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Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

The GFS ended up with multiple fronts and a couple of shots of wintery precip for the forum area.

'Next to December now. And still got 3+ in. hailers (and likely over 80 DBZ reflectivity and 55 Kft storm tops), in the state just east of Laredo an hour ago..

AIFS suppressed. Toss. EURO amped. Average them out

Over in the MA forum. Sometimes I get lost...

Where is the snow map?

0z GEFS is slightly drier/south compared to 18z. So the GFS and GEFS moved towards each other this run.

A thing of beauty upstairs too.

GEFS is awful.... ...if you hate snow! There's a substantial increase in the mean from 18z and 12z.

So ugly. What a brutal game.

Gefs look as good as can be expected at this point imho with the threat.

midnight and there's a fuck ton of people online. it's winter already

UKMET = very nice

UKIE also a substantial hit 5” when the run ends with more to go

Ukie is also on board with the storm along the front.

Damn I thought we were canceling December and winter as a whole 3 days ago

The GFS retrogrades the CA ULL west into the Pacific. If that doesn't happen, the longwave flow across the US would be significantly altered. Our downstream weather is extremely sensitive to the modeled evolution of the western trof over this period. Could still end up balls cold or periodically torched days 6-15.

We have been talking early start to winter since October! Would be wild if it actually verified

Nice ridge out west and plenty of cold. What a turnaround from the models.

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor.

The 0z GFS is an absolutely filthy glutton for snow. I'm going to pretend I didn't see the extended run and keep my personal focus on the mid-range.

It is based on RMM phases not specific to La Nina or El Nino. Phase 8/1 doesn't become as conducive until we head into January and February for the east. I wouldn't expect blazing temps but I certainly wouldn't expect downright frigid outside of the colder period until about mid December/3rd week. Still feel pretty confident in the warming potential as we move into christmas week and the new year. Surely things can change and it will be interesting to see if it does but overall I would expect near normal through much of the east with above normal across the SE. The true test will be what happens with the December 2nd/3rd system and how that sets up. We will be able to see if the models are overzealous in either direction with respect to the SER or cold pressing into SE Canada.

Legendary early season GFS run.

The UK is also an excellent run at 0z (both surface and aloft). Supports the GFS - maybe slightly better even.