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This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory

Im not so sure it’s against Mt. Holly, I think we are all just hedging and mentally preparing for the low-end snow totals to verify and recent climo and short-range models suggest the warm nose will not be denied.

If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm.

Weenies gonna weenie. Tomorrow gonna be an awesome winter storm let’s just enjoy it!

Yeah noticed that. Hangs back a band through here on Monday after ramping up QPF for the thump. That's how we'd do 18"

Would have been helpful to know 24 hours ago could have gotten things like candles etc. for when we lose power

pretty sure start time wasn't till late evening

Boston Jax?

That GFS is pure nudity.

It is. Just shorter duration for some.

So ...question for ..I don't know whom. These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics. But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ? In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output?

So Canadians just didn't run for some reason? Did I miss the discussion on that? Dissemination issues?

When I woke up to find the last 4 pages mainly comprised of posts by primshine, dryslot, dendrite and mpm, I knew the North trend had continued

Nowcasting and obs out west will be telling. 22 would be insane.

That said gfs is a massive thump

True it's not all bad, just dissapointing given the expectations but also the writing has kind of been on the wall for a few days now. The sleet will at least keep the snow from going anywhere for a long time.

We've started reporting them to Parrilla to increase his data sets. We sometimes put them on the report and also started an IG account mtmansfield_snowobservations where we only post photos of the readings as a way to archive them. We have been taking photos of the readings and keeping data for over a decade and honestly, its a shame we didn't start archiving it more in the past. We are just looking to keep things transparent and to preserve the idea of measuring snowfall and depth in the same locations as often as possible. Regarding High Road depth... this is the first season I've seen that site stay with the fabled stake and even slightly exceed it at times. In all other seasons, that spot can run even a foot or two below the stake. However, we have done snow survey analysis there with the 60" Adirondack Snow Sampler (when the snowpack was a bit lower) and the numbers checked out. It appears to be legit. I have a few hypothesis, primarily going back to the November upslope snows that really built the base up... and that is that the Gondola terrain for whatever reason seemed noticeably deeper than the Quad side after a few of those storms. It has generally felt a lot snowier from like the FourRunner Quad northward towards the Notch, and I think that's normal, but it has felt exaggerated at times this year. Its definitely interesting, but man, there is still some areas of open water in there and that whole High Road zone from Rim Rock across to Cliff Trail and Perry just has a ton of snow on the ground. When you see the open water spots, its a legit like 6 feet down. Its sort of creepy at times, ha. We were skiing the Strawberry Fields below Upper Perry/Cliff intersection and there's a drainage in there with holes that look like they are 8 feet deep wells. It's impressive but certainly not something you want to fall into head first.

There is no 34 degree rain on the gfs for anyone in MD west of the bay. The gfs on TT might be depicting rain via color but surface temps are in the 20s.

We Baltimorians have every right to be cantankerous more than anybody else in this sub. We have had it the absolute worst--never in our history have we gone 10 years without recording 6" or more. (BWI doesn't count btw as both times more fell there than in the city itself).

12 to 16 on GFS for Harrisburg, York & Lancaster reporting stations this run. GFS is mostly noise level changes.

It could also be worse. Poor guys on the east coast are now sweating mixing issues that will significantly cut down on their originally projected big dog numbers.

Snowy

Goodness the QPF uptick Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Horrible trends for us today. One more bump and its sleets to Boston (a possibility at this point). Bad mood so... . Tomorrow disappointment 4 to 8 and a lot of sleet. Cold and dry for 7 days. Warm up and rain from a coastal hugger with a stale airmass. SSWE fails and everyone blames GW and says in 1900 we would have had 150 inches in the same setup.

Thermals look pretty steady