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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well we had a 5030dm trough yesterday, and now models warm up the area north of Alaska to +250dm for several days. Really cold periods are reversing. Montana had snow in late June then it was an all time record high in Billings, MT, 111 degrees (beating their old all time record of 108) a few weeks later. DJF 25-26 was cold, then March 26 was record warm by the largest margin ever seen. I don't think the long term mean can really go very cold right now, but we may get periods of below average. Check out the correlation since 2012 though. 2019 was the warmest summer and then 19-20 was the coldest Winter of the period 60-90N.
  3. JTA66
    Hope you’re cashing in when we’re under some SE pig ridge/-pna from hell regime!
  4. JACKASS
    How early in the day is it acceptable to start though?
  5. bluewave
    The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes. There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter. It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10. We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then.
  6. Stormlover74
    Pouring out in bridgewater even though radar isn't all that impressive looking
  7. NEG NAO
    Precip is light here in Central NJ - its drying up as it moves north - but making the atmosphere much more humid Heat Advisories and T -storms next couple of days at least - sounds like fun.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2017 the whole arctic (60-90N) is the leading indicator for Winter pattern 60-90N. It usually reverses.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. bluewave
    2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.
  11. Damage In Tolland
    What do you know . Dews are 70 . Now who would have thought ?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice post. Record breaking El Nino it is! This Winter will be an interesting data point! I love extremes, gives a lot of information.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, give me a Super Nino STJ in -NAO/AO. I'm leaning towards above average snowfall right now.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm loving the -500mb over the Arctic this warm season. 2024 and 2025 are actually good analogs there, and they both had Winter ridging 60-90N.
  15. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    It is. I can’t stand the ex hubby either. Now he is after the money by taking this shoddy stance in order to maximize lawsuits later.
  16. CAPE
    Jan and esp Feb look quite acceptable on the latest run. Beginning of winter is likely gonna suck so who cares about the 3 month maps. Best chance for a big East coast snowstorm will probably be mid Jan to mid Feb, but Dec is(subjectively) a modest improvement at h5 over the July run.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global warming is obviously occurring?
  18. Torch Tiger
    12z euro looks semi-interesting Tuesday for a few runs. Mcs look
  19. GaWx
    New Euro at 2m: looks good to me but I expect Dec to be mild. So, I’d take this in a heartbeat! Jan is slightly cooler: I like
  20. Interstate
    well that storm has moved over east central Balt Co and it is no joke... It is raining in sheets... rain gauge says it is averaging 3.47 inches per hour
  21. bluewave
    That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.
  22. RUNNAWAYICEBERG
    This is your brain on beer…
  23. ThePhotoGuy
    1.58 for the day and 2.60 for August already. Ready for the drought to come back!
  24. Interstate
    e44 it is.
  25. wncsnow
    .23 today after the latest round. Truly the dog day's of summer.
  26. mitchnick
    Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's.
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