All Activity

Our next storm to track.....WB 12Z GFS Day 11

Yep. I made a post in the other thread about the teleconnections going forward earlier today. Only the -PNA is unfavorable. The NH panel shows it better.. the -WPO is key on the Pac side.

Since it's mid-Feb, -PNA is fine! That should also lessen our worries about suppression!

Keep clicking your heals Dorothy.

I posted a response in the main medium range thread, but even though this is an ops out there in time...this kind of threat has shown up in ops runs (not just the GFS) and even ensembles(?) in that time period, several times lately. So I don't think it's just fantasy land bullshit. Not saying for sure we'll get something, but it catches one's attention.

Me too.

See Ji's post in the CAPE thread. It's a decent read

Hello again my friend: I suggest that the NWS idea of limited CAD was "wrong' : This would create support for the AI solution. The EURO AI deterministic is fine. But the EURO AIFS ensemble is not ready for Primetime. Maybe next winter, but not this year.

I know we can all laugh at an ops model at range...but a pretty good event has shown up in the ops (not just the GFS) several times now in that time frame. Not guaranteed obviously, but I don't think it's just fantasy either.

there is a lot here lol. NAO/big 50-50/-PNA/-WPO....alot of things fighting each other but the SE ridge is flat. Id be more worried about a southern slider here than the usual Feb nina cutter

Other than me, he is keeping this thread alive lol.

Potential is still there. I guess most aren't paying attention to potential down the road and are clinging to a Presidents day storm that may yield few sloppy inches mostly for NW areas, which is fine given the alternative- rain or nothing at all lol.

Somewhat cooler weather has returned to the region. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s tomorrow. The weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week. Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

-pna

Your bus is totaled, You need a new bus and there on BO until 2027.

That’s the time period the euro ai has been liking

@CAPE will be disappointed in you

A not winter over high of 27 today. 3" still left in the pack.

this thread died lol...i guess people like banter more than technical. Anyway....EPS looks decent for a winter event in late February and GFS has a stalled MECS/HECS lol

Hello there GFS

GFS brushes us southern folks

52 here today. Several days of 60s coming up shortly.

What a far cry from the 25th-26th alerts map. Zzzzzz……

this is actually a legit event to use an umbrella in the snow

@EastCoast NPZ is going to get pummeled.