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No doubt ! Temps into the lower to mid 30’s. lol I hate this hobby. J/k .

I believe that there is some validity to this but how much...??? That's a lot of energy being transferred down to the earth during that storm.

It keeps flirting with all-time record lows. Getting any models to show -20s in this area is remarkable.

I heard him say slight chance of rain snow showers.

this post was barely literate. As others have said you need to watch for the mid level warming here based on placememt of 850 low. Valentine's Day 2007 temp never got above 25 and it was a sleet fest. I don't think that will happen here, but it isn't as simple as a storm plowing into cold air. and I think that EDuggs posts are good--certainly better than yours.

My bad on the sloppy pbp. I was cooking (shrimp fetuccini alredo!) AND screenshooting. Panels were in that order because I'm dead serious. SV will jump from like 81 to 105 with zero panels in between and start filling in while still advancing. I like the fast output but they could at least fix the algorithm to make it pop in in order

Yea Juno was 2015

Thats actually... not that bad! I'll take it. Is it just American models that get recon data, or do Euro, UK, Canadian, etc., get it?

By the time you mix, if you did, you'd be sitting on a foot of powder at least. Your pack would be bulletproof in the cold that comes after...

Gonna be some nice polar cold here for sure but we’d probably really bottom out if the snowpack was deeper. ~4” otg imby

Thanks for this, friend. I’m expecting sleet at some point, given the map Snowden just shared above. While I have the latitude and elevation, I have found being on the eastern side of Parrs Ridge, I get sleet more often than not. However, I will also get the higher ratio snow in the WAA part, so it balances out.

Way I see it.. I prefer snow .. but...sleet is better then rain!!

You can still see a handful of members that would get a secondary going. It’s on life support, but not gone entirely

Two maps while we wait for the 0z cycle to kick off: Threat of Heavy Snow: Probability of a Major Winter Storm Impact: It should be noted that within the next day or two, model skill in handling synoptic details will improve markedly over the current lead time. That process could accelerate somewhat with tonight's reconnaissance flight.

Than maybe 2015 was Juno?

That’s very cool! The communication of the numerical guidance in one succinct graphic! Awesome!

If this is turning into a SWFE those caveats apply. We need the snow to come in like a wall which hopefully we can make happen into a big high/overrunning surface like this, and it’s a race between the warm mid level air and how fast we can accumulate. The mid levels couldn’t care less about how cold the surface is. If we have 700/850 lows going NW of us and late transfer we will mix. But there could be a lot of snow before that happens. Plenty of time for trends in either direction and if the full phase happens we need the confluence or it will try to cut.

WB 18Z EPS looks good too.

@wthrmn654 @Blizzardo https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02092013 good read

He had 1” I saw

Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.

Think this forecast discussion from KFFC is really well done. Talks a lot about their feelings on the northern trends of last night and context around that. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&glossary=1 Used to live in ATL area so tracking for family there, but no dog in the fight now certainly makes it easier to stay level headed. Really hope some of you guys score.

I'm just looking at the same stuff y'all are, hoping the GFS is closer to accurate. That 18z run put about 4 inches of snow down at TYS before switching to half inch of freezing rain and then back to snow for 3 more inches. That's with the cobb snow algorithm. Temps in the upper 20s through all of it until crashing to zero Sunday night. That frozen sandwich would be around for while. Better than pure ice, and better than ending on rain!

Ryan blew this