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I still think it’s too cold. If I were to reconstruct the expected pattern you just described on a T2M map for the Feb mean, I’d expect more light red in Western Canada and lighter blue in the SE. That CFS map implies deeper and more persistent Arctic cold, which I don’t agree with.

If true, it's pretty lousy timing. Probably why no one has any excitement about it.

Yes, that is what I find most interesting are the possible implications for Jan 15 th to late Feb. ie. blocking - AO, etc.

Im not sure i can recall the last time we've had this many frosty october mornings in a row.

I would toss any of the years that are <2.0 that just tries to soften the blow, all the super ninos except for one are bad bad here, and the one that isn't is still below normal 15-16. As for my comment about the background state in recent years, I'm talking the last 10 years, which had 1 above normal year, 3 near normal and 6 below normal including the last 4 years in a row. I get you want to shine up this winter some, but eventually you have to look at reality in front of you. The data is bad and we are basically wishing and hoping on luck and nothing else to get us something decent this year.

Not sure how much this is going to help us, I suppose it CAN snow in November but... its likely the impacts of this will be long gone by the time our best snow climo hits. However, I'd be interested in seeing if this kind of event in October increases the chances of additional events later in the cold season.

Interesting

You appear excited Larry! Lol

That’s still a moderate +PNA since SE US H5 anomalies are much lower than those for W Can. Then combine that with an off the charts E Can/W -NAO block diverting cold down into the SE. H5 anomalies are lowest in the SE US of anywhere on the globe in CFSv2 Feb fcast with -8 to -10 dam. Also, cold in SE, especially deep SE, has at most a modest correlation with -EPO: Edit: Also note that climo used by TT here is 1984-2009, which is colder than 1991-2020. So, had 1991-2020 been used instead, H5 anomalies over the E US would be even lower since mean H5 has warmed.

I really like this guy! He doesn't hype, but comes up with some great reasons/research of why a pattern can help predict upcoming events. Eurasian SNOW COVER SURGING — ANOTHER PIECE OF THE WINTER PUZZLE FALLING INTO PLACE. Northeast Weather Alert 30 minutes ago 3 min read Rated 0 out of 5 stars.No ratings yet The slow start to Eurasian snow-cover expansion is officially behind us, and the latest developments are becoming increasingly interesting as we approach November. Many of you who followed my discussions last winter will remember the attention I gave to Eurasian snow cover and its potential influence on the larger Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Well, we're beginning to see some noteworthy developments once again. The latest NOAA observations show a sharp acceleration in Eurasian snow-cover expansion during the second half of October. More importantly, both the ECMWF operational model and its ensemble guidance support continued above-normal expansion through the remainder of the month. WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING Between October 16 and October 20, observed Eurasian snow cover increased dramatically, climbing from approximately 2.7 million square kilometers to nearly 4.9 million square kilometers across the monitored region. Looking toward October 31, the ECMWF projections indicate: ECMWF Ensemble Mean: Approximately 6.62 million km². ECMWF Operational: Approximately 7.03 million km². Snow Advance Index: Both projections indicate faster expansion than the historical October average. This is a substantial turnaround from the relatively sluggish expansion we witnessed earlier in the month. And this is exactly the type of development I pay attention to when evaluating the potential evolution of our winter pattern. WHY EURASIAN SNOW COVER MATTERS There is an important atmospheric relationship worth understanding here. When snow cover expands rapidly across Eurasia, particularly Siberia, it can promote stronger surface cooling and support the development of an extensive Siberian high-pressure system. Under favorable conditions, this can influence planetary-wave activity, allowing more atmospheric energy to propagate upward into the stratosphere. That interaction can contribute to disturbances of the stratospheric polar vortex, potentially increasing the likelihood of a weaker vortex and a more negative Arctic Oscillation. The relationship isn't automatic, nor does every year with rapid Eurasian snow expansion produce the same winter outcome. Nevertheless, it's an important part of the larger hemispheric circulation that I continue to monitor. WHAT THIS COULD MEAN FOR THE NORTHEAST Here's where my interest continues to grow. I've been discussing the possibility of a colder second half of winter, particularly from mid-January through March, and the latest Eurasian snow-cover developments are another potentially supportive signal. When combined with the evolving Pacific circulation, QBO, potential high-latitude blocking, and signs of increasing stress on the polar vortex, I see a developing atmospheric picture that deserves serious consideration. I continue to lean toward a colder second-half winter pattern across New England, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey than some of the prevailing seasonal projections suggest. My interest is not limited to brief Arctic outbreaks. I'm watching the possibility of a more sustained pattern featuring eastern North American troughing, stronger high-latitude blocking, and an increased frequency of cold-air intrusions. Such a pattern could also create more favorable opportunities for winter storm development, provided the necessary moisture and storm tracks cooperate. The rapid expansion of Eurasian snow cover doesn't guarantee those outcomes, but it provides another piece of information as we assess how the atmosphere may evolve. MY OVERALL THINKING What catches my attention is not one isolated atmospheric signal, but the possibility that several different drivers may begin working together as winter progresses. The Eurasian snow-cover expansion, evolving stratospheric circulation, Pacific pattern, and potential changes in the AO and NAO could eventually favor a considerably different weather regime across eastern North America. I remain comfortable with my thinking of a relatively milder first half of winter, followed by a meaningful transition toward colder conditions during the second half. And with what I'm currently seeing, my interest in that colder scenario continues to grow. The next several weeks will be important as we determine whether the developing Eurasian snow-cover pattern is followed by corresponding changes in Siberian high pressure, planetary-wave activity, and the stratospheric polar vortex. My bottom line: The Eurasian snow-cover signal is becoming increasingly impressive, and it's another reason I'm keeping a colder and potentially more active second half of winter firmly in my forecast thinking for the Northeast. There is much more to examine as these atmospheric features continue evolving. I'll bring these signals together in my final 2026–2027 Winter Outlook on November 15, where I'll explain how I believe the larger pattern could unfold across our region. Northeast Weather AlertPattern

