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QBO should pop positive, right? Teleconnections are iffy right now. Storm track might be our only hope. Super Nino patterns are generally warm here with a random, highly localized big snow in somebody’s backyard. Might be the MJO is our best bet with warm water over 8-2-1. It might balance out the poor QBO alignment.

@dendrite Server/VM needs to be rebooted. It doesn't appear to be a network issue. Probably some service is hogging memory or cpu.

With mid to upper 90s on tap next week….winter with temps in the 50s all winter doesn’t seem so bad. LOL. As for the slow down…it‘s hot and this forum doesn’t do AN temps in the summer. LOL. I figured I would go w a winter thread since the current pattern is a snoozer. It will crank up soon enough!

NBM which does really well on temps is mid-90s with some 97 and 98s. I was skeptical its first year or two. A mid-range ensemble? Well the NBM has performed very well both winter and summer high demand weather. Guess it'll bust occasionally like anything, but I'm optimistic we can avoid widespread 100s. That said, somebody will get there. Also humidity will be atrocious. Also regardless of anything heat index 100-110 will be hazardous. We are not acclimated yet after the modest start to summer.

A shower or thundershower is possible tonight into early tomorrow. Afterward, tomorrow will be pleasantly warm with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 80s. Some showers are possible tomorrow night and then again Friday night or Saturday. A warming trend could commence on Sunday. The guidance increasingly suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June and start July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.28 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.424 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.4 (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

East based super Nino should be warm and stormy. Agree the secondary pattern probably will be a couple weeks of Arctic dump. Loss of baroclinicty at the hemispheric level allows the jet stream to weaken, buckle, and deliver cold. Primary pattern I'm looking for mild mainly due to no cold air to deliver (outside the very meridional patterns) from the Midwest or even south-central Canada. East based is less conducive for other cold patterns. Maybe we can get southwest flow all winter. If it's not going to snow, give me severe! Might be my last post for a while. Why is the board so slow?

Dendrite potting Paw Paws while the website collapses. Who can we speak to?

Someone should make a New England version. Although Will would win every time. https://stormguessr.com/

Not surprisingly the NAM models shifted south on the 18z run. Saturday is looking like very little rain.

Posted this in the old thread but its dead. Impressive straight-line wind damage the Tuesday night south of me. Apparently a tractor trailer was overturned as well.

The 12z Euro came in looking like the GFS, or even hotter, for the lower elevations. 100+ for Nash, Knox, and Chattanooga next Saturday on it. The AI is still more in the low to mid 90s camp.

18z NAM says it's raining at my house right now....news to me

It also looks great to me compared to earlier runs.

Time for a new server here. This is ridiculous.

Why is this drought just so damn persistent? What will it take to establish a rain pattern?

Minor shift on the NAM

Lot of the moisture on Saturday now looking mostly south for the majority of us according to the GFS and NAM. Upton still calling for mostly a washout. I wouldn’t complain about the models being right lol.

Don't recall ever seeing these types of high temps for a large area of NC from any model output in some time. The foothills in triple digits are rather remarkable and temps in central VA as well. If this was to hold, one might expect the all-time record high 81 F for Mt. Mitchell could be challenged on the GFS. Grandfather's all-time record high of 83 may be in reach. Of interest is some remarkable heat waves ----Historic Heat Waves in the Carolinas

Furniture factory. Thing probably torched up in minutes. May as well been a lumber yard or firework warehouse... 82F/DP 60F

18z 3k NAM looks great to me

A really interesting statistic for the entire USA which exactly mirrors the data I share here from the philly burbs of Chester County. This below analysis measures not the typical metric of 90+ days but unusual hot periods of at least 4 days on average across the entire country where the average temperature reaches a level based on historical records that would be expected to only occur once every 10 years. Look how much hotter the entire nation was back in 1930's and 1940's compared to today! No matter how much we hear about how hot it is today we have still not reached that peak heating from the 1930 through 1942 period which matches the hottest period here in Chester County PA.

A really interesting statistic for the entire USA which exactly mirrors the data I share here from the philly burbs of Chester County. This below analysis measures not the typical metric of 90+ days but unusual hot periods of at least 4 days on average across the entire country where the average temperature reaches a level based on historical records that would be expected to only occur once every 10 years. Look how much hotter the entire nation was back in 1930's and 1940's compared to today! No matter how much we hear about how hot it is today we have still not reached that peak heating from the 1930 through 1942 period which matches the hottest period here in Chester County PA.

Yeah, toss that. Definitely some low 90s for a few days though.