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And Nam too far SE

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck.

Latest HRRR is way off with that meso low.. curious to see what it does in future runs

Rain just started here…much later start than we were told and expected, but radar looks impressive now.

Im at Jiminy Peak, light rain now but looks better upstream, there is a creek flowing hard that looks like decent flood potential, will see at daybreak how its doing after the rain picks up.

I was just going to post this.. seems like the Berks might be under the gun later on

Yeah for the entire system Hudson valley ftw. Low looks a little east of earlier guidance.

The Hudson River going to flood NYC? The entire river valley is getting pummeled.

I'll be in chase mode later on

Alittle under 5” total.

How is it looking for us further east in E CT/RI

Ended up at .57" yesterday.

Interestingly, this was one of the snowiest winters on record for the Southern Appalachians.

Here's a closer look at the statistics of the Coatesville and Phoenixville post war moves. Differences between stations was removed by setting 1945 to zero to facilitate comparison between stations. Coatesville and Phoenixville behaved differently than the other stations, cooling relative to the other stations at the time of the moves; and, remaining cooler after the moves.. Using the temperature difference between 1945 and 1952 as a metric, Coatesville and Phoenixville are significantly different from 11 stations without station changes. The P value is 0.0001 which means that there is virtually no chance that Phoenixville and Coatesville are the same as the other 11 stations. Furthermore Phoenixville and Coatesville are significantly different from the other stations in every year after the moves in this period. Finally note also the good agreement among the 11 stations without changes. Chester County shares the same weather with a much larger region. Many stations can provide useful information on the Chester County COOP stations; which makes the identification of Chester County station changes very robust.

I did not want to bring up the "feels like" temp, as that is out of control as to abuse, but it can be of use b/c "the door swings both ways!" Once you get below 57 or 58 dew point, the heat index is actually lower than the air temp! I would bet not many mets know or actively realize this. I did not know until about 10 years ago! I've spoken to ppl deployed in the Middle East, they can get perspective! After in that sauna for a few months, coming home, 95 feels great! Acclimation I think is underrated. When I moved to DC, it took me a few summers to get used to the more 90 temps and the more persistent high dew point, which get into the upper 70s more common here. By my 3rd summer, I not longer noticed it. I adapted. However, the flip side is that I am not as tolerant to cold. This past winter was by far the coldest here since I moved here, and I noticed! I think from the general public POV, they think MT is "cold." Most have zero idea what continental climate is like, and MT is the best state for temp swings in the CONUS. It is the only state in the Lower 48 that has had sig snow at lower elevations (I am taking Great Falls proper) in August (happened in 1992). It's even worse for AK. Ppl are shocked to learn AK highest temps is 100 F, and that they get a lot tstms (all squeezed into J-J-A). Some locations get 30 days w/ thunder, more than a lot of New England! And of course, tornadoes. We had that one earlier this month, but I would bet good $$ there are 3-5 tornado in AK each year, just it is so large and sparsely populated, it precludes detection.

Getting destroyed out here. Firehose off the ocean. Up to 1.67”. As usual those calling bust 2 hours into an event look foolish

EF0 passes close to ineedsnow house will make it EPIC!

I wasn't alive then, doesn't count

Someone is going to get obliterated today.. the hype looks warranted this time..

W/ that sat imagery I bet it was stronger than 125 kt. Pinhole eyes often suggest higher, but Dvorak has nothing to account for eye diameters or tight systems, esp. when the inner core is tiny. We generally underestimate the most intense TCs and small TCs from satellite estimate.

More ern NY currently!

Here it comes for SWCT. Just as we suspected.

This thing hangs out over water long enough NHC will give it a name.

04z HRRR rides a 996 mb low into cntrl CT (makes "landfall") later this morning. This is how the BDL F4 occurred on 10/3/1979. Sfc low from S of LI came up from the S and moving right over cntrl CT. Did WxWiz even get a hint of this before going to bed? I know CoastalWx did not, and now be like, "HUH????, where did this come from?! I was focused on all the rain!" Sooo...has anyone looked at the svr wx parameters? They are sneaky impressive. From 04z HRRR: 1) CAPE values NE of the sfc (meso?) low. 500-1000. That's more than enough when low-level shear is solid (see below). 2) 0-3 km CAPE - areas of 200+ CT/RI border to srn NH - again, more than enough (75 or more is good). 3) Now this is where it gets interesting. 0-1 km SRH NE of sfc low, large area of 200 w/ a max of 447 at 17z over NW RI! That is crazy and no reason this is spurious given the set up and evolution here. 4) SCP and SIGTOR area are there. Not honkin' but that's due to low CAPE largely. Low CAPE/high shear can do some amazing things! 4) Sim radar shows discrete cells in an arcing line NE of the sfc low. NE of sfc lows (synoptic, meso, or tropical) are prime areas for spinners. You have low CAPE in the column, but its more than enough for stout convective updrafts, 0-3 km CAPE is high so there is your low-level vortex stretching, and 0-1 km SRH is excellent. SPC 06z outlook has gen tstms only for the NE. I don't know about that. And yes, the small low pressure is already there off the NJ coast (radar attached).