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Yeah clearly an error with the graphics, the transition zone is usually 70 miles. Could be bigger this time cause the waa is even higher up.

Map still coming, but most of us pushing warning criteria by 5am Sunday

Lets see what actually happens...

suck on that tailpipe

AIFS / Euro AI doesn't have a direct ice chart, but here is what I discern from QPF and time the sounding is ice for KCHA. Might start as sleet but goes FZRA pretty quickly. Through Saturday night 1 to 1.5 inches QPF is over 1/3 inch ice and possibly a half inch ice accretion here. Anything greater than that (and it's definitely on the table) gets historic. Points to my northwest (Middle Tenn not necessary BNA) have over 2 inches of liquid rain locally 2.5. Some of that has to come as sleet. Still could be well over a half inch of FZRA with plenty of 3/4 inch reports.

This is a region-wide 12-16 assuming 14:1. First since major since March 2019

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Not ready to say how much of what. Waiting for high definition models. "Wintry mix"

6z actually had more QPF

Caution flag?

I feel like a lot of the time with these things, the timing of the dry slot and the period in which we would mix tend to align

Wow

At least we aren't heading into a bad pattern- there should be more chances after this one.

Euro never handles sleet well on the precip type maps

1.00 - 1.25 now centered in the NYC/NJ area

That would be a ton of ice... or are they changing to rain?

Anybody got the 10:1 Euro output?

you can't be serious

low 20s

Know it isn't a forecast... but that has to be one of the widest swaths of 12-18in that i have ever seen

One thing I can say with a lot of confidence...... When we absolutely don't need a phase to happen, it will happen. When we do need a phase it won't.

Man. That is a catastrophic ice storm for southern VA. Temps in the low 20s during that freezing rain.