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Wait, in the desert?

Oof, yeah that would be a problem.

Frederick, MoCo, Loudoun, Fairfax, DC bullseye on 3k NAM. A lot more to go. Hrrr quite a bit drier but still respectable.

Whereas historical stats certainly agree that La Niña is quite possible in ‘27-‘28, that same history says that there’s actually a decent chance for either neutral or, believe it or not, even El Niño in ‘27-‘28. Here’s why: El Niños peaking at +1.4+ occurred in the following 19 fall/winters and were followed by these: +1.4+ Nino: subsequent fall/winter ENSO 1877-8: cold neutral 1888-9: strong Nina 1896-7: cold neutral 1899-1900: warm neutral 1902-3: moderate Nina 1905-6: weak Nina 1918-9: weak Nino 1930-1: cold neutral 1940-1: moderate Nino 1957-8: weak Nino 1965-6: cold neutral 1972-3: strong Nina 1982-3: moderate Nina 1986-7: moderate Nino 1991-2: weak Nino 1997-8: strong Nina 2009-10: strong Nina 2015-6: moderate Nina 2023-4: moderate Nina ————————— So, these 19 +1.4+ El Niños were followed by these: Strong Niña: 4 (21%) Moderate Nina: 4 (21%) Weak Nina: 1 (5%) Cold neutral: 4 (21%) Warm neutral: 1 (5%) Weak Nino: 3 (16%) Moderate Nino: 2 (11%) ————————— Tally: 47% Nina 26% neutral 26% El Nino ——————— Conclusion: La Nina is the best single possibility for ‘27-‘28 due to its large plurality (being at 47%), but neutral or even El Niño are obviously each quite possible as the two of them, combined, actually have ~same chance as La Nina. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

That’s funny you posted that. In between bands it definitely seemed more mixed.

I posted this in the other thread but these soundings off the Euro are certainly problematic.

In this case you want to be on the north and northwest side of this storm. it’s way different than Sandy which was moving WNW and had a high to the east causing strong SE flow.

Pretty well mixed in the boundary layer. This would be problematic for sure.

I've struggled up to .07" total for the event.

Thats a bigtime impressive damager pike South

Can look at it on Weathernerds. It’s labeled GFM and then the one that has been superior is called weathernext. It’s labeled as GDMWNV3

If the Euro and others are right about the track, there could be some serious coastal erosion.

I think there is also some potential this could become a deeper storm than what is being advertised now, especially given it starts warm core and how it may take its time transitioning to more of a cold core. Another factor in this too is how the upper-level wind field evolves. At least on the Euro, look at how the structure of the ULJ evolves...that is very favorable for enhanced diffluence aloft which would further factor into the strengthening of the storm and wind fields. Lots of interesting processes will be undergoing with this thing. Sexy science at work

What do you have against miserable weekends?

Polo's eye has warmed dramatically. Also, lightning data has erupted with a distinctive ring that we find on the most intense eyewalls. Also, recon is en route.

Yeah, as we get into high-res range, we may see some big totals forecasted. A more organized system meandering west with dynamic bands could create some serious localized flash flood issues.

I started a thread for posterity. This looks like it's going to be pretty impactful.

Yeah we can't ignore the rainfall aspect of this. This is a setup in which models (even the more aggressive models) could underplay rainfall totals. As impressive as the Euro is with rainfall totals, it could still be underdone (taking verbatim). That is a continuous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and the system takes its sweet time occluding. There could be a swath of some substantial rainfall totals.

2026 Atlantic Season to date: Pretty feeble. Nothing much is likely to change before the end of the month. We'll tack on another tenth or two of ACE before Fay gives up the ghost. The lack of a hurricane this season looks like a lock to continue for balance of September. Will be up to October / November to produce a hurricane.

Definitely agree that we need to take the earlier seasons with a grain of salt because the technology wasn't as good. For 2005, we can say for certainty that the ACE value was between 245 and 250. [In 2024, I did a calculation on this season, and it came out to be 247.65, which is #1] 1933 has a wider variance, between 213 and 258. [In the same 2024 calculation, I got 235.785, which is #2]. I actually think the 258 value from NOAA is an overestimate. Here are the Top 11 ACE seasons from my 2024 calculations: 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 As for 1914, the mid-September storm was the biggest one for that season (that was almost Hurricane strength). I believe they did a reanalysis in 2005 (oddly enough, the most active season), and they couldn't find anything more. There might have been another one or two more storms, but I'm almost certain none were as big as the mid-September storm.

