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I do believe i detect a wind direction starting to change! Good

9-10 I think

Snow will overspread the region tonight and continue into tomorrow. It should taper off to flurries during the middle or latter part of the morning in New York City and early afternoon on Long Island. The New York City area will see a general 3"-5" snowfall with some locally higher amounts. Final estimates: Allentown: 2"-4" Atlantic City: 3"-5" Baltimore: 3"-5" Bridgeport: 2"-4" Islip: 3"-6" New York City: 3"-5" Newark: 3"-5" Philadelphia: 3"-6" Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Washington, DC: 2"-4" In the wake of the system, tomorrow and Monday will be blustery and cold days. High temperatures will likely wind up below freezing. The WPO has reached severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise. The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +4.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.254 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7° (4.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Can confirm in Iowa. Much more precip than expected. It was very high ratio snow, was expecting 2 inches and got more like 6.

Wet bulb freezing line is just west of I-95. I'm liking this storm more by the hour.

Rgem beefed up again

Indeed

That wording is tied to the hazard. In this case, a warning.

100% agree. The sun angle at this point would really inhibit daytime accumulation. Meanwhile, NORLUN or bust.

High of 41 and just starting to tick back down

The retiring NAM says all systems go lol. 3k and 12k lining up within 12 hours can’t hurt though

BWI has been as warm as approx 42 today. I’m a 20-min drive from BWI — generally to the west — to Columbia and have stayed at 37 for hi temp so far. Just a little elevation helps.

Starting to get very interesting - been a while since trends were favorable at the end..

I really underestimated how much I had. Just measured 3 spots all about 2 inches.

18Z ICON better than 12Z. Especially out this way.

Great Snow game tomorrow, perfect timing.

Cloudy 29.5/22.8

Go Navy, Beat Army!

At one point the HRRR wanted to pump us to the mid-upper 40s. I topped out at 42 also.

Dark green now covering the city

.5” QPF would be lit

18z NAM and HRRR have some insane lift for several hours through the DGZ. There's legit upside potential for this one.

Yeah, there's apparently some mixed up data as there's different locations from different Modeling. I think the Kelvin and Rossbys are alot of our problems as Jax pointed out. Makes sense.

We’ll cool down quick when the winds switch to offshore I think.