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  2. I ended up with 1.79" from that cell. Sitting just outside of it now.
  3. Unlike the last few threats, near max instability today, especially West of Long Island. The limiting factor today will be wind shear. The primary severe threat will be strong wind gusts from downbursts. Expect slow moving storms that will dump and frequent lightning.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  5. The storms firing up near Lancaster would be the ones that come this way unless stuff gets going closer.... so 5-530 is probably a bit premature of a radar depiction!
  6. 89/79/105. Awful after that shower
  7. Montiviola about 10 miles southwest of Crozet reports 1.19" since noon. The east of the Blue Ridge daily monsoon continues while west of the B.R. a very serious drought situation gets worse by the day.
  8. yup going to want to watch that dewpoint/MUCAPE gradient. I also have to say...things are evolving a good 3-4 hours earlier then I was anticipating. But this is where we stand with MUCAPE. Activity may come through early enough that the storms remain surfaced-based which could mean an increased risk for damaging wind gusts well into the region. But to go along with Scott's posts about the dewpoints, there is a significant drop off in MLCAPE values away from the coast as drier air mixes down. Have to see when/if they rebound
  9. Unless something changes, it looks pretty bleak south of the PA line.
  10. I'm an Eskimo that lives south of Mason-Dixon. I've accepted my fate.
  11. Same! Hail and close lightning strikes. And I’m not liking the look of the radar, the way it’s backfilling could train right over us. Urban flooding is pretty intense here right now. Aye.
  12. Torrential rainfall setting in now with these storms.
  13. Yes indeed. Skies briefly brightened but it just re intensified again.
  14. Radar depicting storms to be here btwn 5-5:30PM.
  15. My Brooklyn Cobble Hill area 8 miles SSW of Central Park is warmer. For that matter so is Halifax quite a bit to the north and east. As always ….
  16. I could see that developing just to my north and heading east
  17. 94 / 74 here storms in EPA/NW NJ
  18. As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10.
  19. Not sure why they took Waynesboro Eastern Augusta off the extreme drought... Current situation up near CHO airport.. intense rains again.... large bolt just slammed something near or the runway itself - bolt seemed to freeze in air....
  20. im guessing mid 70s
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