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Seems like that’s the only time he shows up in the MA and Philly thread

18z GFS is yea... not great

gfs no bueno

it’s gonna work for now

Yeah but not much. The GFS OP looks like crap so far, however

I mean, its quite obvious its much flatter

something cooking up @ 108

Yep. 12z Aigfs has had a consolidated vort at hr 102 all this time...18z it's split and is later coming together

I also don’t think the long range pattern is conducive to sustained periods of warmth in the spring.

I must say, really liking the trend for the more amplified ridge out west leading into this, across multiple models. And that still seems to be continuing too.

Surprised to hear you being less enthused over a model run....

The fog and rain the next 3 days are going to do damage. By the time Sunday comes around, I'd bet there's not much left other than piles.

18z looking very flat so far.

I think this will wind up pretty far south unfortunately

I think you can already see the start of that on the 18z

It better get going soon

GFS is awfully flat through 93 compared to 12z.

This feels like something that is gonna trend more and more east/develop later and later from this model suite on, smh

Following a foggy start, tomorrow will see highs reach the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely later tomorrow into early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. Numerous ensemble members and operational models continue to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 22-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario. An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter. The SOI was +15.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Gfs robot shifted east.

Weekly ice updated today. Also added accumulated ice for the season so far.

looks like a RT 2 NMA SNH/VT type jack to me, but I'll take anything at this point, I'm about 2' to climo and if this or this weekend doesn't deliver, it's looking like mud season, looks decent for the weekend though, we'll see, rug pulls are becoming common place around here

I’ve never been to Mammoth, but have skied in extreme conditions in Montana and New Mexico. The heaviest snow I’ve ever seen was actually in Taos NM. 4 feet of snow in 2 days. The powder was surreal! They will likely get double that or even more at Mammoth this week! You seriously have to be extremely careful even more so after a snow of this magnitude once the snow ends. Like you said Carver, you can’t see anything and you don’t know what obstacles or tree wells, holes, etc you might encounter. Plus the resistance from the powder is difficult to navigate when it’s that deep. It’s fun to experience it but it’s hard to do anything much with it. It’s hard to imagine that there’s too much snow to ski on, but that is kinda what happens. Now give it a few days and it will be epic! However, with the forecast looking like a steady atmospheric river of snow, it might be more than a few days before they can reopen it!

I know but it’s old info at this point.

GFS running now,,,,,,,,,tick tock