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  2. SUNYGRAD
    I echo that-
  3. Damage In Tolland
    Severe chances next week
  4. katabatic
    Stiff breeze, upslope rain showers and 39 degrees. Gotta be some flakes up on the ridges as its below freezing at Spruce Knob.
  5. bluewave
    Yeah, we had the split forcing in the 2023-2024 El Niño with the record warm pool near the Dateline and another center off of Mexico like we are currently seeing. The 1997-1998 El Niño had very east based forcing since Nino 4 was so much cooler. 2023-2024 was more of a full basin event rather than an east based one like 1997-1998.
  6. weatherCCB
    0.54” here
  7. dendrite
    Really hope this rain train sets up over the coop. I want water pouring out of the hillside and my road to wash out.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO vs PNA VP
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else.
  10. jbenedet
    54/50 Dews up — landscape flowered up and plenty of deep greens. Noice.
  11. bluewave
    While the NAM often had unrealistic precipitation amounts especially since it wasn’t upgraded in almost 10 years, it did do much better than other models with the warm nose at 700mb to 800mb and snow to mix precipitation timing. So we may just have to compensate for this by manually speeding up the snow to mix precipitation timing in situations which the other models are too weak with the 700-800 MB WAA. The other story is that the SPC HREF was one of the best models showing snow banding and extreme heavy precipitation amounts. It did very well with the late February KU and several flash flooding events over the years.
  12. BlizzardNole
    But I brought the Germantown rain hole down here with me. Just 0.21 here
  13. H2O
    .72” and about the same weekly total as you. The ground might not be as hard and crunchy for the next couple days. It’s been so dry in our area
  14. jbenedet
    Beautiful mid spring morning walk with the dog—even some sun in the eastern sky
  15. snowman19
    Confidence growing in another massive WWB and DWKW. Also, good point about the extreme +PMM causing a secondary area of forcing
  16. bluewave
    I like focusing on where the +30C warm pools are. Since the actual forcing driving our sensible weather follows those areas. The current forecast is for split forcing centers near the Dateline and off of Mexico in late May.That Dateline forcing is closer to near record Nino 4 and MJO 7 and the forcing further east is with the record +PMM.
  17. GATECH
    .76 last night, 1.24 for the week! Most precip in a week probably since snowcrete for here!
  18. Today
  19. dendrite
    46.9° Pouring
  20. mahantango#1
    My rain rate was 2.03in. hr. during the thunderstorm last night. It's been awhile since I think last July that my rain rate was that high.
  21. jm1220
    Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here.
  22. nj2va
    Picked up 0.6” yesterday, loved the ol’ fashioned thunderstorm at night. Going with a bold prediction that this is the start of the ‘un-droughting’ of the region.
  23. dailylurker
    It rained pretty heavily several times overnight. Definitely a lot more than I expected. I'm getting one last heavy downpour as I type. Great news!
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice 3 day run of -SOI 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 -5.50 0.32 12 May 2026 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78
  26. Stormchaserchuck1
    Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower?
  27. pawatch
    What a storm last night. Radar looked impressive! Lightning was crazy , been awhile since I seen so much lightning. straight down strikes, across the sky lightning, circling lightning precipitation was sporadic. .39” to nothing less than a mile away. Currently 45 degrees edit: got up at 2:00am pbreak solid fog, got up at 5:00am no fog at all.
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