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It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You don't need to convince me of that...I just spent an entire weekend writing about it...but by the same token, you can't go on about how low of a correlation ENSO has this time of year in one post, then read too much into the current disconnect RE winter in the next. -
might see something in the gulf but low odds overall. Kind of good we don't need a 10 inch rain fall lolz
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models are unimpressive unless you're N and W
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^I love my Tempest. Easy set up and hasn't let me down in almost a decade.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Eskimo Joe replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
For the uninitiated ENSO folks like myself, that's not a favorable pattern for east coast snow, correct? That puts a trough near the Inside Passage which floods us with Pacific Puke? -
Earth Quake they say
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Like a science fiction movie!
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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand
forkyfork replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
put all the consumer whores in concentration camps -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don’t know if it would matter for the NE US, but I don’t see evidence that a rapid collapse in itself would necessarily hurt. -
Low confidence really, I think outside of far west areas if the warm front from 1-5pm does not generate anything we may see nothing but a weak line of showers after 8pm.
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If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck... https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Eskimo Joe replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I would imagine that is not good for east cost snow lovers? -
This sounds incredible.
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I know you're typically pretty good about providing links for things that you share on here - do you know where this info came from? My understanding is that solar is a tiny fraction of total energy generation in New England with gas and nuclear making up ~80%. This link, with the most up-to-date info pegs solar at ~4.3% and renewables in total at 13%: https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix I'm inclined to think that Massachusetts as a whole would use more than 13% of all energy production in New England (assuming they used all the renewable generation alone). I'd be curious to see how that math works out if it's accurate.
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It is quite wild that Dolly is the next named storm as has been said. It’s virtually impossible based on history and I realize we still could get her within a few days from Invest 96L, but what if the rest of the season were to be so amazingly quiet that we end up not even getting to Dolly?
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes the CFS has been forecasting a rapid collapse starting as we go through especially the 2nd half of Dec. But it hadn’t earlier forecasted that most of August would be this flat. -
Whats the timing 9f storms tomorrow? Mainly afternoon?
