All Activity

Stick to weather. Something you know. There your observations are spot on 25% of the time.

Looks like the line might kinda split those of us in or near the city. Oh well.

Yeah agree. When I see this consolidated, beefy vort swinging NE I wouldn’t think it’s going to get stretched out like Gumby 6hr later. I mean, maybe it has the right idea, but I wouldn’t put my eggs in that solution basket yet.

I just saw that someone started a thread for the 15th..........

Heck of a way to run a +PNA

Ended up with 1.66" of rain.

The GFS upgrade back in 2019 caused it to incorrectly forecast KU snowstorms at times when there was no other model support. This problem still hasn’t been addressed since it may just be an inherent model bias. We are coming up on the 1st anniversary of its 964mb benchmark blizzard that never occurred last January 12th which the Euro forecast correctly showed was a GFS model error. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

That really was PD2 and then some. 2’ down and way more to come lol.

You got as much rain in 24 hours as we’ve had last 4 months combined

Glad I stayed the extra night down here.

1.64" total. A bit more rain than I expected overnight.

Yeah when you see that depiction, it looks like we’d get slammed but then it just shears out.

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.

Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19

It’s a very flawed set up as currently depicted now. I’m thinking this has too many flies in the ointment to be anything more then a nuisance at best. I mean there’s plenty of time, but we’ve seen this before. All these other issues are more likely to overwhelm the evolution, and hamper development.

2” Showers :flakes ? Unless he’s talking about end of week storm

It looks like the euro is going to swing and slam that consolidated vortmax up to the Cape like the goofus and then it just gets sheared and stretched out. But like Bob said, a bowling ULL going W-E through the TN valley/MidAtl is a little far south for my liking. Maybe SNE can cook with it, but I’ll need a lot more trending in the deeper interior.

Man that’s all I want.

Yeah I’m confused

Let’s get some positive trends today. Potential is still high even if all these moving parts make it a tough system to expect big snows with. But hell, I don’t even need the double digit upside here, as much as many of us want it, I’d take a solid 5-8” event and hope we can tack on other systems in this pattern.

He is. Huge severe wx weenie too.

Don't let the lack of us getting any good snow events take you down. It's not worth it. Honestly, we'll get some snow. Maybe we won't get a big one again this year and continue the drought, which sucks, but when we do get it it's all the more sweeter. Chin up

From the sound of the posts…I’m getting the feeling he’s older than you?? Is this correct?

The other issue is that all the deep moisture is way offshore. So you’re struggling to generate precip with whatever remains near the Gulf Stream. The result of such a potent s/w with a lacking BZ is that oblong looking low that remains close to the closed off H5 low. I’d like to see some changes at 12z which likely requires a low much closer to cape cod in order to get anything worthwhile.