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Clippers are still better than rainers.

If its not going to snow no sense in freezing. I'll gladly take upper 40s. My pseg bill was over $500 this month

12 is so much better than 2 or 4. Now there are a lot more programs that are in the game, and one bad game doesn’t necessarily destroy a season. People are always going to argue on the fringes but I’d much rather have an undeserving #12 kick out 13 over an undeserving #4 kicking out 5. The season is a little long though. With bowl games mattering less than ever, might as well play the playoffs in December and wrap up very early in January with the title game. January 19th is ridiculous. -4.3/-8.5 Man cold out here.

Good point GaWx but we started to see signs of a developing -NAO which eventually merged with that funky GOA ridge. The 12 Z EPS Ensemble mean gave me little hope but doesn’t jive with American or Canadian. Does anyone know how La Niña is faring? We something to change soon so that mid month to February can be salvaged.

Meanwhile, beer freezing cold by the fire pit tonight.

Yeah I cant think of a single snowstorm that occurred after mid Feb.

Yeah, we go lucky. It wasn’t even modeled like that. my point basically is, I’m tired of shoveling, driving through mounds of road slat, having to salt my driveway, tracking it all over the house etc, when I can still see blades of grass through the snow. Its enjoyable on Nov 15, not Jan

Yes, I had about 230"imby last year, then a massive ice storm that decimated my property and left me without power for 12 straight days. Now our electric bill has gone up almsot 100 a month espcially since we were denied Fema releif funding but I digress.

Snowing pretty good now

Squalls went south of me....glad. I ignored the 1/4" on the blog and in real life . Didn't touch the drive way.

Latest Srefs fwiw

Writing is on the wall. Hopefully we can get a couple nickel and dime events in February.

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2006893223499665416?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I just didn't want lure Wolfie into reiterating how enjoyable it was for him.

GEFS trends from 0z to 18z. Pretty big moves.

Umm...what did I miss here?

Indeed - technically out here in Chesco our average snowfall is 35" so in 66% of these seasons we finished with above normal snowfall....so the trend is your friend!!

Like nearly everything that occurs in the atmosphere, what causes a block is complex and there isnt a singe cause. Google this- "what causes an atmospheric block" I think it will help you get a better understanding.

I was just preemptively covering myself.

I guess I probably should have covered the fact too, that supposedly our friend bubbler left for a multitude of reasons. So just stop just blaming yourself.

Today was nice with the squalls. However, moving forward, powderfreak can have the 2-3” events, they are just a nuisance at this point. Sick of the salt

Hmmm, I didn’t realize January was over on the first day of the month. Good to know. I guess we’re on to February on 1/1.

The 12z EPS and GEPS have this as well. AI models can be sketchy for sure - completely unknown. I am not sure they are actually "learning.". I like the EURO AIFS better than the AIGFS(seems not overly rigorous) FWIW. The 18z GEFS continues to trend the rest of the other ensembles w/ the eastern trough. The good thing is the EPO ridge moving into position is almost 7 days out. I will feel a lot more confident once it sets up shop. The NAO has verified as pretty strong...so good sign modeling is handling blocking well. We have definitely tracked patterns which fizzle. Let's hope this isn't one of them. We have also tracked many patterns which eventually verify. Good info on the ENSO and PDO regions - thank you!

Maybe google atmospheric block- there are several types. A NAO block is a Rex- poleward ridge/ equatorward trough. It forces the flow to buckle southward and that places the baroclinic boundary further south- meaning storms develop/ take a more southward track.

Yes, but what I did not understand is that the blockage is not a simple consequence of the existence of the the geopotential height anomalies, but rather some additional factor which causes the patter to remain stationary.