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I'm down visiting some of my wife's family in NJ this weekend. Took a ride out to visit her uncle in Long Valley. I think you were from that area? The trees are completely bare there and they have had snow twice and some decent cold according to her uncle. But today I am near EWR and it was like going back in time a full month+ or so with the trees and stuff flowering. Looks like EWR still hasn't gone below 32.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal. Not sure how much this really matters tho. MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

In the bigger picture, it's not really a big deal. It happens rarely. I think the other notable one was in August when a lot of models were warm in the long range and it ended up being cool.

Come on what? It's a perfect example that the models are doing poorly with warm forecasts and second, we're all wasting our time with these digital slot machines we call models! Lol

Yep but by then it’s too late. Too late Luther, Too late!

I'm personally not a big fan on long range MJO forecastability. I've seen a lot of times actually over the last 10 years where patterns drastically change when the MJO is projected to go into favorable phases for X.

Come on man.. there is like 1 instance of a ridge leading to a trough in the east coast over the last year, and it's already been posted like 3 times lol. The large scale features held: -epo, +pna. I don't know why it had a big ridge when the Pacific looked like that anyway, but you know long range models hit at about 0.80 correlation accuracy. Especially when 1,000 mile wide features have a strong signal. It's predictable. 2-4 week models are much less predictable, there is a pretty big fall off after 384hr in predictability.

No doubt.

It could look a lot worse. December being in play is a good start.

As evidence of my statement that longer range forecasts haven't done well this year, top pick is last night's EPS forecast for Black Friday 12z and bottom forecast us from 11/15 12z.

Modeling can barely pick up something 12-18 hrs ahead, but we think we have an idea of what 8-10 days out will bring…

^That's a massive +NAO, MJO. With heights over Alaska neutralizing, we are going to go really warm there. These are large scale features that have a big impact on the east coast. Look at how the ridging in Alaska is just about gone in that 360hr map. If we don't hold that, the cold pattern is going to fall.

GFS at hour 384 looks menacing. Start the countdown.

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Although sometimes because of this board I end up looking too far ahead.

Yesterday vs today This is also phase 8.

It’s really outrageous that some people already should consider taking a break for a few days before Winter even starts. The same posters were very optimistic 2 days ago… A few weather tweets that aren’t epic & suddenly a couple of folks are ready to cliff dive, Lol!

The 0z EPS rolls the cold forward pretty much as one would expect with a WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern evolution. One sees how the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest is the focus of the cold while warmth proves very persistent in the Southeast. 288 hours: 312 Hours: 336 Hours: 360 Hours: The usual caveats concerning skill apply that these timeframes. Moreover, how the stratospheric warming propagates will influence the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

18z Reggie yesterday was the first piece of guidance that brought rain to the Pike. Everything followed after that

.14". That sucked.

Ok..I guess I stand corrected. Didn’t realize DE was such a snowy place.

Appears that way. But I just casually looked yesterday. Maybe there were some north trends or things we look for winter like deformation areas etc.

.29 in the bucket at my station