It’s not so far-fetched when you consider a much weaker event in 1982-1983 lingered into June and July 1983.

Scott is deep mind something you have to pay for?

Since it's becoming increasingly likely that a nor'easter or hybrid storm impacts New England, and possibly significantly, I think it's time for a breakout thread. October is usually when we see these kind of systems in New England, but this year we're seeing it early. For days, there's been a signal across guidance for some type of storm development off the east coast, and the players are starting to appear on the field. A look over the western Atlantic this morning shows an expansive area of disorganized convection. What's notable here is that in a historically quiet season in the Atlantic, where it has been difficult to get convection to fire, despite the generally hostile basin we have a window for a shallow warm core system to develop out of this. As the tropical guy, I'm actually not going to spend too much time over whether this becomes a subtropical storm, because as I noted yesterday, the NHC is highly unlikely to ever designate this, even if it looked ST. Despite not being tagged by the NHC, the guidance does seem to start this out as a warm core system, even if relatively shallow, though the 00z Euro is a bit more aggressive in maintaining a warmer core for longer. While most guidance has kept the storm closer to the coast, the GFS has waffled on whether it scrapes the coast or provides a more solid hit. It's an outlier, so this analysis is based on the current "consensus" across most guidance. Our storm system will gradually take shape, with the convection currently off the coast organizing into a weak low. From there, we see some energy from the tropics--perhaps something that would have been more likely to form in a more favorable Atlantic--get pulled into our developing coastal. From there, we see a faster pace of organization as our low consolidates as it moves up the coast. One thing that I'm interested in seeing is if this tropical feature coming up from the south becomes stronger/more organized. The trend on the Euro recently has been yes, as evidenced by the trend gif I'm posting below. Maybe it doesn't matter in the whole scheme of things because it's unlikely to become a tropical cyclone on its own, but it's of some interest to me. Critically, as energy dives in from the west as well, our newly energized low is blocked from being kicked out to sea, and is forced to hook west and meander until the escape route opens up again. This is where we get to impacts. The first thing to analyze is how strong this could get. Pressure falls are modest, and aside from the latest legacy GFS, most guidance gets the low down into the 985-990mb range. I will note that some of the AI GDM and WNV3 ensembles have stronger lows right up under New England on Sunday and given their general performance that may be something to watch as we get into higher resolution range. Regardless, this is likely to be impactful, especially for coastal areas for a few reasons. First, the pressure gradient between our low and the high to the north will create a persistent flow that likely lasts through the astronomical high tide cycle. That could bring significant coastal flooding. Moderate to major coastal flooding is already predicted for Mid-Atlantic areas. The gradient will also be a wind producer. Each model, regardless of track, has long duration windy conditions, especially in eastern New England. How far inland these winds get will depend on track of course, and how much mixing we can produce with a strong LLJ associated with our storm. These are 925mb winds on the 00z Euro And here's the (wrong) GFS. The wind and coastal flooding may be bad enough, but the biggest question IMO is rainfall. I think with a more substantial warm core system we could see higher totals, as we'd likely see a more organized storm with tropical characteristics like banding. The Euro has hinted at big rainfall totals over a few days in eastern NE, and AI guidance has painted a wider area with modest to significant rainfall. In fact, areas up the New England coast are favored for meaningful rainfall--something that folks haven't seen in a while. Bottom line: this looks like a pretty significant storm that could impact New England. There's still a lot to sort out on exact track and intensity of the system, and how organized it will be when it reaches out latitude. But the signal for something is growing, and an OTS/low impact track seems increasingly unlikely.

It looks like it is still warm enough to be a warm core storm that will transition as it moves north with the wind field expanding like Sandy did. But all that churning and slow moving is going to cool the surface. My niece is getting married on Friday afternoon in Newport in a fancy ceremony. I feel bad, but it might be interesting.