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I don't really do hype. I know the winter weight which Dec 2009 carries. The CPC has been using it to balance out their analog package for a few days. I doubt the entire winter matches this analog, but December(at least the first 2-3 weeks of it) looks like a decent match when compared to ensembles and some LR ext modeling. Kind of uncanny. Two different models with similar outcomes in regards to analog matches.

Side note don’t ride a bike in the rain, it won’t end well for your backside

Don’t worry guys the high reflectivity over Cville is not mixed snow but instead just melting snow aloft and heavy rain at the ground.

meh. I find that hard to believe given the coupled SSW and MJO progression. should get quite favorable after the 10th, not the other way around

Dumping cold over Texas instead of spreading East? We break this curse eventually right?

12z CMC ensemble when compared to the surface temp map of Dec 2009.

How far north is the "Northern Crew?"

https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989372780652237091?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw https://www.twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/1989823502162301098?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

It's rare farther north, too. Using the (late lamented) Farmington Maine co-op, with 129 winters from 1893-94 thru 2021-22, only 4 times did all 4 "snow months" exceed the average, 1922-23, 1962-63, 1968-69 (their top winter with 164") and 2007-08. Only the 2 earliest had 20"+ in all 4 months. (The DJFM averages, rounded to the inch, are 18/21/21/16. Avg winter 89.6".)

Big changes in EPS. We take.

Some fun stuff. 2009 has been showing up on the CPC analogs for a few days now. So, I thought I would look at the Euro Weeklies and the 2009 500 map. I centered the Euro Weeklies map on d10-40. If I go five more days, the BN mean shifts eastward more. Some differences, but a decent fit overall. We know what happened after Dec 2009. I threw in the GEFS MJO for good measure.

man, if it were only 5-10 degrees colder

He's trolling.

Do we come here to discuss the Black Friday snowstorm? .

That is who I hope for. That man has won no matter the league or division he has been to. His former players speak highly of him. The other thing is the jmu athletic director has to be a hot commodity Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Paul Roundy actually expected this cold shot at the start of December based on his tropical low frequency forcing plots. He’s been saying for weeks that the SE ridge would be at its weakest in early December then get stronger post 12/10

The models are simply overdoing the warmth expect more cold dominating over the warmth.

Ok, you all made me break down and look at the MJO. I really hate looking at that metric. LOL. Well, on pretty much every model it crawls into 7(sometimes 8), loops, dawdles, and stalls. 7 is cold when centered on NDJ. 8 is colder. It certainly looks like, as John and Boone and others have noted, that LR ext modeling is being driven quite early by the MJO. That probably is a good thing considering the MJO is in prime real estate by the end of the month. When it actually arrives into 7-8 is open for discussion. Nearly every model gets there w/ the BOMM and EMON being optimal. It just doesn't want to leave the left side of the MJO plot.

Wasn't 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 like a wire-to-wire winter?

I tend to agree but I do think there are a few names beyond just those two who would be worthy. In particular, keep an eye out for Bob Chesney. The guy has chops. I'm friends with a few guys in the local coaching circles and to say Bob Chesney is highly regarded in the coaching world would be the understatement of the year. The man has won everywhere he's been. Plus he's young and a PA guy. Cignetti took a lot of JMU's best players with him to Indiana and Chesney has them rolling right along. Only issue is he may get scooped by someone else, hearing UCLA has real interest in him. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out. I totally agree about taking care of Terry, love that guy.

For DFW, aside from shattering today's record high of 83*F, if the low of 72*F holds it will break the previous record high minimum of 70*F. The record high of 87*F was also tied yesterday.

I would bank on this. Confluence has been superior more often that not the last several years across southeast Canada.

Think it was 92-93. They had to close the bridges in the NYC area to break off the ice as someone had been killed by a falling piece off the superstructure of one of them.

Two years ago I asked several times about the earth adjusting on its axis and was ridiculed. Now that its confirmed to be almost 3’ I wonder if we have any idea about any effect? Presumably it’s so minuscule but do we actually know that? I mean we are told the planet is so fragile due to the 4.5% of it that is populated so could even .0001% of a change in the sun angle be of any importance? Thanks

KMPV is -1.8° just over half way through the month.