All Activity

I’d like to see the secondary develop more and get more of a CCB versus relying on timing of cold and Precip.

Eh sell for now

finally Weymouth snow. None of this silly fluff bullshit

It sucks ass

This month was the easiest forecast in a while. Persistence + jet 300 miles north due to seasonal progression.

6” in 3 hours at 3,000ft. Still heavy snow.

Hoping for some thunder later tonight. Seems to be some general consensus for a band of showers during the dinner hours, and then a second round of more scattered but also heavier cells closer to midnight. Lapse rates will sharpen a bit as the shortwave swings through, so I don't think that we can rule out some lightning.

This has moved through pretty fast. We really have ripped though.

Lots of support for SNE snow Monday morning

We're just gonna have to get a +3SD ridge with SW flow punching underneath before these models finally, reluctantly stipulate to warming up N-E of the Mason Dixie ... That Euro run's an abomination. 85 in PHL and 35 in BOS and just holds like that for 4 days probably happens

Yes sir. Wish we could score a last one here…especially if it refuses to get nice. 53 degrees here now..not that bad, but it’s cloudy.

Almost 0.30” precip the last two hours in the ASOS gage that usually under reports, no fake fluff either, just a fast QPF dump.

4.9” here

Wow! That looks like a PNW mountain snowpack. Maybe gone by June? lol

Although the flash analysis isn't peer reviewed, it is derived from a peer-reviewed methodology, which provides credibility. These studies provide value, as they provide an alternative to pure statistical research. The corroboration between the modeling and statistics enhances the quality of their findings. Further, studies concerning prior extreme heat outbreaks in the Southwest have all found a strong link to climate change. As for March 2026, March 2026 is poised to become Phoenix's first March to break outside the 99% confidence interval based on 30-year climate data.

Think this is the first time I can remember seeing snow on the ground with temps in the mid 70s.

Looks great!

Heavy snow.

So saddened to just learn that Roger left us at age 76 four days after this post. He had many forecasting highlights in his life, including nailing with his AccuWeather colleagues the Presidents Day Storm of February 18-19, 1979. And he made his last appearance in this contest his best, as he is currently in 2nd place with a realistic chance to win it. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62666-roger-smith-rip/page/2/#comment-8066399

30s no, high 40s yes. Cloudy no, sunny and high 40s sure. Just had a catch with my son now, but its 51.

It happens, you go somewhere indoors and play with them. Otherwise it's fine as long as the sun is out, you can play outside in the 30s & 40s in the spring.

I'm just getting this news on Friday afternoon. Roger put more time into forecasting contests than anyone, and I had a number of private conversations with him. He had a great story of how he and his colleagues at AccuWeather nailed the President's Day Storm of February 18-19, 1979 when nobody else did. RIP, my friend, see you down the road . . .

With wintry weather essentially finished, the thread has really morphed into spring mode posting. Shoot, Blizz hasn't posted in days. Tis the season... For anyone left who lives and dies for winter, I do have this to share - 93 days until the hours of daylight start to decrease.

That’s great!

when you cant hang outside with your kids? Wait until you have multiple kids who want to play outside and they cannot.