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Glad to see Sterling and I are on the same wavelength: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Statistically speaking, most Miller A storms are coastal scrapers or total misses. The only recent exception I can think of was 2/1/21.

Arctic front moving through kiss the warm air goodbye lol.

Looks like a Jan 2018 redux shifted 25 miles east. I would take it - probably best 7” I ever had with the extreme winds.

ICON looking better to anyone at 78?

Fisher lol

we need this storm to dig a little more to the sw to get in on a big snowstorm

All coated up here with trucks back out.

The orientation of the trough coming down from SE Canada continues to trend more and more NW to SE as opposed to E to W as it lowers in the Upper Midwest. I think this is being caused by a lobe in SE canada but cant confirm. Its on the EC and not GFS as shown below EC-AIFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits AIGFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

we need this to dig a little further sw to become a bigger snow for everyone in NC

My “zone area forecast” for Orange County from NWS has potential snow chances starting at 1p Friday afternoon, then 50% chance Friday night. Seems they might be thinking an earlier start.

That was a massive blue ball. IIRC it was a sub 960mb behemoth east of benchmark, which got the outer cape/ACK into warning criteria

It needs to feel the fear. .

may be hopium, but I remember bluewave posting a year or so ago a 3-run animation of the Euro that had a 2021 (or 2022? can't remember) storm 1000 miles OTS in one run, and then a NYC bullseye hit 2 runs later.

Looked like on the Euro there was a kicker vort dropping through central Canada into the Dakotas knocking things east off the east coast. Now not sure but I wonder if the gfs picks up on northern stream vorts better? Friday 12z gfs had a 977 mb low east of New Jersey so maybe it was onto something then and it’s bringing back. We shall see but the Euro had it fir a few runs too especially 0z Sunday into Monday.

GSP is taking this potential storm seriously with their point forecasts this far out. I clicked on Davie Co. Friday NightA 50 percent chance of snow after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. SaturdayA 40 percent chance of snow before 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. I highlighted the heavy snow

Gross

You should have enough evidence by tomorrow afternoon. If it appears a dangerous storm at hand, cancel the trip. Your daughter should understand. If she doesn't, don't make her problem your whole family's problem.

Agreed! That is pretty positive at this point.

Getting some light snow

A snowbow?

Roads are still pretty brutal here (although markedly better now than early this morning) so makes sense. Surprised they called Thursday so soon tbh

Harford County schools closed on Wednesday.

You can leave it ….There’s no year in the title. As always …..

There's a few flakes flying out here. I'm out at the Animal Hospital of Rye in Blizzard's neck of the woods.