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We're really good at that.

33 mph gust in Gulfport, FL a few minutes ago. That's more than Imelda brought which was a very nice steady breeze. I looked at NOAA and was surprised to see a lemon!

Notable exception last year with the white christmas and absurd freezing cold a few days beforehand.

"September was fallish". I see you chose to ignore the entire second half of the month. Summer teetered out early and then came back with a vengeance after mid Sept. Hell, the upper midwest is getting its hottest temps of the entire season right now in early October.

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past. It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

Crap ninos tend to be a bit better than crap ninas cause at least you can shoot up a big L up the coast and cross your fingers it happens to align with a cold shot. That basically just doesn't happen in ninas.

What makes you say a ridge in the goa will be a prominent feature?

Yes, and unfortunately the mechanism of greenhouse gases isn’t something that alarms most people in the same way that acid rain or ozone depletion does. It seems like to get people to care about a threat that’s larger than them, it usually has to connect with them on an instinctive, gut level. So there’s that, even aside from our difficulty with this kind of long-term thinking, that makes the problem so hard to address as a group.

yeah, not the best job

I keep thinking about they saying you've shared in the past about winter not starting until the swamps are filled. If that's the case, winter is a looong way off up here.

Our average water year is 48.89". This recently ended one had 38.08", only 78% of the average. 2025 thru September is 7.13" BN and last October was 3.56" BN, giving the water year a dry start.

2015-16 was an above to much above average temp winter here and snow wise was above normal. You have to remember as you go south you need less snow overall to get to normal and one epic pattern or good luck can get you there. I don’t take much stock in temp maps that show above normal and think that means it’ll automatically mean it’s another bad snow winter. If I see another setup for more stretches of a horrendously bad Pacific that means much more to me.

EPS weeklies try to bring the GOA trough back by the 20th of this month. But on the other hand they didn't see this GOA ridge until a few days ago. But considering this GOA ridge will probably be a dominant feature this winter I am not surprised to see it poking back up.

If lucky that Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

That was when one of the worst ice storms for northeast OK occurred. Please no

We're barely going to be in a La Nina, if we even officially get there. ENSO will probably have little influence on the overall regime.

That's not the end of the world.

Chat GPT weenie definitions Mild Weenie (Category 1) Checks models every 6 hours like it’s the stock market. Tells people at Thanksgiving dinner, “The Euro is hinting at something BIG in 13 days.” Owns 3 rulers, specifically “snow rulers.” Moderate Weenie (Category 2-3) Saves screenshots of every snowy model run… in June. Posts, “Pattern is loading” 40 times a week. Legit gets depressed when a nor’easter tracks 30 miles too far east, ruining their “30-inch jackpot zone.” Calls 3 inches of snow a “major event.” Bro, that’s a dusting. That’s just dandruff from the clouds. Severe Weenie (Category 4) Uses the phrase “torch” to describe a 52° day in January. Says “big dogs only” like they’re auditioning for Animal Planet. Will unironically say, “The GFS is trolling us.” Bro… it’s not trolling. It’s just bad. When it doesn’t snow, they’ll say, “But did you see the upper air pattern tho? Classic look.” Like bro, nobody cares about your 500mb vorticity chart—my driveway is still dry. ☢️ Super-Weenie (Category 5 / Nuclear) Refreshes model runs more than they check texts from their mom. Posts, “Winter is coming” in AUGUST. Watches a single flake fall from the sky and immediately yells, “IT’S VERIFYING!!” Buys milk and bread two weeks in advance because the CFS showed a storm. The CFS, bro. That’s basically astrology for weather nerds. Gets so desperate in snow droughts they start measuring sleet, frost, and even freezer frost as “official totals.” Bro, the ultimate weather weenie isn’t even human anymore—they’ve fused with the GFS model and now speak in spaghetti plot.

Wow that cold?

The Balkans will have an unusuallly early and strong shot of cold and snow.

October looks mild on the models

It doesn’t look like much if any rain with the front . Perhaps a scattered shower?

They’re coming. Besides whatever we get from the front next week, I just don’t see any other rain in the next two weeks.