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why do people post obs when the mesonet exists

16.3° here - looks like just inland up in Churchville it got down to 12°.

I’d love to see snowfall through this date with these types of departures in other years. Bet it isn’t 0

I've learned to tune this crap out. It's just noise. If anyone had a crystal ball and can tell us how we're going to end this winter or any winter for that matter, it'd be a very rich and famous person. Until then... We wait and see what happens

More inland helped. Even the south shore of Nassau was colder. Rare for us to be warmer than NYC absent an early season cutter.

I said this earlier, ah, long range forecast, take it with the grain of salt, but every time they say we're supposed to get this wicked cold.Air, it never really pans out.It gets cold, but not as cold as a fresh industry claim

Yes indeed, and I mentioned that exact thing last week. This past week or so has been a step back in time.

I get it. It’s a lot more difficult on the coast down there pre Christmas and like you said, these are the departures you need…although I’d argue Mooseville hitting -20s on 12/9 is probably more cold than we need…especially in the 2020s versus 1970s.

GFS has the end of week clipper but not super inspiring for most. Just good to see it on there, can get it to juice up later.

Yeah seeing Virginia get multiple snow events in early December doesn't help. It's one thing for that to happen in mid January but early December makes it worse. It's also pretty rare to get this type of cold for 10+ days and not get much or any snow to show for it even on the CP of SNE. We did get a stretch similar in early Dec 2018....though not quite this cold...and we got skunked while a huge storm hit VA. But fewer people were on edge in 2018....we were coming off an epic winter.

BTV: -12.4 MPV: -11.5 MVL: -12.4

The late week clippers have the weekend rule going for them. I completely disregarded that when downplaying their impacts. I’m much more bullish on this now.

Nailed it.

Not 2012...but 2016 wasn't anything great IMBY....obviously I would kill for it now, but about average to a shade under average snowfall with no noteworthy storms. The March 2017 event ended up tracking close enough that it brough mid level warmth, and wasn't anything special.

Maybe a warm up towards the holidays?

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Yesterday's daily mean temperature at MVL was -1F . -27 daily departure. -12.4 on the month.

This time of year, these departures are what you dream of to get snow, and we’re screwed again. It’s like the same movie over and over playing on repeat for years. So yeah, I am a little annoyed. And I’m not sold on anything good in the second half of this month with that look on some of the ensembles. It’s just getting to the point where I’m absolutely beyond frustrated. I hope to God this weekend works out.

Through 12/8/2025 monthly departures BOS: -7.7 PVD: -7.8 BDL: -8.8 ORH: -8.3

Very true, lol

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his.

KMPV has set 2 records in the past week and I think today will be #3. Last week's -8° and -10° yesterday before midnight. Looks like this morning's -15° is 1° short of the record set in 1989.

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region. We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us.

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this.

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.