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Looks like a decent WAA event with this clipper diving in from the NNW. The initial banding looks good, especially N of me. Hope that reality puts me in the bullseye, too Have seen 6-8" from similar setups. But I'll be satisfied with half that. Beggars can't be choosers as they say.

CPC has done a great job this winter. They were spot on with the end of December, despite critics. BAMWx questioned CPC's outlook for 1st half of January, but it's been spot on. It was BAM's outlook that blew up.

If it didn’t happen in EMA, it didn’t happen.

Have to look really hard for the improvement. Very small. Almost lockstep to the prior run, impressive consistency

Some of you I like, some I like more than the ones I like. and like most people, the likelihood of me liking or not liking you depends on what you are like.

Historically this is a great spot to be in for local snowfall ~ 4 days out. There are multiple shots of snow this weekend including a potential coastal event modeled just offshore. Many many times in the past these would shift NW in the final days to deliver a solid hit. If we weren't so snake-bit over the past several years I think there would be more excitement.

I didn't predict that it would be either. I was just pointing out that, with the current anomaly, the second half could be completely normal and it would still be close. With that said, it's pretty much guaranteed to finish in the Top 20, with Top 10 quite likely. As the colder end, in the means, shouldn't be nearly as extreme as the current positive anomaly.

I really liked these thoughts from another forum. Basically we’ve seen the high end potential with plenty of lead time to go. This feels like we’ve backed into a really nice potential setup here if we can get it to ride more N/S, which Ops are more likely to show at this stage than Ens. We’re in that weird modeling liminal time frame now

Euro skynet got a little better. Prob solid advisory east of ORH. We wait on the OP run.

I think we want the Saturdays mini wave to go way west of us for us to actually get the big coastal on Sunday. Can't be both. So it looks like either one could hit us, saturday ceiling is probably 2-4 but if GFS is right we could talk a foot of snow for the city and more east!

But that’s cause they shifted north. Let the north trend continue lol. Gfs learned from last event and shifted north first… I wish

Lets go. I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting.

No, you're 100% correct to feel this way, because honestly Im on the same boat. GFS was the only one last time that had us getting a snowstorm tomorrow a few days ago after the Euro dropped it. Just red flags for me and its hard to buy in.

Yeah, but only slightly. And nothing to support the explosive 12z GFS solution.

UKMET is east which euro will probably follow.

Couldnt ask for a more beautiful look (from warm-heavy CPC no less) in the dead of winter. Below avg temps and above avg precip in MI

I like how even thought the UK misses east with the coastal, it produces a snowy Saturday with a plowable snowfall for I-95 N&W.

ive been saying the same as well. Apparently warm kitty started a thread for that but i could have swore it was for 1-15/16 and he changed the title to 18/19

I hate you all. With love

where is this thermometer placed, in the Upside Down?

To that point, I can vividly remember being under a moderate risk, and the weather service/media was bangin the drum about it all week. Then I overheard a father and daughter asking each other if it was supposed to rain. I wanted to shake them violently.

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment

Son of a gun, I remember that! Was on Skyline Drive in Virginia heading north in my Olds 88 when a freak, violent snowstorm struck. With strong winds and cannon shots of thunder drifts built on the road so quickly I (and everyone else) got stuck. We had to wait for a snow plow to clear the drifts before we could move again. When finally getting down from the mountains saw it had only rained just below us. WILD!

one thing out of all your analysis is the GFS ensembles are west from the previous run