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  2. weatherwiz
    Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.
  3. CoastalWx
    I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.
  4. FPizz
    Same for all the X posts that were wrong. You better go tell everyone!
  5. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.
  6. Today
  7. Brewbeer
    still haven't installed, these past few nights have been gloriously cool and perfect for sleeping.
  8. Brewbeer
    hope we get a good soaker tomorrow or the lawns will be crying for wawa
  9. snowman19
  10. SnowGoose69
    There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely.
  11. forkyfork
    i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed
  12. Typhoon Tip
    it matters when deniers are using 100ths of a decimal to make dullard points
  13. HoarfrostHubb
    Should I uninstall? I figure if I was supposed to install in March or something, that woud make sense
  14. GaWx
    Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8. You posted earlier today this: “Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.” This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined.
  15. snowman19
    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
  16. GaWx
    But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?
  17. canderson
    Timing might be an issue getting anything severe here. We’ll see!
  18. csnavywx
    1997-98 comps and crayon drawers get nuked.
  19. Typhoon Tip
    Why, what's up?
  20. kdxken
    Back broken?
  21. Chrisrotary12
    Have to wait until after dark? This is DOA.
  22. mreaves
    The leaves have that leathery look.
  23. snowman19
  24. GaWx
    Regarding 1+2 less 3.4 per the table link below, 1982-3 fall/winter monthly peak was +1.1. This is based on Nov, which had 1+2 at +3.0 vs 3.4’s +1.9. 1997-8 peak differential was way up at +2.1 (also in Nov)! This is based on 1+2’s +4.5 vs 3.4’s +2.4. But the Euro per Ben’s quoted charts above has a mere only ~+0.7 for 2026-7’s peak monthly 1+2 less 3.4, which is in Sept with 1+2 then ~+3.8 vs 3.4’s ~+3.1! So, the Euro is actually forecasting 26-7 to have a somewhat weaker 1+2 less 3.4 than 82-3 and MUCH weaker than 97-8. So per this measure, it’s forecasting a less E based 26-7 than 82-2 and MUCH less E based than 97-8. Monthly ERSST: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii
  25. Brian D
    Yeah, I saw that. HS state track going on yesterday, and today. Finals are today. My gson has qualified in the 110m & 300m hurdles. THHS is in Section 7A. At state they compete within Class A. 3 classes in the state. A, AA, AAA with their respective Sections. Hopefully nothing will pop this aftrn down there at St. Michael.
  26. csnavywx
    What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.
  27. hawkeye_wx
    I was fortunate to get 0.94" overnight and this morning because, overall, this disturbance did not drop the widespread 1-3" some models were advertising a day or two ago. Areas from Iowa City east and south got almost nothing. There was also zero lightning/thunder with this rain. It had also looked like Friday night would be a good storm/rain event across the area, but now that appears to be gone south, so there are some spots in ec/se Iowa that will get nothing from both nights.
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