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Just now catching up - had company over today so was quiet. Looks like the ccb may not get far enough west here, and I don’t want to gamble on the norlun, I’m thinking the local min may be imby or close. Running out of time for bigger changes. Should be a great storm with double digits E/NE of DC, and maybe someone lucky will see 10” from the norlun (and I don’t think its going to be me). Historic for DE/PHL/NJ/NYC/BOS, though! Fun to watch from a met perspective.

Magnolia Delaware High today 56F Now 33F Nice white frost

Isn’t that a sign the GFS will be bad?

Here we go..

37.2 here, better than expected.

The fact that Jeff isn't posting anything speaks more loudly than my complaints.

Ensembles are usually more truncated (courser, less dz layers, greater time step), but a model (NAM, GFS, etc...) is just a name given to a set of model configurations. The core (dictates how the atmosphere acts) is one aspect of multiple modeling options/schemes. Here's a table of some NCEP modeling configurations: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/home/table.html

I should go to bed I got work at 6 am but I can't pull away... must watch.... models

Another two considerations: 30-40 inches of 10:1 snow is going to be alot of load for roofs; and it's supposed to rain later in the week, so the snow is going to soak that up. Drains will be blocked too.

A lot of these meso models, have one hell of geographical lift/enhancement signature here in the Poconos.

36.7F here. That's already below what some models were calling for tomorrow at dawn.

Done

No no, thank you. You're a damn legend. I know I speak for many when I say we appreciate you. Know that your work is always valued.

Probably gonna be stuck into the WP like the GEFS shows until that Rossby Wave moves soon,which wont seemingly should happen soon

Excuse my ignorance, but what does “getting Raleigh’d” mean? I keep seeing this phrase on here now- seems to mean getting screwed out of snow somehow?

I'm gonna try to be objective from a normie perspective but the amount of damage that would occur from the NAM verifying would be extreme. We're talking major coastal flooding, major power outages, a shutdown for days. Something out of this world.

Yes road sanders out tonight

Been to a Stew Leonard’s once. I really wish we would get a Trader Joe’s around here but Adam’s has great stuff. I was familiar with going to the Newburgh one from when it opened there and was stoked when I heard they were building one in Middletown.

The 3k is picking up on local topography on NWNJ. The band is over western edge of NNJ highlands region. The lighter band to west is kittatinny ridge .

Some freak soundings on that 0z 3k NAM... this is in southeast MA (though not the biggest DGZ):

Both the NAM and 3K give me over .7. A little fix to tide me over until the Friday system.

Fox 43 has the entire region except extreme eastern LanCo and the like from Carlisle west to like Chambersburg in the 2-5” range (those two others areas 5-8”)

Snowman gotta be punching the air right now

You're the only one that can't spell.