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Still below 0 at 9am. Impressive.

I'm going to laugh so hard if this storm busts...not at anyone in particular. Just me, laughing in a crazy, maniacal way, because once again we will have gone snowless.* *I'm kidding. This IS the real deal! (i hope)

thru 33 she's already dropped 9" on Raleigh

Records: Highs: EWR: 66 (2013) NYC: 64 (2006) NYC: 64 (2006) JFK: 62 (2006) Lows: EWR: 3 (1935) NYC: -1 (1873) NYC: -1 (1873) JFK: 7 (2019) Historical: 1936 - Birmingham, AL, established a single storm record and 24 hour record with 11 inches of snow. (29th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1966: The Blizzard of 1966 impacted New York and paralyzed the region. The train service was disrupted. Numerous highways, the New York State Thruway from Albany to the Pennsylvania state line, and the Buffalo Airport and other airports throughout western and central New York were closed. The Syracuse-Oswego area's hardest hit, where Bob Sykes, a meteorology professor at the State University of New York at Oswego, reported a whopping 102.4 inches! Some schools in Orleans County were closed for the entire week following the blizzard. Economic loss from the storm was estimated at $35 million. Winds gusting to 60 mph and temperatures in the teens, and heavy and blowing snow created severe blizzard conditions. 1977 - The great "Buffalo Blizzard" finally abated after three days. The storm added a foot of new snow to 33 inches already on the ground. Winds gusting to 75 mph reduced visibilities to near zero, produced snow drifts twenty-five feet high, and kept wind chill readings 50 degrees below zero. The blizzard paralyzed the city, and caused 250 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A winter storm brought more heavy snow to the North Atlantic Coast Region, with 13.6 inches reported at Hiram ME. January proved to be the snowiest of record for much of Massachusetts. Worcester MA reported an all-time monthly record of 46.8 inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) 1988 - Strong southerly winds, gusting to 53 mph at Kansas City MO, spread warm air into the central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Snow and strong northwest winds ushered cold arctic air into the north central states. The temperature at Cutbank plunged from 54 degrees to a morning low of 7 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) 1989 - The temperature at McGrath, AK, dipped to 62 degrees below zero, and Fairbanks reported a reading of 51 degrees below zero, with unofficial readings in the area as cold as 75 degrees below zero. The massive dome of bitterly cold air began to slide down western Canada toward the north central U.S. Strong southwest winds ahead of the arctic front pushed the temperature at Great Falls MT to 62 degrees, and gusted to 124 mph at Choteau MT, overturning trucks and mobile homes, and a dozen empty railroad cars. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A major winter storm produced heavy snow from Indiana to New England. It was the biggest storm in two and a half years for eastern New York State. Snowfall totals in the mountains of Maine ranged up to 20 inches at Guilford and Lovell. Other heavy snowfall totals included 17 inches at Utica NY, and 19 inches at Bethel VT, Ludlow VT, and New London NH. The storm claimed three lives in eastern New York State, and four lives in Vermont. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2002 - One of the driest Januarys on record in Iowa was broken up by a winter storm that produced snowfall across the state from January 30-31. The snow was heaviest across southern and southeastern Iowa, where storm total accumulations ranged between 11 and 13 inches along and south of Chariton�s line through Ottumwa to Wapello and Burlington. The highest reported totals were 13.2 inches at Leon and 13.0 inches at Bloomfield and Fairfield. 2002: One of the driest Januarys on record in Iowa was broken up by a winter storm that produced snowfall across the state from January 30-31. The snow was heaviest across southern and southeastern Iowa, where storm total accumulations ranged between 11 and 13 inches along and south of Chariton’s line through Ottumwa to Wapello and Burlington. The highest reported totals were 13.2 inches at Leon and 13.0 inches at Bloomfield and Fairfield. 2005 - A significant ice storm struck parts of northern Georgia on the 30th-31st. Ice accretion was as great as 2 inches in Monroe county, located southeast of Atlanta. Power outages in the area at the height of the storm affected nearly 320,000 homes and businesses.

Down to 4 here now to 12 / 5. Sub 20 high today, olver cold into the beyond with some moderation perhaps to or above freezing for some Mon - Wed before next reinforcing shot of cold with arctic front / clipper in the Thu / Fri timeframe with next stronger cold 2/6 - 2/8. Another system pegged for the period of 2/11 - 2/13-14 period.

NAM looks good.

Looks like gonna crank in a bit

Heh yea, but I would say that this event is a lot less complicated than others.

I assumme some heavy banding occurs We will know where when it occurs..............

12z FV3 it’s nice for Western North Carolina. That upper level low just sits and pivots.

Thank you brother. Looking forward to riding this one out with you.

So far this year I should say, feb is looking cold .

It's very much real per a friend in Clintwood and imby. Hope it works down toward yall quickly. @BuCoVaWx @Kentucky How's it looking?

I’d bet it’s just noise, if the euro decreases amounts for us at 12z then I’d get concerned. Either way this is gonna be the best event all year imo .

Remember that post you made about how someone was going to be very wrong about the PV, which I followed up with a comment about how I've been schooling Webb?

8° at KBOS this morning, WC -11°. With the sun angle it didn't even feel that bad. (I think a lot of it is that we're kind of getting used to it.) Today is 6 days at BOS <30°. 9 is likely by Sunday, which would be tied for 11th longest. The record at or below 32° is 16 days. Neither the Euro or GFS has BOS breaking 32 through the end of the model, which if it verified would break that record by a lot. (Thanks goodness we got that storm last week or we'd have cold, mostly-brown conditions which would be miserable.)

I personally appreciate your continued inputs, comments and obs...please keep 'em coming, if you have the time.

Well you’re a met, I take what you say seriously. Imma track obviously. The Euro just spooked me.

my cousin lives in Wilmington, NC they're supposed to get around 5-7 inches apparently

MSP eeked out a low of -1 this morning. We’ve now had a low temperature at or below zero for 14 of the past 15 days.

It is hard to believe we are nearing the start of this event. May the odds be ever in our favor. I am ready to go mobile if I have to in order to get into the FGEN band if it decides to miss my area.

Praying for your wife This storm always has had the potential for banding. In this case, short range models will begin to pick up on this. In addition, where banding sets up will also allow for subsidence on each side, or the sinking of air. This causes drying which means that areas next to high totals could have much lower totals themselves. This is a common feature of very strong mid latitude storms and nearly impossible to predict. That withstanding, global models (with less resolution) will normally smooth out the QPF forecast, whereas short range models will attempt to showcase where these bands set up. This is because globals have a lower resolution and therefore the algorithm will not be able to as readily differentiate banding and this will smooth, or average, out the precipitation forecast over its grid (boxes of resolution, ie 12km, 3km resolution, etc etc). Short range models - or CAMS - have a higher resolution and will thus alter precipitation forecasts more, which is where you usually see the qpf (precip forecast) changing.

Keep the mojo mojoing. Battleground area bound to be around triangle with maybe a dream set up east of triangle. However, I could see battleground area shifting slightly more NW based on overnight changes in runs. Snow on top of the existing ice in Triad and then refreezing should be fun. Good luck and be safe everyone!

Just a snow accumulation forecast