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Meanwhile the gfs and euro are worlds apart on rainfall this week

So are we raining late week or are we not? The 12z GFS and Euro now both show most of the rain threat fading for Thursday while they try to get some coastal enhancement going on Friday.

What a day

This is what I mean by record warmth in November: 2020-11-06 71 46 58.5 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 75 47 61.0 10.9 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 76 46 61.0 11.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 47 61.0 11.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 76 48 62.0 12.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 71 61 66.0 17.2 0 1 1.48 0.0 0 2022-11-01 74 58 66.0 13.8 0 1 0.13 0.0 0 2022-11-02 71 51 61.0 9.1 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 72 45 58.5 7.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 73 47 60.0 8.8 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 78 56 67.0 16.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 77 67 72.0 21.5 0 7 T 0.0 0 2022-11-07 79 56 67.5 17.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 70 43 56.5 7.4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 72 57 64.5 15.7 0 0 0.44 0.0 0 2022-11-12 71 60 65.5 17.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 2024-11-01 81 57 69.0 16.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 2024-11-05 76 50 63.0 12.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-06 80 61 70.5 20.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-07 78 58 68.0 17.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-08 72 49 60.5 10.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-11 74 54 64.0 15.2 1 0 0.15 0.0 0

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1950) NYC: 83 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 74 (1974) Lows: EWR: 29 (1976) NYC: 30 (1887) LGA: 29 (1965) JFK: 31 (1965) Historical: 1743: Benjamin Franklin's "eclipse hurricane" unlocked the key to storm movement. A rainstorm prevented Ben Franklin from viewing a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, but his brother in Boston saw it, though the rain began an hour later. 1810: An early season winter storm produced 7 inches of snow in New York City. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1861: The Federal Expedition, the largest fleet of American warships assembled up to that time, sailed from MD to attack Confederate installations in SC. Upon rounding the North Carolina Capes it ran into a hurricane that sank two of the ships. The fleet otherwise survived and five days later captured Port Royal Sound, SC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1929: Boston, Massachusetts had a high minimum temperature of 63 °F the warmest low temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1946: A tornado hit Washington in Hempstead County in Arkansas, killing one. 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1950: High pressure off the East Coast brought another day of record warmth from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England. November all-time state heat records established today: NC (90 degrees in Greenville and Oxford; NY (87 in Elmira); NH (84 in Windham); RI (82 in Greenville; and VT (81 in Bellows Falls). Many locations recorded record highs for the month of November including: Boston, MA: 83°, Hartford, CT: 83°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 83°-Tied, Providence, RI: 81°, Wilmington, DE: 81°, Atlantic City, NJ: 81°, Philadelphia, PA: 81°, Allentown, PA: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79° and others. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Boston, Massachusetts had a high temperature of 83 °F the warmest temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1951: A large ridge of Canadian high pressure pushed a cold front into the southeast states southwest into northern Mexico bringing an early taste of winter. More than 50 record lows were set in the North, Central and southern Mid-West States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: A large ridge of high pressure brought record autumn heat from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Locations recording their all-time record high for November included: Augusta, GA: 90°, Columbia, SC: 90° and Atlanta, GA: 84°. Other record highs for the date included: Tampa, FL: 88°, Macon, GA: 88°, Savannah, GA: 88°, Charleston, SC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 85°, Little Rock, AR: 83°, Louisville, KY: 81°, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, St. Louis, MO: 80°, Springfield, IL: 80°, Chicago, IL: 77°, Columbus, OH: 77° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1971: The maximum today was 85° in Washington, DC warmest ever so late in season. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Also on this date Richmond, Virginia had its latest minimum of 70 °F or higher (latest warm night in the year) with a minimum temperature of only 70 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) A ridge along the east coast with upper level high pressure off the Florida coast brought record heat from parts of southern New England to the south. Locations recording their highest November temperature included: Mobile, AL: 87°-Tied and Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°-Tied. Other locations reporting record highs for the date included: Washington, DC: 85°, Tupelo, MS: 85°, Richmond, VA: 84°-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 82°, Roanoke, VA: 82°, -Tied, Asheville, NC: 80°, Bristol, TN: 80°-Tied, Greensboro, NC: 80°-Tied, Cape Hatteras, NC: 78°-Tied, Syracuse, NY: 76°, and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 73° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: Southeast Kansas--Lightning struck and killed a man in a duck blind near Lowell about 10 a.m. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1976: A lady is shocked while talking on the phone when a lightning strike hits a telephone pole nearby. The strange thing is that it occurred during a snowstorm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Strong low pressure of 988 millibars or 29.18 inches mercury north of Lake Superior combined with high pressure over southern Canada brought record winter-like cold from parts of the Rockies into the Plains. Kimball, NE matched their record earliest below zero with -2°. Other daily record lows included: Alamosa, CO: -21°, Great Falls, MT: -16°, Casper, WY: -14°, Helena, MT: -13°, Lander, WY: -12°, Pueblo, CO: -10°, Cheyenne, WY: -7°, Scottsbluff, NE: -4°, Billings, MT: -2°, Sheridan, WY: -2°-Tied, Valentine, NE: -2°, North Platte, NE: 1°, Missoula, MT: 0°, Grand Island, NE: 4°, Dodge City, KS: 4°, Norfolk, NE: 5°, Concordia, KS: 8°, Lincoln, NE: 9°, Omaha, NE: 9°, Amarillo, TX: 10°, Kansas City, MO: 12°, Topeka, KS: 14°-Tied, Wichita, KS: 14°-Tied, Oklahoma City, OK: 19°, Lubbock, TX: 19°-Tied, Abilene, TX: 25°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 28° and Houston, TX: 34°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Another infamous November Great Lakes Storm brought windy conditions to Minnesota's Lake Superior shoreline. 70 mph winds caused waves to crash over 130-foot walls along the shore. 2000: Hilo, Hawaii on November 1st and 2nd : Heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half (windward side) of the "Big Island" of Hawaii drop 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in a 24-hour period, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record. The previous record was 22.30 inches set on February 19-20, 1979. (Ref. WxDoctor) 37 inches of rain fell at Kapapala Ranch on the big island of Hawaii. 22.25 inches of it occurred in just 6 hours. This just missed breaking the all-time 24-hour rainfall record for the state of 38 inches at Kilauea Sugar Plantation on Kauai in January 1956. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

