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Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter? not much. But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go. 2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March 2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6" 2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march 2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA 2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March 2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here 2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here 2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March. 2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks! But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th. Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow. I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it. They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.

You are constantly harping on this. Sure, the overwhelming majority of MECS and HECS have occurred before Feb 20th but to say there been little in the way of any snow during the last 1/3 of February is simply not true. Your own words are "very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks". You couldn't be more wrong and I'm not trying to be nasty. Please provide data or do some research before making such a bold statement. I'm only calling you out on this because you make reference to it quite often. Just take the last 40 years. 1986,1987,1993,2003,2005,2007,2014,2015,2021 all saw events and some of those years were quite snowy periods. There were many years with close misses that still yielded some snow for certain parts of the region or had significant storms the first few day of March such as 1984,1994,1996,1999,2009,2011,2017 and 2019. My set of years are based from Feb 20th through March 1st. If you include the full last 2 week of February like you did in your post then your position worsens greatly. 2013 got a little snowy for NW and of course the epic fail the first week in March. This isn't even including countless C-2/3 inch events not even worth mentioning.

The question is if we can continue this slow pack build up or if we start getting some rainers mixed in.....I do think we'll definitely see additional snow events. But if we pseudo-cutter next week and have these seasonably milder days mixed in, then you start melting back the icy grip winter has had on us....whereas if we only do a little bit of maintenance melting, and then smash an arctic high in front of next week's system and turn into a beefy cold SWFE, then it feels like winter is still in full swing....two somewhat different paths that we aren't sure on yet.

He cried when I showed him the euro bust.

Dr. No says no again.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

Never heard of that. We had a low of 54 and ended with .17" of rain. Nothing left but dirty piles of snow in parking lots.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

9 hours ago you were showing your baby the Euro, like a proud papa. What happened.

Just in case, skis 25" knees 26" shoulders 27" not visible 28" + ???

Ya, It’s certainly not over. There will be more opportunities for winter weather.

Was just out having a smoke and there is some graupel coming out the clouds! 38F

Got 5.25” overnight and it’s been hammering upslope snow lately. Mountain visibility is under 1/4sm in heavy snow. Flake size much bigger than last night’s 10:1 synoptic dump. Even down in the valley is solid 1/2sm moderate snow. Upslope flow is parked for now. KMVL 111954Z AUTO 35007KT 1/2SM SN VV009 M04/M07

East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall. I well understand that fact. Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March. March of 1960 produced 26 inches. March of 1962 dumped 38 inches. March of 1993 produced 19 inches.

Telling Will which model to use

It is funny how and CTP is bad with wind lately. Forecast is for 24 mph winds while it’s gusting 38 mph.

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been. I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean. But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things! When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does. Now... I do something else. Invest my time more wisely. However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting. Look at this PD threat. It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on. Thats valuable. We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at. The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance. We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways. The details weren't known until later. So it depends what your expectations are. IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that. But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.

Think he meant Charlottetown.

Today, just bringing over the 2025-26 snowfall contest entries from the previous contest year thread. ____ Table of Snowfall forecasts for winter 2025-26 ____ FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV wxallannj _______________________23.0 _28.0 _ 28.0 __45.0 _44.0 _89.0 ___44.0 _18.0 _ 99.0 Tom ____________________________ 19.5 _ 31.1 _ 44.5 __ 40.1 _42.4 _102.4 __ 54.8 _ 6.1 _ 81.4 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 18.0 _ 22.0 _ 31.0 __ 32.0 _42.0 _93.0 ___52.0 _ 4.0 _ 88.0 wxdude64 _____________________ 15.6 _ 28.6 _ 41.1 ___30.3 _45.5_ 101.5 ___ 66.2 _ 4.7 _ 93.3 BKViking _______________________ 15.0 _ 32.0 _ 41.0 __40.0 _22.0_ 96.0 ___ 58.0 _13.0 _ 80.0 Rjay ____________________________ 15.0 _ 21.0 _ 44.0 __50.0 _33.0_ 100.0 ___65.0 _ 6.0 _ 90.0 ___ Consensus _________________ 15.0 _ 22.5 _ 39.5 __40.1 _42.2 _ 94.5 ___ 55.2 _ 6.1 _ 87.5 Scotty Lightning _______________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _ 25.0 __ 30.0 _45.0 _85.0 ___ 50.0 _ 5.0 _ 95.0 so_whats_happening __________ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 39.0 __ 42.0 _40.0 _91.0 ___ 38.0 _ 4.0 _ 87.0 Roger Smith ____________________12.8 _ 25.6 _ 50.7 __ 57.3 _ 61.5 _115.7 ___ 70.0 _12.5 _ 88.8 DonSutherland1 ________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ 40.0 __ 37.5 _45.0 _ 92.0 ___ 40.0 _ 6.5 _ 80.0 RodneyS ________________________ 6.7 _ 18.9 _ 35.7 __ 44.4 _49.1 _ 99.9 ___ 55.6 _ 9.1 _ 70.4 Mercurial ________________________1.0 _ 10.0 _ 20.0 __ 30.0 _ 30.0 _70.0 ___ 65.0 _ 6.0 _ 60.0 ___ snowfall to date (Dec 31) ____8.6 _21.2 __41.1 ___ 32.1 __36.3 _77.6 ___13.4 _ 0.0 _ 62.0 % of consensus to date ________ 57 __ 94 ___104 ____ 80 __ 86 ___ 82 _____ 24 __ 0 ___ 71 Forecasts surpassed ____________ 2 ___ 5 ___ 8 ______ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _______ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ===================== Consensus for snowfall is the median of 12 forecasts

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0

Looks like KLEB is having a sensor issue: https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLEB.html

Some drone footage too: https://imgur.com/a/DdlU4u6

imagine a grown ass man getting butthurt over faceless screennames on a weather messaging board calling him mean names.

lol the only member that is over 1" and it is a 2' bomb