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Woo snow

Goofus actually has another somewhat strong s/w behind the main one. Maybe acting a bit as a kicker to speed it up?

The euro and Canadian are interesting here. It’s close. Obviously if anything close to the gfs verifies we are cooked, but could see some accumulation here depending on which model is right

Good visual, thanks. And this is what we see most times, when we follow a potential from a week out…something always shows up as we close in(a scooter shit streak, another little piece of energy, etc…) to change the scenario just enough, that wasn’t seen from afar. It’s to be expected when following something that is far out in time.

GFS has been quick to take that s/w and push it further north over upper Midwest while euro is a bit slower and has s/w further south.

Rates will matter for sure where it’s borderline.

Upton AFD: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Points: * Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with rain/snow line somewhere over the interior. * Below normal temperatures through next Friday. NBM closely followed during this timeframe. The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper, and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals. What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal low to impact the region. The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40- 70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively. High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

Kinda need a deep system to get the rates. More of a thread the needle situation, but still super early here to expect anything.

If the euro is right, I could see one of those deals where Brett maybe flips to some paste while it struggles here. Simply from being away from the warmer water. I don’t expect much of anything here, I was hoping maybe some tail end stuff. That 95 corridor in interior SE MA looks interesting.

0.5” here in Lake Forest. About as expected thus far!

Here’s what I was eyeing from the 6z run out west

Concerning messaging coming from Northern Indiana Office. They almost lost half their WSW... At this time have made only minor adjustments to forecasted snow amounts through tonight, with just a slightly lower trend in most places. Highest accumulations of 6 to 10 inches through 12Z Sunday are still forecasted for northwest third of the area where some cross- hair signature of mid level lift/DGZ is noted in forecast time/height sections. Some consideration given to transitioning the warning to an advisory south of US Route 24 across far northeast Indiana/northwest Ohio but will allow dayshift to assess trends this morning.

Thanks for putting my earlier comment into a more detailed response.

If the flatter scenario plays out…that would probably play out colder there…no?

As of 7 am, Chicago had picked up 0.5" of snow. Rockford had received 1.0". The highest amounts were at Chatsworth (3.0") and Melvin (2.0").

It’s funny how different the depiction is for our s/w with each run. But when you don’t have a real coherent one and a few weaker pieces comprising the trough, that will happen.

I was expecting to wake up to more. Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Both GSO and RDU got down to 21 this morning.

As some said, wish this was a month later. Looks like heavy rain here, but maybe we can go isothermal for an hour or two to get the ground whitened

GFS has not performed well. I feel it’s been too amplified.

WB 6Z RDPS says get the skates ready...

The s/w starts coming ashore around 12z. I think it’ll be more into the RAOB network for the 00z runs…if you’re into believing in that sorta thing in this day and age in weather modeling. Anyway, that s/w has been digging into the SW and over the 4 corners region before coming out into the midwest. Over the last day or so there’s been another weaker northern piece that has been working in over the midwest. On most runs they’ve been lockstep and the system has been able to amplify some as it reaches our region. They seem a little more disjointed on the 6z euro…either it’s getting out ahead of the main s/w or the main one is lagging behind a bit. Either way it seems to be flattening the flow and not allowing the main s/w to amplify much and the whole thing remains more positively tilted as it reaches us. The end result is a much weaker/south system. Here’s the last 4 runs of H5 from the euro valid 3z Wed.

My worry is the GFS being so consistent, Generally it’s a bad model but everytime it sniffs something out first ( this storm) and then never loses it.. it seems that everything ultimately caves to it. Just would like to see it come SE starting today

I wonder how modeling is handling the NAO flip. How much feedback is there. Shunting storm further S.

In my dreams I envision a 12/6/96. @ORH_wxman