I went to Alaska this year. Absolutely incredible.

The 30 hPa QBO per ATMO Hub dropped from +17.6 in Sept to +14.0 in Oct. But I advise weenies to not take that small drop and interpret that to mean that a -QBO is going to arrive by Feb (though I expect some x weenies to do just that….be prepared ). All it is doing is oscillating within the solidly positive region (the image below shows this well). Related to that, 20 hPa and 15 hPa are still maintaining their strong status with +17.5 to +17.6. Also, the level that Paul Roundy referred to a few days ago, 70 hPa, as expected rose sharply from +2.6 to +7.0. The last 29 +cycles at 30 hPa have lasted 10 months++ and have averaged ~12 months going back to 1960. The current one started in May. Feb would be the 10th month and April the 12th month. Thus, I maintain my prediction that there will be a +QBO at 30 hPa through at least Feb with Feb likely lower than the current +14 but likely still at +5+ and possibly as high as ~+10. My best guess as to when it goes to a -QBO is around May. This image better illustrates the current QBO status at all levels. As one can clearly see, we’re in the heart of a solid +QBO at 30 hPa that won’t end til at the very least til 3 months after we see it first dropping to <0 at 10 hPa. The avg lag of going to -QBO from the 10 hPa level to the 30 hPa level is actually 7 months: @snowman19

Yes! The end of an era

69 / 38 another gorgeous day for fall. Looking liek dry streak ends with the >1.00 inch of rain Thu-Fri. Untill then 70s in the warm spots Mon - Wed.

Its not. Its actually a board of good discussion mixed with some cc extremist agenda trolls who frequently make outrageous statements that month after month year after year are proven wrong.

RIP the NAM and SREF. I will miss NAMs predictions of 40 inches of snow during the winter and 10 feet of rain during the summer. Thanks for the memories.

SPC has marginal risk with 2% tornado for Midsouth for tomorrow 5% winds and also a general thunder risk out for day three Eh it’s something also will help out with rain too .

I haven't seen a single person denying climate change. Definitely seen a couple people denying logic and facts, though.

Yuck. I’ll miss the 3k

And don't forget about Nola, lol This is one of the places where weather is so counterintuitive to layman like me who just follow it as a hobby. Like with cc being what it is, you would think those places could not see snow like that. But there are other complicated mechanisms at play that make those things possible even while things are supposed to be getting warmer, lol

The strat split stuff interests me a little bit at this time of year. As Jeff noted, Eurasia is the primary first stop for that cold dump. However, I think maybe it was 14-15 where an early strat split set the stage for a cold second half of winter. We will see. I tend to be in the camp that believes that warm falls tend to flip cold very quickly during the latter half of November. I may have to change my Dec forecast. We will see.

I can see that easily, but from an average standpoint. Ive already noticed a slight reduction in avg snowfall here on the bookends of the season BUT also an increase during the heart of the season. What it means is the avg season snowfall isnt going down and theres more fun in the heart of winter. Despite the reduction in bookends we still see yearly April snow and occasional October & May snow. If Florida and the Gulf Coast can see record snowstorms 2 years in a row, it can snow in NYC in March.

Some growing potential for a strong slp or cut-off just after mid-month. Both the 12z Euro and GFS have it. I doubt it is snow for the lower elevations, but I generally track anything that remotely looks like that. Right now, winter is in the West. Mammoth got 9-14" of snow at the Main Lodge this past weekend. They should meet their normal ski slope opener date (just a few days away). LR ext modeling does hint that winter begins right after Thanksgiving in the East - huge grains of salt(and I mean huge).

I feel like this will be the story of the winter. Even though it's the CFS at hour 480 and even though it's still in November I'm worried we're gonna see a lot of those at D8-10 with a little hope only to get rug pulled at D5-6

Yea, they're gonna get crushed with the juiced stj and pac firehose. What's the verdict on LES during el ninos? I would imagine it would be down without bouts of nw flow?

Guess I really shouldn't be complaining given recent history but I will anyway...it's pretty depressing out there today. Gray and 62F here.

For me to conjure pre winter, I need dark and dank. It’s anything but today!

say it ain't so! I read in another forum that today is the final runs of the NAM.

denier board

Can't win in any state no more. I give up, lol Get the Storms tracks in nino, warm, and this niño is now TOO strong. I mean I would say we need a moderate, but that didn't work either (although...I can't remember getting a noreaster in 23-24. What happened that year with the precip?) Enough cold air in ninas, can't get the storm tracks and watch Jersey north cash in on blizzards. Nina coming next year or year after. This is where we are, smh Hope we luck into one