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The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons. But instead the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times. It matters.. the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am. The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here" ... GFS is better on Sunday ... The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off. Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain. Temps held to 70.

Never heard of that... Even if we did warm ENSO at all for next winter, it would make no sense to incorporate warm ENSO analogs for this summer and fall.

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

Nice! The rainy weekends did it in for him, said he wants a weekend every day to actually experience some nice weather.

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

May be that will be the -AMO in this new climate we are in....never know....

Great back-loaded winter in 2012-2013, but I'm sure that its an impossible feat in the new, warmer climate.

Short on info:

No, I agree with you. I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this...... isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

It is nice to have last years Westy back.

Solar by the numbers. The solar age is here. https://aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/the-coming-solar-era-in-numbers

8 more weeks until the average temps start falling back. July and August are the worst. Bees, snakes, mosquitoes, ticks, and spiders rule the next 2 months. Who said Summer is fun?

The storm formation and movement is an interesting scenario for this area. It's very similar to the summer monsoon pattern in Arizona. Storms from in the mountains north of Phoenix, and then slowly drift south towards the metro area. Often times out there, however, that drift is new storms forming on the outflow boundaries, but still...

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-130845- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 439 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong thunderstorms containing small hail and gusty winds will likely form across the Northern Mountains of the state this afternoon and drift slowly south across the Central Mountains, Middle Susquehanna Valley and Western Poconos late today and this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Several rounds of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will occur Friday night through Sunday and could result in an increasing threat for flash flooding of small streams, creeks and poor drainage areas. The greatest risk for flash flooding will likely be late Saturday and Sunday. The southern portion of the state and areas of complex terrain will be especially vulnerable given enhanced rapid runoff with heavy rainfall.

Congrats! Diet Cokes 4 Eva!

Maybe one of you northern readers will get lucky.

Congrats!

Well I'm calling it quits from the rat-race today. Time to enjoy some retirement/semi-retirement.

We had a little rain tonight. We probably got a quarter inch. However, Dallas is on their fourth night of torrential rain. Houston is lighting up, too. North Texas will be severely smashed by torrential rain overnight and all day Thursday with no mercy. There will be thousands of water rescues on the Trinity River. Houston is going to get severely flooded well into the day today. We do not flood here in Austin. All we have are droughts, and Lake of Fire HEAT. This is a La Nina year. Austin will be dry. Austin will be extremely hot. There will be little rain, unless you reside in Dallas, Houston or East Texas. This upcoming cool season will remail dry as hell. BUT FIRST we gotta get thru this weekend. Mark Saturday, June 14 on your calendars!! That's all I can say. This weekend is gonna be something else. Austin not getting substantial rain in this drought is the LEAST of our problems.