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met on southwernwx is saying the euro and euro aifs are delayed...

North Georgia Winter Storm Watch: WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to 4 inches and ice accumulations greater than one quarter inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Georgia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travelSaturday and Sunday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. .

Thrasher, Notice who has been left out of all that!

Banking on something not even to CA coast much less formed and moving probably should not be in a forecast

I agree with Tip would be nice to have an overall synopsis of storm at top of thread.

GEFS vs EPS low locations. Obviously the amped/miller b solution is not good for us but synoptically they’re pretty similar wrt SLP locations for the high pressure. Looks like the high over the dakotas is a bit stronger on the GEFS which allows less room for the LP to ride up the apps. Im no pro but will be really interesting to see how this all plays out. I don’t think it takes much to change outcomes (either way) with this setup. I think we will get a much better handle when all the players are sampled (northern stream vort, high strength, Baja low) so looking forward to this evenings runs.

Yes but Thursday/Friday and Sunday (2/1) are far from consistent on guidance.

So are the euro products and ukmet both delayed today for the 12Z suite?

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

Ha! Sorry. Peeked at your profile. But that sort of makes it worse. Do better, cuz this is a sh*t show.

As I get older Jeff the more I love dad jokes and that one made my day! I needed it. Thanks man! .

I'll settle for the bullseye up here in DC, lol

@Eskimo Joe makes a great point about the CMC not being viable because it has the L running directly into and crushing the H

GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?

They needed time to launch more balloons I heard.

Yeah it’s prob wrong, esp when diverging from other guidance like that. Ukie loves semi-exotic solutions at random times in the medium range.

There is a way around the main LP causing a turnover to rain all the eay up the west side of Apps. An LP forming East or SE of us and intensifying. Not highly likely but a possibility.

So what you’re saying issssss there’s still a chance [emoji1696] .

Go figure when we await it for some confirmation on things it is late.

I don’t know what much else we are supposed to think when that is what is presented. If that is to be wholly disregarded when presented then that is part of models overall problems

That number brings back some serious childhood memories

Normaly backend snow is in a myth in this area but in this type of scenario I can see it ending as snow.

The warning shots are being fired we all know that...at first they were little pellets but now they are cannon balls. Be prepared for some gut wrenching runs coming up i think

Hi everyone! I've been lurking and enjoying following along with your insight for 15 years now. Crazy! Time flies for sure. Is it just me or did GEFS say

Tucker we are gonna need some of them nugs .