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I think warm and wet should be the default forecast for the upcoming winter. However, unlike the lowest snow winters which tended to be low qpf, there will be snow imho ranging from 50-80% of normal. It should be quite stormy but the majority of the storms will probably be wet. However as others have mentioned, it takes 1-2 big events with just enough cold to allow snow to bring totals close to normal hence the 80% ceiling.

More please.

We had 3 months to enjoy it.

warm and rainy

I'll be 93, this'll be my goal

We're a blip in time. Life goes on.

Latitude can help. January 2023 was +8.8, warmest for that month in 28 winters, but had 29.9" snow, 9.7" AN. The 4 months DJFM ran +4.7 with each month AN - Feb closest at +1.5 (and least snowy of the 4). The snow season total was 101.2" (avg currently 88.4") and 96.3" came during those months, 123% of average. That said, the only very strong Nino since moving here (2015-16) was our worse snow winter, 48.2".

Dew Point falling, spirits rising.

He was about 2 miles from like 2.5”. I’d say I was right. He also seems to run a little low on the rain front, but seems to get a little excited and perhaps angles the ruler a bit too much during winter.

39F at the top of the Gondola at 11am. 55F in the valley. It feels like real fall today.

It was far too dewey last night, NW flow put a stop to that. Winds increasing and leaves falling at my locale.

While disappointed by the loss to the Eagles, that game gave me the vibe of JD5's first game against the Bucs, I knew they were going to lose, but hoped the signs were there that the team could compete. Last year being a complete wash, I think this game, particularly the second half, could be a harbinger of some better days this year. I think there is real shot to emerge 2-2 or 3-1 out of the first quarter.

That’s a stunning storm east of Hawaii. Great grab, could fit the entire big island in the eye

Little back door front tomorrow will be quite nice for NC peeps but SC and Ga will have to wait

Absolutely gorgeous out right now with a cool breeze. Not a cloud in sight.

it was much better than I had expected. The call on the 2pt conversion was asinine though. WTF was that.

Rain just started here. Temps will be stuck in the upper 50s most of the day. Looks like a quality fall soaker, we need it.

My kids will be in their late 70s, I’ll be 109

Good to hear! When I left for work this morning I was stunned at how humid it still was. Dewpoint was 62, now it's down to 53.

Definitely a fall-like feel. Winds blowing in the upper 20s.

Been 12 for me. I know NWS Blacksburg is having a basic class on the 17th at VT. Bit too far to go to. When I took what was then a 'refresher' back in 2014 at the local community college they even let me give a small spill/push for CoCoRaHS at the end to the other folks there.

I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly. I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections. A good example of another current forecasting discussion thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out: