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Are we or aren't we getting a storm? That's the question.

The thing that is particularly frustrating about this weekend, is that there was a run (12z Friday, 1/9, I think) where all 3 globals showed a pretty similar system. If it had just been one model, meh.... but all three?

Huh. Skynet had it figured out this whole time.

I think even JB seemed to throw the towel in too. At least were not down to the 2 minute warning with no timeouts left and down by 7 points.

What a terrible day yesterday. For several reasons.

You had your Youtube serenade out just 2 days ago

It has been a Sominex pattern for weeks..

Man I can’t wait for this damn Niña to be done and over with already. They almost never produce snowy outcomes in our part of the country. Already looking forward to next winter with the aspects of a Nino. I’ll take my chances with that everyday and twice on Sundays.

Zzzzzzzz

Need a comeback today on the models for the late week period. Things were looking good through 12z yesterday & then the wheels fell off. Hopefully today we see a better trend.

I was debating DT online RE this....he was arguing that the NAO was more important, and I was saying it was the PNA....this is why.

We should see a nice stretch later on once the MJO hits 7, and especially if it actually hits 8. I hope you were speaking only in terms of intensity, otherwise 2016-2017 is an atrocious analog...that event was Modoki, this is east-based.

That makes a lot of sense. I would suspect we may not know how strong that is until maybe even "go time." Tricky forecast w/ some upside as you note. We just don't want that to jog north at the last minute. Otherwise, that looks spot on.

It’s been a pretty good winter with consistent low snow pack and no extreme cold. Final grade: B-

I would suspect the event for the 17th-18th may well have some high ratios as BigBald noted. I actually like the 0z GEM-para look for that event IF that cold air is legit.

Yea, that threat never had a chance...DOA.

AGAIN...Exactly what I said to expect for this period.....I kept reiterating +PNA January even though long range guidance was trying to show a never ending RNA....also said that PV would get strong as a result of the +TNH and strat reflection, but this is priming the atmosphere to rape the PV next month. IGNORE GUIDANCE. Maybe I will be wrong about the Feb SSW...I don't mean to sound arrogant. All I am saying is that it's too early to know despite long range guidance.

That's about right, with a bit more in eastern NC and the Gulf Coast states lol. Need some changes upstairs or this is gonna be at best a glancing blow. Surface low pressure forms offshore.

PV forecasts this season have been positively abysmal, which is why I'm not yet concerned about my call for a Feb SSW...TBH, I'd prefer that a strong PV be modeled for February at this point.....I have said all along that it won't show up in guidance until the end of January at the earliest. Remember back in December I wasn't worried about the long range saying that the PV would remain weak, so it goes both ways....I'm not just being a weenie.

Nice wintry scene. I’m neutered, brown frown is back…

Last night’s surprise 2.5 is 250x what ill get on the 15/16.

I won’t be surprised. Looks like ass.

I wouldn't give up hope on a nice stretch, but odds of hitting climo snowfall this season in my area are on life support...unimaginable 8th consecutive season.

When a hobby begins to impact someone's physical and mental health that is when it ceases to be a hobby. Some people here have allowed a hobby to morph into an obsession...and that isn't a good thing The vast majority of people here would be better off studying the stock market and/or having a side gig rather than staring at model output day after day...

Can you post? I know it’s a clown map but again, that’s when I’m going skiing so.. maybe I can needlessly hype up the crew lol.