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The warm pool moving eastward would be a good thing for us. Basically puts the background conditions to support the strongest convection (essentially the MJO) in a more favorable position for eastern troughing.

That guy is always in defense mode.

Threat for Sunday looks impotent

Yeah good to see the GEFS mean with a slight improvement over 12z and better than the op. Every step in the right direction is welcomed. This next 24 hours of modeling will likely reveal if this will be a wintry threat or not.

Nice parade of cutters on the 18z GFS.

Until other guidance is on board, Out they go.

That may be smart..but if it gets this 14th potential correct, they may be on to something.

AI-Eagle looked much better at 18z

Yes, but 89 shows up too and illustrates another possible outcome, that the best the season has to offer is actually happening right now and once the pattern inevitably relaxes it either never comes back (1990) or once it does it's only after taking an extended break (2005-06). 2005 is referenced because it had a similar gangbusters start and then abruptly collapsed on 12.23, not coincidentally exactly what the GFS was depicting today (so, its not without precedent by a longshot in the...pattern analogs).

I'm tossing the skynet models.

That’s how you get 135k followers lmao . F being right, just post the most extreme and polarizing weather.

Far NW suburbs still on track for a possible C-2" tomorrow. Unlike last week which was more of a latitudinal gradient, this potential wintry event has a stronger elevational component. I could see the top of Schunnemunk or Mt. Beacon getting an inch or two of snow while the Hudson River towns get zilch. Elevated NW NJ could get a little accumulation this time too.

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose

That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap.

Does drought guy have relatives in NY? NY subforum has several recent drought related post. Right up his alley....may want to get him on the horn.

Or insanity

thank you!

Didn't lose much snow today. Took a sunset walk and it was crazy scenic still. What a week...

18z GEFS are more robust than the op. Better in SE areas. Still buckshot but we stay the course.

That model is horrible!

This will be a good test for both of them…if they get this right, that will be pretty impressive.

Yet we get nothing or did it change