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  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The warmth isn't relegated to the east, though. We could see a sequence like 2016 with some extreme intervals of winter weather mixed in...it just won't be sustained.
  3. Scottie16
    July the new April? East Tennessee will likely have a positive amount of rainfall for the month of July. John and myself have pretty good chances of seeing 6+ inches of rain over the next two weeks. Carver, Jeff. Isn’t this similar to 2017-2018? I wasn’t home in Tennessee often that year but I do recall (unless my memories bad) the whole month I was here in June that it rained every damn day. I don’t remember if we were in a drought that year or not. Also to get some chatter going in this quiet place, Is it factual to say we haven’t had a severe outbreak in the area in a long while? I understand that we have had a few F-O tornados and I’m not taking away from that however I feel as if we just have the occasional heavy thunderstorms now. .
  4. Maestrobjwa
    I'd take that...I mean Dec is an automatic punt in a Nino where I am (except 2009). But isn't east-based historically warm all the way through most of the time? (Again, maybe that's just my region) What would be different in the 1/15-3/15 period?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we can get a depression to form
  6. Damage In Tolland
    Why are the rainfall echoes on radar moving ENE over MA and NW in CT? Is it just low level flow ? Or is there some type of mid level circulation over CT?
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Just did mine and it’s thundering again now
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    PROBABLY...but you never know with that much moisture hanging around....I got creamed just before Xmas in 1997, and the same thing nearly happened in 2023...it was just some flukey nuances of the of the PV phase that sent it west.
  9. CAPE
  10. kdxken
    Better than the dimwits who called it over yesterday because the radar lightened up.
  11. CoastalWx
    Yeah, I think earlier on the worry was about those situations I talk about, you get the mesolow with a rotating 50+ DBZ, tropical air over an area and you’re gonna get 3 to 4 inches of rain per hour or more causing flash flooding. Some of the models were hinting at that. That seemed to be a little bit more to the south as we got to game time but couple days out that was a potential.
  12. TheClimateChanger
    Impressive heat at the Buffalo intake "crib" - water temperature up to 75F, tying the record for the date set in 2012, 2002 & 1966. The mean of 1927-2025 is 69F.
  13. mitchnick
    Yes, but the real chances, if they come, would likely be in the 1/15-3/15 period. Barring a miracle, December will likely disappoint if you're looking for snow outside of the higher elevations imho.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    CANSIPS is more full-fledged Modoki. CFS is more reasonable IMO given the magnitude if the warmth within the ENSO region.
  15. CAPE
    "Super" is hyperbolic. Just like monstrous, Ludicrous, or 'Godzilla' Nino. Social media silliness. Official categories for strength of Nina/Nino events are- weak, moderate, strong , and very strong.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, there is going to be some variability....it looks most like the east-based composite, but I agree that there will be some periods of dateline forcing. Heights are also extending back further west than the east-based composite in that forecast, which is a bit more difficult to dismiss than the northward displaced ridging, and denotes what you are referencing.
  17. LakePaste25
    It’s basically a lower % of modoki forcing, so the SE US is NN instead of blue in the seasonal mean.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
  19. Maestrobjwa
    And what would that result in, winter-wise?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    If the model were right, we can probably assume that greater heights will leak southward into the NE given the tendency for seasonal guidance to underestimate modern ridges, so verification would be more reminiscent of the east-based composite.
  21. WxWatcher007
    I don't think any reasonable forecaster was too far out there? I mean my forecast was a general 2-4" in CT with high end localized flash flooding potential, mitigated by the duration of rain and relatively dry conditions beforehand. Also said the axis of heaviest if it set up over CT could produce 6+ somewhere. All the numbers pretty much verified but there was very little flash flooding. I didn't see others saying 1954 was walking through the door but then again I don't really follow what others say. It's totally possible to write and communicate a good forecast without ripping and reading model output verbatim. Everyone serious knew the big rain signal over the region was going to end up focused in much smaller areas.
  22. olafminesaw
    Feels like El nino has finally forced the pattern change, storms developing nicely again today. Going to have to mow the lawn for the third time this summer
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The intense composite has the ridge access displaced more to the south and over NE, like the east-based composite. It's definitely most redolent of east-based as compared to Modoki and Basin-wide, but that slight difference ostensibly allows for a salvageable pattern.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).
  25. Typhoon Tip
    Tomorrow and Thursday may be sneaky hot... American MOS is 87 to 89 -ish, but after all this soil modulation from N VA all the way up .. and not much actual air mass change, the HI's will be 90+
  26. GaWx
    Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).
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