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2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Data reporting issue that didn’t get removed yet. But they did get close to the all-time February low set in 2015. The cold records in the Southeast were the most noteworthy this winter. On May 24, 2026, weather monitoring stations in Youngstown, Ohio, experienced a data reporting issue where a spurious (erroneous) low temperature spike was briefly logged. Actual weather records show that May 24, 2026, was actually a mild spring day, with temperatures hovering around a normal low of 54°F and reaching a pleasant high of 66°F. [1] Time Series Summary for Youngstown Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 -16 0 - 1934 -16 0 2 1979 -14 0 3 2026 -13 0 4 1963 -11 0 - 1961 -11 0 - 1951 -11 0 5 1973 -10 0 -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Yardstickgozinya replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I'm really not a tree guy, but i've seen a lot of different things in my landscaping. For my unprofessional viewpoint, the likely culprit looks to be annosus . Annosus Root Rot Courtesy USDA Forest Service, Bugwood.org Hosts Annosus root and butt rot is a commercially important disease of conifers. All southern pines are susceptible, but loblolly and slash pine are most severely affected. Identification Conks are often present in the litter at the base of dead or dying trees or tree stumps, or under root masses of windthrown trees. Conks, when fresh, are tan to brownish on the upper surface and white with tiny pores on the lower surface. They are rubbery and tough to tear. In the southern United States, conks are most common from December through March. Damage Damage from annosus root and butt rot may be scattered throughout a stand or in pockets of dead and dying pine trees called “infection centers.” Mortality is sometimes preceded by thinning and yellowing of the crown; however, some trees simply turn red and die. Trees in various stages of dying or death may suffer windthrow. Infected roots exhibit resin or pitch-soaking, and stringy root decay. Biology Annosus root and butt rot probably enters the stand when fungal spores land on fresh cut stump surfaces. The fungus grows through the remaining root system into nearby live trees via root grafts or contacts. Mortality usually begins 2 to 3 years after thinning and often ceases 5 to 7 years later. Damage increases with the sand content of the soil. Twelve inches (30 mm) or more of sand or sandy loam above a clay subsoil in a soil with good internal drainage is considered a high hazard site for tree mortality. Control Prevention and control strategies for annosus root rot include stump treatment, timing of thinnings, prescribed burns, and the manipulation of planting density -
Think we will probably do the same. don't want to pay for parking, or for state park admission.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get: In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop…. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I never said it’s done warming. My post only dealt with what has happened from when this event started up to now, not what is going to happen in the future with region 4. It may very well start warming again in the fall. @LakePaste25 I agree with you about the peak. I think this event more than likely peaks in December, not November like the EURO is showing -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
TheClimateChanger replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, there is still a 30C isotherm west of Nino 4. So it could spike again sometime between now and in the Fall before we actually start to see some real replacement upwelling in the W pac. This Nino has ways to go before it peaks. I also think some models that show 3.4 peaking in November are peaking it too early. -
Temp of 69 with rain. More widespread rain this afternoon and evening.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
TheClimateChanger replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No, July 2012 came in 0.04F cooler than July 1936, per NCEI. Close but no cigar. For the whole summer (JJA), 2021 is tied with 1936 for the record at 73.98F. -
Ended up with 1.57" from today's rain. Looks like a good chance for more tonight.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
TheClimateChanger replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month. -
Pittsburgh PA Summer 2026 Thread
TheClimateChanger replied to TheClimateChanger's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Wow, wouldn't have thought it had been that long since a July high below 75F. The coolest Julys of the past would see the entire month's average not much higher than 75F (e.g., 1976 - 76.7F). -
Is there a way to fix a data error in the official climate records? I noticed from Brian Brettschneider's map, it was showing a monthly record low at Youngstown - which struck me as odd. I took a look and the low for May 24th is showing up as 18F, which is obviously incorrect. Not sure how that ended up there... it doesn't look like NWS CLE generated/published an RER for that date.