Under a huge 500mb Low https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026102200&fh=4

Frost again. 5 nights in a row

My post was purely about the tropical nature of this system vs the Nor Easter a couple weeks ago and the hype surrounding naming that one when it was clearly non-tropical. My post had no mention of land impacts, though both systems have been damaging. Currently Hatteras Island remains in a state of emergency with all land access cut off and emergency ferry service the only option on or off the island. Also, before the system was named, it was a significant high wind event on the OBX with many gusts 50-60 mph recorded during a multi-day stretch.

100% I commend your effort, but we've had this discussion before and the handful of people in here who need to hear that again I don't think are on a cognitive level capable of understanding it. And before you come for my head, yes that makes me sound incredibly conceited, but the few of you I am talking about (and you know who you are) have given me absolutely no objective evidence to the contrary.

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus: —————— In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7: ————— In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

More oranges and reds up here than green.

The northern part of “The County” is a very special place.

Yes. Looks like 2028 is the proposed start year.

The Nantucket buoy 44008, has been verifying tropical storm force winds for almost 48 hours straight. And as far as impacts, the outter banks have taken an absolute beating as expected. .

Strong/super Ninos: 1877–1878: 43.4" 1965-66: 15.4" 1972-73: 45.0" 1982–1983: 20.0" 1991–1992: 43.5" 1997–1998: 23.4" 2015–2016: 35.3" 2023-24: 23.5" I expect below avg snow. I disagree about "background state of losing snow in recent years". Due to the snowy 2000s & 2010s, the current 1991-2020 yr avg snow is highest its ever been (45"). The longterm avg is 41". The dip in the 2020s is not at all unexpected. Look at the ebbs and flows since 1880. My comment was moreso aimed at those expecting no snow in northern locations. An absolute joke void of any meteorological reasoning. Last winter was a severe winter due to the cold/snowpack, with suppression being the problem why we didnt have above avg snow. If im throwing out a number for 2026-27, im guessing 30"-ish. The biggest wild card will be a big storm. Should be some big nino storms. They often hit the east coast, but have also hit us (1878, 1992). 2015-2016 had multiple big storms just north of Detroit.

At our rad pit microclimate we've had September frosts 25 of 29 years. The others came in October. When we lived in Fort Kent we had a frost on July 31, 1978 - wounded our pumpkins and killed the neighbor's beans. That August we had a hard freeze at 28.