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I was about to contradict you, but nope, you're right. This is the stats for every January 13th in the last 30 years at DCA. 60% of all Jan 13th's (since 1996) have been at or above 50.

WB is behind. Its around 15z Tues that is of interest.

Seeing a trend in the last 3-4 gfs runs. Might steal a little something there?

18z GFS trying to make this interesting on 1/18-19....not gonna quite get there but that was a pretty good sharpening of the trough compared to previous runs.

I pulled some soundings off the HRRR for the Bays Mt band. I may pull some more if it keeps showing it. I'm not good at reading soundings other than the bare minimum of hodographs and thermal/ moisture profiles/ DGZ, so I was wondering if there is any other info in these soundings that might add something to how we understand the band. Just for comparison here is a sounding just SW in northern Greene county: I'll be heading up to Kingsport Thursday AM, so hopefully I can do some more investigating.

Although its the trailing energy the produces the lift and precip on previous runs, so maybe

Yeah, too far east. Just some interesting changes

Well vs 12, moisture on the coast now wehre there was none. But it's too far east

Tomorrow evening around 7pm looks to be the heaviest snow 3-4 per GFS

Damn WB so slow. But I don't like it at hour 102. Positively tilted.

Oh you know it. A week of 40's and rain coming up.

Diffrent look upstairs on the GFS so far. Prob won't amount to much tho

Its frenetic as fuck. Fun! GFS has been most persistent, although all over the place from run to run.

AI GFS is closer with Sunday and looks much colder. But after what the GFS did with our snow/rain showers on Thursday and hyped it into a big snowstorm, it’s hard to believe

Re: Weds…18z GFS w a lee side low again on this run. Slight uptick in intensity for E TN folks and Plateau.

Cmc has it at 12z

The Cape storm is centered on the the 19th-20th. Anything else is not mine lol. That's the window I said I liked for a winter storm based on the ens h5 look several days ago now. It has changed some ofc. But still.

You know what model will show it? The GFS. Then it'll keep showing it until the Euro shows it. But the JV CMC and UKIE and ICON won't show it. Then the GFS trends away, then the Euro, and we get nothing. OR The JV models will show it, and we get a 12+" blizzard.

It IS a sloppy phase but also there's no real high in place in SE Canada so probably even in a clean setup that one verbatim is close.

I mean ens seem to like some chances maybe we will get it to go off here soon.

reverse march 2001 trends will happen on the NAM, because it's the NAM

It latched on to the storm fail on 1/15-1/16 before the GFS did. I guess that's not saying much

Its been frustratingly close. I have a feeling...but it might just be this HH bourbon.