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Lay that base down

Definitely!

Everything is fine

And the lake effect belts should be in for a fun time with the waters still being pretty warm

Music to the ears, that was a good look and result, pic was 12/22/2007:

Do you know how hard it is for the EPS to show such a negative anomaly in the long range with our background state?

I think he used to?

Models/ensembles have Colorado down near 0 degrees on Dec 1st.

I always thought Ed with the Uggs lived near Albany

Remove the interim tag at halftime.

Euro AI ENS. Looks about the same as the EPS. Pretty cold look towards the end of the first week of of Dec. Snow? Not very likely outside of the western highlands, but a positive start to met winter if it verifies..

I have a c1795 house, replaced shingled roof with all metal in fall of 2021. and I'm having gutters installed all around. With the right (strong) debris filter included and stout anchors, the better installers can mitigate risk of sliding snow or ice even with metal roofing. It's not just about driplines, I've replaced half a dozen sills on windows, two doors needed new thresholds and trim, and multiple clapboards - all due to water damage from years of 'splash-up' water coming off the roof. In a strong downpour there's no way to avoid this damage without gutters catching the water up high. It WILL rot any wood that it contacts, and it doesn't take long. If you value your sills, including sill plates of your foundation, unless they're pressure treated or vinyl/plastic - get gutters. If you don't, your doors, trim, and sills will eventually fall prey to water splashing up from a dripline - even mulch or crushed stone won't eliminate it in a heavy downpour.

We do December snow about as well as DC does sports.

There's drought conditions up and down the east coast right now. I can't even recall the last time there was a major east coast storm. There's been a lack of landfalling GOM/EC hurricanes as well...which makes me think it's all interconnected. We need that southern stream to wake up.

No prob, TY.

Keep in mind that chatGTP is not the be all and end all of accuracy. it is only as good as the search terms, and what is inputted in to it. Too many variables at this point with it IMHO.

Better call the Reaper, lol. He's almost had to tend to me, over lack of snow in the Sierra already this season. TWICE. Reaper's gonna be exhausted this winter.

Unless you moved you absolutely used to live in NJ

All I needed to hear. It seems like every year people throw out that Winter, but it's nice to hear it from a more critical/educated voice.

I do like that we may get to phase 8, and low amp (which is usually the coldest version of 8) and that La Nina is much more likely to produce a +MVP, which means a deep Eastern trough.

Highly, highly unlikely imo.

Euro AI has something tropical near the end of the run too.

Last 70's until 12/24.

If you look at December snowfall for my analogs, it's good in NE and not so great in the mid Atlantic.

Trough east of Hawaii rule-that trough should push east but we have to be patient until probably second half of the month. Hopefully the SE ridge can be muted by then.