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As of 121am Texas time July 21, Bertha is disorganized. Most of the precip is south of the center of circulation. This puppy needs to be monitored. With any luck she will reach hurricane status and continue lumbering slowly westward toward Texas where I hope she will move in and take up a happy productive residence swirling around for a week about 40-50 miles southwest of Buda. We are parched and need more rain. I'd love it if Bertha would please spin me up some highly efficient tropical rainbands then train them right over the Austin/Buda Corridor for days on end. I'd love to see the Plum Creek rise right over Rt 1626 and 967. I'd walk down there with my old snow ruler and take water level readings, while blasting the latest Gen Z tracks on my headphones! Another thing I crave for is to get so much heavy efficient tropical rain, that all the water storage facilities scattered all over Buda and Kyle would get filled right to the brim, even overflowing and running down the streets! I'd definitely enjoy a truly EPIC jebwalk!

Looking at another MCS rolling in during the next few hours, ugh!!! Every single storm is between 11pm and 8am (nearly all from 12am-3am) this year, just why? I haven't hit the pillow yet and soon my block will be off it again.

I'm not sure there will be much left to track after about 60-72 hr as the entire circulation gets sheared apart. HAFS-A/B do have any coherent sfc center by 72 hr. You can see the deformation pulling it apart well at 850, 700, and 500 on the ECMWF RH/streamline fields. NHC showing a trackable center from their 03z advisory at 96 and 120 hr seems optimistic IMHO.

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42 0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37 1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37 0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42 1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37 0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40 1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38 0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

00z HRRR and esp. RRFS go big w/ the QPF Tue and Wed. Sern NY bulls-eye again! Tor risk wrn sections today and entire area in MRGL Wed. Quite the 500 trough for July to impact the region and it just doesn't quickly swing through. Train echo tstms likely. And hardly any talk here? Wxwiz, I am disappointed! CoastalWx probably "MEH!" And work more on this drought. You'd think its so bad from the MSM when VT has no drought, much of NH nothing, and the same for ME. Since the start of the year, the DSCI has dropped from 137 to 70 for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but do you ever hear about that? "Oh, but ern MA is in severe drought!" Local drought is not the same as widespread drought.

Now it shifted to tomorrow

I also didn't realize Edison renamed themselves Newark

Wow. You get the classic "discrete cells ahead of line" which you always have to watch closely for tor potential, then big clusters w/ training psbl and FF threat. And now much of the DMV could do well on Wed as the front gets hung up w/ more training and FF threat. The 00z HRRR is really big for QPF. 48 hr totals 5" max just NW of DC and a whopping nearly 12" max near WAL! Well, we do need the rain. 00z RRFS is very similar to the HRRR for big QPF w/ the 5" max just S of DC and an 11" max near WAL. Winds aloft look better than the last event for svr wx. I esp. like the 250 mb speed max approaching late in the afternoon, so discrete supercells should sustain better. Tor threat is there but not high-end.

Which is obviously wrong. It continues to appear that there will be a smaller round for late morning and midday, and then the potential major round for early evening. We could get hit hard around 5 to 7pm, but we'll have to see if there's enough sunshine during the afternoon break to really fire up the atmosphere and increase the risk of the early evening storms being severe.

Another 4-5" rain event just north of Des Moines today. That area has been hammered this summer. Somewhere in that area has probably had 20+ inches of rain in the past two months.

Solid hit today. 1.56". Could have had more except for some untimely swerves. 3.77" MTD.

Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026 The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern semicircle. There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to become the dominant steering influence which should induce a west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will increase during the next couple of days. This should limit intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch

He could be deep in the Allagash forests and still get the Trump signal here

I have no clue why they show these maps on TV. TV mets should be a little more responsible than Twitter "mets" and hypesters. Yet here we are.

I saw the conversation and knew wolfie wouldn’t be able to resist. Even in his summer hibernation

Looks very familiar. Just like the forecast and/or the result for every event the past 4 years

What's a good portable generator? Can it power multiple devices throughout house at once (fridge, lighting, HVAC, water heater)? If portable and only set up when needed, how can it be set up outdoors to power things inside? Asking not to be confrontational, I'm genuinely curious what the alternatives are. We've lost power 5x this year, ranging from 3-16 hour times. Most times not even weather related. My fear is having to struggle in pitch dark at 2am setting up a portable generator, and not able to ensure kids can sleep and we have refrigeration / hot water.

Same here in Sumner county seems like it reliably falls apart before reaching us. Didn't get a drop yesterday but goodlettsville got hammered.

Picked up another 0.62” to bring the daily total to 2.33”. This now brings the MTD to 8.90”. Looks like maybe another round later tonight too?

did you guys see this? legitimately insane: This is like Charlotte or Atlanta having a low of 80F in January lol. Seems like it's indirectly tied to the developing Niño - apparently related to some insane snowfall in the Andes (because of the juiced-up Pacific) leading to downsloping winds into Argentina, which caused this.

I've had 5 power outages last month, including one this evening. I truly hope there's not another one tomorrow.

I’m not certain that we will.

SPC issued MDTs on back to back days with Ivan. The first day over the southeast somewhat busted, as too much cloud cover limited instability. On the second day, we did eventually get a MDT into parts of northern VA, but the threat was not obvious until it evolved in real time. This was the initial outlook of the day. The area with a 5% got a SLGT. (The probabilities ramped up starting with the 1630Z outlook.)