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HRRR still giving us hope

That said:

Hot off of BTV's presses

I turn 28 in January and I do remember how horrid 2011-12 was after the big one in October. 2015 with the 70s Christmas week was shocking, and I missed on bigger snows for January 2016 blizzard by barely 40 miles. To some degree I do know.

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BTV

That sounds like i might get something decent.

I know what you mean ... I don't mean to sound condescending/boomer-ish but, I think that relative to your age they've been less occurring. I remember several in the 1980s and 1990s. They're just not as common anymore - gee wonder why ... They're also no a big deal. If treatment is applied to the walkways and roads they're reduced to a non-story. Problems is, the latter seldom was in time.

EPS mean for Friday-Saturday is a paltry 0.5" or so across the region but that's better then the 0" it had at 06z. Gotta bring her back slowly AIFS mean is 1-1.5" but it clearly does a terrible job of factoring out ice/mix, which does still seem to be in the cards for that time period, unfortunately.

Retreating here for a while; the main thread is a disaster. All rather interesting as the city was never supposed to see any accumulation. I always wonder about the age of our posters as the younger generation has no idea as to how lean winters around here can be.

Who likes alcohol with shoes anyway. Not very tasty.

Yep, some really good ones out there! I don’t like to drink alcohol during week nights because I get up early for work (like 4:30 am), so I love NA brews because I can get my fix anytime not just on weekends. 44 and blazing sun. Can’t be good for temps in a marginal situation.

Maybe something Friday/Sat first?

12z euro has a few N/S shortwaves that produce or come close to producing. .

Bottom line from the 12z long range is that we aren't losing this pattern for at least the next 7 to 10 days. We shouldn't see huge storms, but we can definitely score some snow before Christmas.

Love it. Woke up this morning with nothing on radar, opened the shades and it was snowing. Some kind of wonderful.

There was a storm about 8 years ago (ish, I can remember where I was living) where I said "make sure to clear off your cars because whatever slop is on them after the storm is going to freeze real solid." And it did.

Yep, fits well with the rule of thumb that the GFS is often too progressive. One thing we have working for us for once is the northern stream is not going to become dominant with this one

They stole a lot of UI from TT. It's much better, I still prefer TT, but PWx has the Euro so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah you may see most of those locals only get to like 33F or so. I always think a true flash freeze is overrated around here, but tomorrow is interesting. It will get down into the 20's tonight so these paved surfaces will get cold. I guess we'll see what kind of treatments are applied, but with precipitation falling much of the day and then dropping below freezing through the evening and back into the 20's...things could slick up quick if not treated.

Yeah looks like a significantly BN start to the month at least. Get the ground nice and frozen for the grinch.

Sounding from Cville is juiced with saturation past 400mb and well through the DGZ. Also has strong frontogenesis through the 850-700mb layer before LFC would take over above the inversion. Would be a fun evening!

Like last year.

This cool season so far, it seems we permanently have the D13-15 torch instead of our usual D13-15 blizzard.