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I know most of you will enjoy it, but I wonder if what we're seeing will be the general theme of the entire summer. In my highly uneducated theory, the pattern that developes in May seems to carry through most of the summer season. Just as you guys like your winters to be winters, with cold and snow, I like my summers to be actual summers, with generally warm to hot days, broken up by occasional late day thunderstorms.

Could be the best Noreaster of 2025 this week. While the Euro may be overdone on the intensity, the gradient should be tight enough for easterly gusts over 40 and very rough surf and wind driven heavy rain potential. It’s possible that with the low clouds and easterly flow, that some spots may not get out of the 40s for afternoon highs. This is impressive cold for late May when the average daily high is 73°.

They won’t be right.

It followed the record breaking super El Niño of 15-16. The only reason the La Niña developed was because of the very strong -IOD that formed in the summer and fall or it would have been a 2nd year El Niño. That Nino was so strong that it completely altered the normal QBO progression, instead of progressing to a -QBO, which should have happened, it flipped right back to a +QBO that fall/winter

GEFS and Gfs farther SE with low track this week. Hope they right

17/7/4

Yeah, I don't recall any blizzards in 16-17. That one was a very low snowfall season, especially south of Philly. If I remember correctly, places like Baltimore and DC got like 3 inches of snow, putting it on par with low snowfall years like 11-12 and 12-13.

I’m still getting rain draining through the bird poop in my gauge. Up to 0.95”

I don’t know the answer but this spring has been really bad for me, but yesterday was off the charts. I’m scraping crud from my eyes as I type this.

My son has allergies but yesterday was particularly bad and he woke up at 4am coughing and wheezing a little. I don’t have much but even I was sneezing a bunch yesterday. @Ian commented on it on Bluesky even. Anyone know what the allergen may be?? From Ian: “I was sneezing a lot today and my eyes were bothering me and I don’t have a ton of allergies usually. Something on the post front wind? https://www.reddit.com/r/washingtondc/s/h286pnEiqI “

That’s fine. But the people complaining have been in NH and everyone S of the Pike is trying to tell us it’s been warm and nice. lol

Maybe in NNE but down here it's been an exceptionally warm month both for highs and mins. DXR is+7.4...

Euro says enjoy the ULLs MDW.

It’s been warm, but again it’s heavily biased on the mins…especially up here. The local coop is +2 on the highs and +9 on the mins. Precip and clouds have been AN up here as well. This time of year, perception changes based on sunshine. A 58/32 sunny day is more appealing than 65/45 and clouds/rain.

The research shows that +QBO in combination with -ENSO supports poleward Aleutian ridging and a cold stratosphere during the cold months. On the opposite side, -QBO/-ENSO supports a flat/equatorial Aleutian ridge and a warm stratosphere during the cold months

WPC noted changes with placement of the low. Noteable reduction of rainfall with latest forecast. Still early though

First Clematis blooms. One of my favorite flowers.

+5.9 for HVN and my central air has been running hard this week and month.

I think 17-18 was a lot more fun than 16-17.

using that info, it makes sense why we had we had a pattern of cold/dry wet/mild alternating with each other.

I find it ironic he stated that snowfall has dropped since 1989-90 when the late 80s and early 90s were historically horrible for snowfall here!

I think we'll start warming up around the turn of the month.

Looks like Memorial Day weekend will be salvaged and beyond that, the heat out west in the Rockies will shift east for early June?

like 2011?

Because of a retrograding -NAO. But again, the NAO is not sustaining for more than a few days, and is rapidly going back and forth between positive and negative phases. bluewave was right in that observation. Longer term it should warm up around the beginning of June.