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Well you are right, cyclogenesis is complicated by nature. But when the stakes are high, it makes it seem more complicated then it is. If that makes sense.

Comparing it to December 1992 or Sandy is utter BS though. No reason to compare it to the GOAT of noreasters though. Why do they use these silly crooked numbers? Is it because of archaic and antiquated knots? Either switch to the metric system or use actual miles. Same goes for the Saffir Simpson scale since advisories are issued in 5 mph increments anyway why is a tropical storm 39 mph and a hurricane 74 mph and some of those category thresholds are messed up too. Then you dont remember December 1992 that was the Michael Jordan of noreasters and we'll never see anything like that ever again. Three days of heavy rain hurricane force winds and parts of all five boroughs and coastal new Jersey under water and people trapped in Manhattan skyscrapers. In some ways it was worse than Sandy and was definitely worse than the March 1993 superstorm. Three feet of snow away from the coast too.

3.42 for me. Very similar to @Ernest T Bass .

That’s awful

I must commend you on your model posting. You have a good feel for what to post and when to post it. Never an overload of 47 different models and past runs. You rarely leave folks hanging with "wow the 18z" and don't post it. Job well done. Saves me from having to get off my fat ass and clicking buttons. Appreciated!

There’s always a ton going on….I swear we say this with every single coastal. But ok.

That is why they made that huge bridge to go around Salvo.

Heck yeah! Been a great week with rainfall.

is there a map?

Well in this case there’s a ton going on. System with tropical characteristics within and upper level low.

Lately, when isn’t a coastal tough to resolve?

Looks beast

hopefully by 12z tomorrow we know

This is tough to resolve on guidance.

Agree Euro AI is insane. Lots of rain.

Looks like less tropical characteristics on euro

NC12 is closed in the typical problem area on Hatteras. Fox Weather was showing the road actually buckled from the waves/wash over.

18z Euro further north and a bit weaker this run

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988.

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives

Euro AI has 0.5” to DC. Basically all day Sunday.