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off topic "banter" but well put. -19 at work this morning up in Grayling. I enjoy every facet of winter but the bottom of my list is extreme cold if it lasts more than one night, lol. As with extreme heat, the cumulative effects are real. My NMI native co-workers took a walk in those temps this morning. When I worked in Ft. Worth summer of 2010 it was 105 at lunch but them boys from India couldn't get out on the hot black parking lot quick enough for their walk-about. Some are ok with extremes, I am not one of them. Can't even imagine wintering in Alaska

Yeah something seems off with it

That’s all I mean. Not sure why it triggers some.

My south facing home has experienced significantly melting on dark surfaces.

62 and right there with you. We may pull for opposing teams, but we could be friends!!!

Tell that to the SNE forum. They are not too happy about the Euro trend since 18z yesterday.

FV3 looks like it will be dryer than last run too...

It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today.

Coastal already forming better at 30. Everything offshore is south with the stronger confluence in the NE

The problem is, it lags a cycle or so behind so it's using old data and still catching up. The 00z run should have lower totals around RIC based on trends.

I'll bet my bottom dollar that gets upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

I don't think so, except maybe 2/6/1978. Or maybe they just got lucky. I was a school kid. Friday they said we were gonna have a humdinger on Monday. Monday into Tuesday we did. I remember taking a portable radio to an indoor track meet on Saturday so I could get updates. This shit is a life-long affliction (fortunately). Like you joked above, it seems like every storm since has approached with unrelenting drama. Having umpteen models to look at contributes. Maybe it was easier when there was basically the LFM and not much else and it happened to be right that time.

I’ve had some melting of the snow on my roof. Icicles starting and some ice forming on my front steps where it has dripped a bit. I also watched yesterday morning, once the sun rose, as the dusting of snow on my daughter’s car disappeared in about an hour (sublimation). it’s happening, just slowly

Just ChatGPT’d the map and it basically downgraded everything the nbm shows for this area. Pretty interesting read. Asked it what ratios are used and why it shows so high compared to many models tha show 0-1”

I agree should result in a more negative tilt since its held back/west we will see!

Funny seeing the cliff diving for those not getting 10”. I’m 61 and followed winter weather since 1976. The only 10” storms I remember in the upstate were the PD 1 1979, March 1983, and January 1988. Point being, it’s a rare thing to get 10” of snow in the SE.

Temp was tanking and then the wind picked up a bit went from 16 to 20.

Those that are skilled in pattern recognition (I am not) plus the repeating winter pattern(s) are keying-in on the period from approximately February 10th and the two weeks after as a recurrence of the first half of December. Aka that nice CO Low that hammered IA, IL and some surrounding states followed by sustained BN temp regime. This season has seriously mimicked last winter in many ways and last season I had my biggest storms on 2/8 and again 2/12-13. The 2/15-16 sytem for which I was under a WATCH for one shift, ended-up sliding SE and nailing TOR. That box has already been checked this winter with last weekend's major. I would not snooze on this upcoming period, tho p'sure the bulk stay south of mby yet again.

Speculation, but could let the southern energy round the bottom of the trough and beat the cutoff. Would help pull the low in closer

I see you ruffled some feathers with this questions and triggered an individual who's seeking attention (won't name names...). But that person's issues aside, people like what they like and hate what they hate. It is what it is I will say, warm weather states have been the fastest growing part of the US for over 4 decades with no signs of slowing down (many southern cities/metro have already or soon will surpass a lot of cold northern cities/metros in population) so there's actually a lot more people than yo think in the real world that can also do without "deep winter." Just have to remind yourself, weather forums can be a bit of an echo chamber that isn't always reflective of the majority opinion.

Not hating these hi res trends for NE IL

Gotta be broken right?

ratios are messed up on the NBM. also fuck this storm, its the meteorological equivalent of herpes.

The block is even stronger in the NE so its essentially slowing the trough. This will be interesting to watch its definitely different at 500