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@ChescoWx "When you hear claims that “the science is settled,” remember that the science is built on data that has been repeatedly altered. But if the proof relies on manipulated data, then the case collapses." So produce the data that refutes it in a reputable study using scientific methodology, have it stand up to peer review and scientific scrutiny, and publish the results. Nothing is stopping anyone from doing this. But without producing such studies you are doing exactly what you are accusing the scientific community of doing. Worse, you aren't even doing the work, you're just "saying stuff" on the internet. Anyone can say absolutely anything. Objective evidence is what is needed for a claim to be taken seriously. Currently there are no credible scientific studies that prove humans are not contributing to climate change. NASA https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/ Reports or articles arguing against human-caused climate change typically originate from advocacy groups, political think tanks, or non-peer-reviewed blogs (such as the Heartland Institute or CLINTEL) rather than accredited scientific research institutions. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/mythbusters

I honestly don’t even look at the GFS anymore.

Once we saw the complete trade wind reversal and the record-breaking WWBs/DWKWs this spring along with the full-scale propagation east of the 30C warm pool, I knew this thing was going to shoot to the moon. The DWKWs breaking at the South American coast and the ++PMM were the clues that it was going to be severely east-based. The +IOD forming also fell right into place this fall too, as was expected, so no shock there

This year different types of trees and their locations are in different fall foliage stages. Some trees have already gone past peak and some have lost most of their leaves - some trees have mainly green leaves - and various others are changing colors at different speeds ..........

This could be about it for the season. Two storms make up almost 60% of a sad seasonal ACE number.

Foliage at peak up this way. Looks real nice especially at sunrise / sunset when the sun hits the trees at lower angle. Was up at High Point yesterday and past peak there. Clocks go back next Sunday. About two months to go until shortest daylight of the year. Marching towards Winter but keep your expectations in check and you won't be disappointed. Always room for a surprise so hang your hat on that for now. Next seasonal benchmark is when does CP hit freezing or below? Looks like 3rd. week of November at the absolute earliest. Not seeing anything to make me believe it will be sooner than that. Better than 50/50 chance not until December IMO based on the pattern and LR guidance. In the meantime enjoy this weather. It doesn't get better than this as far as perfect Fall weather.

gust to 89 knots at Yonaguni Island, Japan (outside of Taiwan, which is on the left)

Welp

just went back and looked at when Killington opened for the 80-81 season. They opened October 14 and closed May 27. I was senior in HS and distinctly remember a cold morning on the south shore talking about it before first period math class with friends. It's funny Killington was the ultimate destination for me. Places further north were just too far away so I never went until I started skiing again with my son in the early 2000's. The long season and the advertised vertical was such a draw. Would have sworn it was the snowiest place in all of New England. I read a post online that Killington opened 26 of 27 years in October from '74-75 thru '00-01 - impressive.

Today we should see highs from upper 50's in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots. The NWS has issued a freeze watch for tonight with temperatures near freezing or below in valley locations to just above freezing on the ridge tops. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal this weekend before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 4 degrees above normal. We look to stay dry through next Friday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 154 years ago today back in 1872 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 2.62" of rain at Pocopson. This was an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 50 miles of the county.

Broken record. Frost again.

Today we should see highs from upper 50's in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots. The NWS has issued a freeze watch for tonight with temperatures near freezing or below in valley locations to just above freezing on the ridge tops. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal this weekend before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 4 degrees above normal. We look to stay dry through next Friday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 154 years ago today back in 1872 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 2.62" of rain at Pocopson. This was an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 50 miles of the county.

I rebranded and reactivated my old facebook weather page from years ago. https://www.facebook.com/share/1DuF6Nz4VB/?mibextid=wwXIfr

The one good team in the division fell apart, that doesn't make the others magically better all of a sudden.

Same hear. Heavy frost in the valleys.

What I've been finding interesting too is over the past few years (I'll even say several) it seems the big deviations don't even occur from incremental errors or differences that leads to the large differences...its like a switch flips at D3-4 and the divergence in guidance is through the roof. There will be subtle differences in key features through D3 and then all of a sudden D4...its like WTF just happened

My IKON pass is good at snowshoe, kids love it there. Might be there a lot of weekends this winter. In 2022 I was at Snowshoe for that big storm they got in January, I think we had a few inches here before rain but it was like 30-40" there, hard to tell it was windy but it made that winter feel a lot better.

Been foggy here in town since yesterday aftrn. A little mist mixed in, as well. Temps steady between 45-50.

I have a feeling this is going to be an absolutely horrific late spring/winter for forecasting. Just look at the differences between the Euro/GFS beginning at D3-4 lol...totally not even in the same ballpark with many of the upper-level features. Check out how the GFS/Euro handle that system digging into the PAC NW lol...its laughable

October 23 1899: An unseasonably warm day occurs in the Twin Cities, with a high of 82. For Friday, October 23, 2026 1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum) 1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 23 Fri National Paralegal Day 23 Fri National TV Talk Show Host 23 Fri Mole Day 23 Fri National Boston Cream Pie Day 23 Fri National Croc Day 23 Fri National iPod Day 23 Fri Swallows Depart from San Juan Capistrano Day 23 Fri T.V. Talk Show Host Day

I am glad I skipped Linn Cove this year as I heard it was a zoo even at sunrise now. I used to go every year for fall but this time I went for WV/VA.

I picked nearly 3 dozen Jet Stars last week and told my wife that was a wrap. Last evening, I picked 10 more! My tomatoes are still going.

Maybe. MOS has been running 36-37 at ORH. Looks like another rad pit special.

Great call on this....I always figured that guidance was overcooking the move westward, but I did think it would be more evenly distributed than this by now. While I still think it will, as it really only has one direction to go, I am now certain that I will be filing this one under my east-base composite rather than basin-wide like 2016 and 2024.