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gas up the snowblowers folks

Meh by early-mid swamptober, we’ll be back to our usual deluges thanks to screaming nor’easters and stalled out lows by the Great Lakes. Embrace the relative calm before bratty kids and their bewildered parents are nearly blown away by another pre Halloween torch cyclone!

I know ‘26 became the most E based of any Nino on record in early Sep as I posted here 2 days ago: Although 1+2 has warmed in Sep, it like RONI has also fallen in OND fwiw though by not as much (0.3 vs 0.5) making it slightly more E based in OND than it had before: Aug 9-18: 1+2 OND +4.2 Aug 19-28: 1+2 OND +4.0 Aug 29-Sep 7: 1+2 OND +3.9

Thanks to requests I have one more add to the chescowx.com website. It now includes a current weather tab with current conditions at East Nantmeal along with the current 10-day East Nantmeal ChescoWx forecast system and a forecast verification scoring comparison to the current National Weather Service forecast. Along with a breakdown of models used by % for the ChescoWx forecast. Of note ChescoWx has been scored better on 13 of the first 14 days of review to date. https://chescowx.com/current-weather/

Thanks to requests I have one more add to the chescowx.com website. It now includes a current weather tab with current conditions at East Nantmeal along with the current 10-day East Nantmeal ChescoWx forecast system and a forecast verification scoring comparison to the current National Weather Service forecast. Along with a breakdown of models used by % for the ChescoWx forecast. Of note ChescoWx has been scored better on 13 of the first 14 days of review to date. https://chescowx.com/current-weather/

Latest in the season overnight low of < 60 F for central park? No < 60 F overnight lows forecast for the next 10 days at least which has to be a record? Dews too high these days.

Smoothed anomalies, I expect like 60%

I'm ok with that... Overall a great early fall Goldilocks pattern; not too warm; not too cold, not too wet and not too dry... Certainly not extreme... A little boring for sure but with the likelihood of an active East Coast winter, I'm ok with boring right now...

NFL pick em pool is up in the sports thread! Get your picks in

@donsutherland1 I was playing around with Astra to see how well it could do to create high-resolution maps of past temperature data. I'd say these weren't too bad. I tested it on this past July and the "hottest month ever" (registered trademark) of July 1936. This was using unadjusted data with bias correction.

I've been watering twice a day for the past 3 days, after overseeding on Monday morning. This dryness is killing my soul

Agree...

Blowtorch

What've you got for the individual months DJF?

That's a Vega that's not an all out rust bucket on the right. Amazing...

You are 100% right as it pertains to the seasonal mean, but I think the trick is to try and focus on when the pattern may stray from said mean. I think that is where the more skilled forecasters have a chance to distinguish themselves. Same thing as if it we have a fall of 2009 type regime....that was a an obvious snow-season for the mid atl leading in, but when are the thaws??

@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Check this site out....nice site for a quick and easy guide on pattern diagnostics. Nothing new to us, but it helps to illustrate when you feel like a pattern is good, bad or ugly.

Lawns still lush and green here-I think we'd need another week before anything needs water

Cool site...def. adding this to my arsenal. Thanks.

No. They need to take their steroids in order to win games!

many people are calling this the easiest long range forecast of all time

warm and rainy

The Netflix movie God of the Woods is currently filming in Goshen at the old courthouse. Pretty cool to see how much goes into filming likely one scene, along with the cars and extras from the era of the movie, 1975.

I was never wishing for a lower RONI because given how warm the Pacific basin is, I think that could predispose the hemisphere to residual MC influence in the mid latitudes, as we are still seeing signs of those competing forces despite the magnitude of El Nino.