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who cares if it is.. above normal isn't hot this time of year.. unless its way above and it wont be.

Nice day today here before 3 days of garbage.

Everything on satellite would suggest this is a TC this morning, and a ship observation of a westerly wind near the center would suggest this is a closed low. Recon will confirm I guess. Given its size and more symmetrical convective appearance this morning, I don’t think dry air has been too impactful yet. It may have a higher ceiling as @Windspeed suggests, but we’ll see what recon finds.

That exact same paragraph is carried over to this morning's AFD. "Latest guidance"? NWS and CWG disagree on storm chances today: NWS has a 40% pop for central Fairfax, CWG downplays it: "Can't rule out an isolated evening storm, especially north and northwest of the Beltway." Decided to live dangerously and leave the umbrella at home; let's see how that works out.

What a doosh . Wow

Another casual 1.3” overnight. 12.9” for August now

I'm encouraged given the favorable things in place. Then again - we have been burned many times by so many different failure methods. Will be curious to see what guidance looks like as we go forward in time and how the AI/ML guidance trends.

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.

Interesting...didn't know that. Confirms what I had already suspected about this December. Maybe that is why El Nino Decembers are usually warm....not so much about El Nino itself, but some of the intervals of -SOI that goes along with it...though, I guess it really doesn't matter.

More evidence that the ridge is operating independently of ENSO as we have seen this summer regardless of ONI, RONI, MEI, and SOI. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

Yes

Picked up 0.19" of rain this morning. A station 3 miles to my south received 0.86". Up to 8.25" for the month. Maybe we can reach July's total before this day is over. Only need another 0.15". Looking forward to amazing dew points this weekend especially after this hot and sweaty week ahead.

Eat shit

Did you have thunder?

beach weather for hearty New Englanders

That line blew up at I-84 as it moved east; got woken up to FL like downpours around 10.

No storms unfortunately

Congrats you to Dendy. Couple inches of boring rain

Did a downpour poo overhead? When I went to bed at 9, there was a shower line showing to the NW

If you look at ensembles it’s AN thru mid month especially this week and then after the 10th

0.08” in Sunday evening’s 15-20 min pop-up Columbia shower. 4.22” for August thru 8/30.

Occurring during such a strong developing El Niño made this even more extreme relative to what has occurred in the past.