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what time does the Euro AI come out?

Ok. I think we’ve paid our dues and hit our deductible with Dr No. Now we’re sitting here in the waiting room to see Dr Yes. Come on doc! Fix us!! We’re all in pain. And oy! My back is killin me too.

Looks like George Washington sent some strongly worded PMs to Randy.

I said it wasn't over on modeling...but in the end it will be a graze...following the script.

I just want improvement, but by more than 5 miles NW. Don't need a massive hit at the moment.

How bout' an EPS trend gif before its 12z cycle? Definite improvement on the mean since yesterday's 18z run. I wonder if models over corrected last night given some sort of data assimilation feedback... We'll see!

Euro/Skynet double team?

This is back to 50/50 for most if the Euro makes any adjustment NW, otherwise hold weenies. We've seen countless times, for whatever unique factors of storms in the past, we lose mid range modelled storms only to revert with time. I don't know how scientific that observation is in reality but for now that's a reassurance for tracking's sake.

You guys might want to take a look at this scene right now in the Village Level at Mammoth Resort! People digging snow amidst 4-5 feet of accumulation. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village

I was bummed this morning no doubt when the overnight modeling folded to the EURO like a fatty on a cheap lawn chair. I’m not sure if this is coming back in earnest however. We need some cross model agreement and it has to be for more than one run. Beware of the blue ball cocktease is what I’ll say

updated

bentcarrot.com?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a stalled monster off the Jersey coast by tomorrow's runs.

12z scorecard. UKMET is deep inland runner and likely too warm. GEM is money track. GFS is more of a coastal but close. ICON is snow showers and light upslope here. If I could wish cast, I would take a blend for MBY.

AIFS is on board from northeast Tennessee and points north and east. Upper Plateau would still need more help. Euro gins it up farther east, but I think it tried that with Giannis. While I don't see Chattanooga involved this time, I'm hoping for something like the GFS (or overall blend). Still need to get some ski runs in up at elevation. WPC has minor impacts probs already for Sunday and Monday. I like the same areas.

We also need Friday’s storm to get out of the way to allow heights to rise on the east coast. Otherwise even a very amplified system is staying mostly south of PA.

According to some on here, It doesn't matter anymore.

i’ll be shocked if this turns back into a sne blizzard. I’ve thought from the get go this should be plowable but not memorable. It will feel great to be wrong though…

At least this isn’t (right now) a narrow sliver of precip. There should be good moisture to work with. Need the thermals to cooperate

Indeed. Good catch. How has that model been this winter? Like the GEM, it had almost nothing at 0z. Much bigger and deepening solution. Even w/ the UKMET solution, I would think heights would crash quickly w/ a storm going that big. Maybe a late bloomer? IDK.

Curious if we'll see a Dong of Destiny or if the Bag of Asses will prevail. Just trying to leverage some of my new-found meteorological jargon I've picked up here.

You just posted 2 sets of maps from different models of 4 consecutive runs showing......trends.

As we continue to desiccate down here on the Plains, February climate numbers to date indicate that DEN is tied for #1 warmest (43.7 average, +12) and is #1 for both driest (trace) and least snowy (trace) since the 1870s. Hopefully that will change.

15z nbm