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Exactly! 3 days ago it just looked like a Southern CT event. It's now looking great for a lot of us. I just got an Arctic Cat Z120 running for the kids, should be a fun Saturday.

Closed until the potential on the 8th.

No, I hear that....I get the limitations, as I was just saying to Wolfie, but I do think a 5" cap is a bit stringent...EURO is a hair light on QPF IMHO, but yea...toss the GFS 12" clown-kuchie to Mars.

Looking at the 06z Euro and the more I look at it, the more excited I am for some folks. 850/700mb closed off circulations as low is coming out of the GL. If those can maintain that for several hours longer as they slam into this arctic boundary, we may see some pretty hefty totals. Will also help those further east.

Queue the “the airmass is cold” posts, I’ll start: damn it’s cold outside even in Manhattan! 20/6

Lol…I don’t think I’m getting 12”…I think my point is, this has turned into what looks to be a significant region wide event. That was not the case just a very short time ago. My posts from the first page of this threat, mentioned all any of us needed, was incremental shifts over the next 2 days…and that’s what has happened. Especially for those EOR, and beyond. That’s all. Enjoy. I know I’m gonna.

If anything I would bet the over on freezing rain, ice Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

15/4 as I just posted in the main thread. We are under a WSW, with point click at 4-6”; candidly I think we come up short of that range. Good luck to those east of me.

They went on a rant for the ages when they came to gribs their torch was not going to happen Friday. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

All of JD's booze and food on me at the next GTG if anyone in SNE gets 12".

Confluence backed off a bit and it's coming further north, but the characterization of the storm hasn't changed....it's a moderate system abutting strong confluence...if anything, it's attenuating on approach.

I think up towards I 80 down near I78 might be more impactful especially as ya go East. As far as the restrictions go I believe yes they are still level 3. I’m retired now so I’m not really in the loop anymore. Safe travels if ya have too.

I am actually ok with this today. I am taking care of my friend’s horses in VA just across from Point Of Rocks. And the younger Ms J has two pet sitting drop ins around Frederick. I do not want any ice. I am still going to watch to see if we both need to move our afternoon/ evening care times up. The sky to the east though is a fireball. And we all know red sky at night sailors delight. Red sky in the morning sailors take warning.

15/4 out my way in this part of western Morris County. Nearly every model has the sharp cut-off with the good totals to my immediate southwest, so my expectations are in line. I would note, to my untrained eye, the CAD isobars seem primed to put up a good fight with whatever warmth is coming; keep the faith for those north/east of me.

Not really though…but we can disagree.

I'll never forget the Valentines Day Storm of 2007. I had so much hope for that. So much f'ing sleet.

The overnight guidance has reaffirmed the idea of a 4"-8" snowfall in and around the New York City area. Much of the snow could fall during a 3-hour stretch during the evening when snowfall rates approach or reach 1" per hour. Parts of the Hudson Valley and western Connecticut could see even more intense hourly snowfall rates. During the height of the storm, snow-to-liquid ratios could be 11:1-12:1 in the region. Ratios will fall as the mid-level warms and will likely be around 8:1 late in the storm. The storm could still end with some sleet in and around New York City. The risk of sleet increases the farther south and west one goes. The consistency of the quality guidance in focusing the heaviest snows on an area that covers New York City, the Hudson Valley, and western Connecticut provides confidence that this region will experience a significant snowfall. In terms of the EPS and GEFS, 90.2% of ensemble members show 4" or more snow for New York City. Just 1 member has 2". The range between lowest and highest amounts is 2"-8" on the ensembles. A much larger share of precipitation will fall as freezing rain and/or sleet farther south. Philadelphia will likely pick up a coating to 2" of mainly sleet. The lower part of that range is probably more likely than the upper end. In contrast, Boston will see the heaviest snows pass to its south. A 1"-3" snowfall is likely there. If Boston and Philadelphia see less than 2" of snow while New York City picks up 6" or more, that would be a very infrequent outcome. Since 1890, 175 storms have brought 6" or more snow to New York City, but just five saw both Boston and Philadelphia pick up less than 2" of snow. The most recent such storm occurred during February 26-27, 1991 when Boston saw 0.7", New York City picked up 8.9", and Philadelphia received 0.1". All said, New York City and its nearby suburbs remain in line for a 4"-8" snowfall. The snow should start overspreading the region during the mid- or late afternoon and work across Long Island during the early evening.

Irrelevant.

This is my thinking too. Nam is prob too aggressive, but its most likely closer to reality than the coldest models. From southern bk and queens on a rough line through my area and a bit further west id be shocked if we didnt go to sleet long enough to cut accums by a decent amount.

Even there, very isolated if so...but I was referring to SNE.

No one in most of SNE(save for the SW half of CT), was even getting a snowstorm 24-36 hrs ago.

Someone in the Hudson valley/out that way may.

GWDLT…in Indiana that is. That’s a summertime low out there.