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If he says something incorrect and continues to insist that he is correct, I will challenge it right here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's wrong. Either way, anybody reading can learn. If I had no respect for him, I would ignore it. People need to know what's true and what's not.

couple nooners showing NS energy diving down into trough on Friday, and might be something to watch in future runs.

Somewhat surprisingly, the models keep pushing the main band closer to MBY. Getting interesting now.

Pretty much.

GFS won't get it done for the 18th either. Long range looks cold and active though.

GFS pops a low and light wintry precip for Sunday into Monday. We get neutral tilt on the Alabama/Georgia line this run. Very very different look in a good way for 12z.

Gfs says no

GFS even more disjointed for the 16th. Brings moderate snow inland, some rain showers over here. What a turn of events. What a massive cave

I fully respect the synoptics and realize that they drive the surface, but IMO one of the big flags for this upcoming "fail" was the lack of snow on the ens means. Could be a blind squirrel finding a nut but even as we saw positive h5 shifts they stayed stubbornly uninterested. AIs never liked it either. Seeing the AI guidance and the snow means responding to this period adds to my interest.

Tries to turn but just doesn’t get there enough this run. Maybe can keep trending who knows. Throws little bit over the se this run.

Looks like the Sunday Monday threat will end up being a bigger deal..

Different look @ 153, she gone

Take this to DMs. If you want this information from Don, I am sure he will give it to you. Further, show the man some respect. He contributes alot to this board and for many years. Your attitude towards him is not called for. Seriously, nobody cares about your picking apart his statistical analysis. You may think it makes you look smart, but it makes you seem like an asshole. This is not a college course, its a weather board. Give it a rest.

Looks better than 6z, trough is further west and digging further south.

Major improvements on the gfs for system 2. Sheesh.

I feel this also and haven't been invested until a few days ago. Seems to be like pulling teeth to get anything synoptic anymore and even when we do there's always a downslope concern................but when I remember the Carolina peeps and their struggles, it makes me thankful for what we do get.

Sunday is still on the table for some kind of event. All the ensembles have something. It's workable.

One interesting upper air map.

GFS with a substantial shift west from 0z on the energy for the second system.

Holy christ enough

15 day warm up is not a thaw. A thaw is like 3-5 days. 15 days is half the month!

Exactly. Its early. I said the same thing and posted some graphics to illustrate. I guess the snow maps provide more support, but they will be constantly posted going forward now, and when they don't look so good...

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

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