are virtually zero.

I ran thru the entirety of the gfs run…. I dont see above 37 degrees until maybe mid Feburary…. And if we get snowpack next weekend… i may not even see it then. .

6z GEFS shows support for next weekend