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Yeah 12z Nam is back to that convection lagging in the South that some of the models were showing yesterday

Gfs might be coming west

Gfs might be coming west here

My NWS forecast did indicate the two separate periods of precipitation, so we'll see.

Seems to me this winter (and I know we're only half-way through) may go down as a textbook example of all the things that generally go wrong in a Nina/weakening Nina setup. The December Chinook, the historic cold in Alaska, misplaced Atlantic blocking, the stubborn Great Lakes lows, so many things have contributed to split flow and lack of phasing. You can sort of see the past 30/40 days how one issue has played into the next, even through the pattern resets. We have modest cold air supply rest of the month. Just have to hope the river and flop work in our favor regarding precip and timing. As for the weekend threat, I can't recall such a huge whiff on American models, notorious as they may be, within 24-48 hours. I try to not let recency bias get the best of me, but I lack relative remembrance. Truly, the absence of overhead blocking played a huge role in the weekend threat evaporating and will be a legacy to the archive. We've seen this storyline before many times, so it confuses me why so many neglected the writing on the wall. Kinda feel for our Piedmont brothers. They spew a lot of crazy stuff over on Southern but they're long overdue. Rooting for you, @GaWx! Not to sound to straight-forward but send pics if things out for you.

I can help with that if you need it

Low of 22. Always appreciate your tidal/ice obs. Hope to see more ice back sometime soon.

I just can’t stand cold and bare ground. Just have it last until hopefully later next week when perhaps another threat looms.

This new Frederick-Westminster mini maxima feels right to me. As a longtime member of MD's snow anus here in the northern Balmer Burbs, fretting about missing a snow to the SE only to - PSYCHE! - miss it to the NW just feels right. At a certain point, when pain is all you know, pain becomes the only way you can feel anything at all. The pain is a gift. Sometimes I come on here during one of the many storms that have missed us over the last decade while burying someone else close by in the region just to look at everyone's happy snow pics and let the pain reassure me that I haven't gone completely numb.

Always does after 240hrs whether it be La Nina or El Nino. I would not look past 240 in any regard not sure what is going this year with models having such wild swings but they are not even in lock step with each other past 96 hrs.

Especially with the Arctic hounds coming. A lasting pack into February would do this forum some good.

I haven’t been paying much attention to the long range. Anything of interest?

So my climate pair....one of these things is not warming like the other....wonder why?

I applaud you for taking the advice and using a single source for both. I still don't like the SSTA-Global map but that is of my own. Do you happen to have the site to see the depth of the warmth within this region or is that just a twitter thing? I do find this year interesting even though we are in the Nina like atmospheric pattern/ base state it is not typical for us to see systems (in this particular pattern) going up the coast with little affect from a SER feature especially since we are entering mid to late January. This would and should be a time period where we see systems running right into the lakes almost similar to the a few days ago but over the next week and change we look to have this Nino like pattern evolve something is just off about this year so far. The -PDO is 100% responsible still for the lack of precip in the east and SE how long that lasts will another interesting thing to watch over the next couple months. I personally would have thought by now we would at least be touching near average monthly precip totals.

2015... We'd only got an inch in January before the February onslaught of which didn't start until the 13th. Totalled about 33" that Month at my place in Jonesville then. Northern Section of Lee County Totalled over 40" . Higher Eles 50" for the Month !

Always a shot out to @stormtrackerfor running this shit show. @psuhoffmanfor his insight. I been a part of this community since the old eastern days so been posting with a lot of you for over 20 years it’s kinda like a small family. Wish we still had conferences or at least can plan a get together with a part of the group that would be interested.

Yeah if its raining outside here, I can live vicariously through the Pats game.

Berkshire East has $39 tickets available on certain dates if you are willing to take a gamble and order them ahead

Looks like the whole thing is about to go neggy

The RGEM also nailed that snow/sleet fiasco 3 weeks ago. It’s the best of the short range models IMO.

yeah definitely some white rain here at the start. Honestly though I’d prefer 3” of paste vs 6” of fluff.

And now the 12z runs(esp. short term models) have bumped up the snow for tomorrow morning. Maybe 2-3” for us inland folks.

that's probably why, yeah. the gfs' synoptic forcing overcomes the convection, and since the nam's deep layer kinematics are weak...the convection takes over. why not

Been a long time since that model scored a coup