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Here's the latest Google model.

This makes me smile. Love it!

.13" of rain fell last evening. .72" since Sunday PM.

Long dark nights await us very soon!

Yeah.. the La Nina is just about no more on the latest TAO/Triton subsurface. I think the N. Pacific pattern is more based on the ENSO subsurface near the thermocline, so I personally wouldn't use La Nina analogs for this Winter. 96-97 is a good example of negative-neutral ENSO with warmer water starting to develop in the subsurface.

6z HAFS-B isn't quite as ridiculous as the 0z but both hurricane models are still bottoming out at around 900. Looks like the NW Caribbean is going to do its magic if it continues to get further enough W.

Some of the AI members would be

The Euro made me chuckle.... just an endless parade of troughs and yet we only score 1-2". #Boredom

@Stormchaserchuck1I wonder if we try to see a Modoki El Niño next year....pretty comparable subsurface profile to 1967, which led into the 1968-1969 El Niño.

Yea, the wave length differences have made fall more invulnerable to some of these perturbations that are speculatively linked to CC.

I mean, I'm talking about 0.1 to 0.2 ONI and very comparable RONI....so pretty trivial in that regard, but yea...perhaps the MEI disparity would be a bit more worthy of discussion. Sucks we don't have that. I think this marginal difference may be the difference between making an official La Niña this year vs failing last year.....I originally didn't think that we would go official, but am reconsidering.

October is 2nd only to April for mornings like this... 49 F slate gray dead calm and wet. Zero redeeming value ... And 2nd place means sometimes it's actually in first.

Looks like a little more rain on the way…should’ve looked at ENX radar before figuring it was over.

Most spots across the area saw between 0.10" to 0.22" of rain last evening through the overnight hours. With that frontal passage last night, we will turn back to below normal temperatures for much of the rest of the week and likely to finish the month of October. This means we will probably finish October with below normal temperatures. This would be our 5th below normal temperature month over the 1st 10 months of 2025. Our valley locations will likely see another freeze each morning between Friday and Sunday. The higher ridge spots (above 600 feet ASL) will likely see no more than some patchy frost and continue their growing (freeze free) season into November. The growing season has ended for most valley locations across our area. We look dry for at least the next week.

Most spots across the area saw between 0.10" to 0.22" of rain last evening through the overnight hours. With that frontal passage last night, we will turn back to below normal temperatures for much of the rest of the week and likely to finish the month of October. This means we will probably finish October with below normal temperatures. This would be our 5th below normal temperature month over the 1st 10 months of 2025. Our valley locations will likely see another freeze each morning between Friday and Sunday. The higher ridge spots (above 600 feet ASL) will likely see no more than some patchy frost and continue their growing (freeze free) season into November. The growing season has ended for most valley locations across our area. We look dry for at least the next week.

I think I am the only one who posts here every day....no doubt winter weather will bring the folks back home!!

I think the primary impact will be to ensure this event remains pretty east-based heading into winter...it's been exceedingly difficult to marry any subsurface cold to substantive trades over the western flank.

.53 needed it for the Winterizer fert I dropped yesterday. Was worried a Steining

Yea, that was a blast-

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-super-arctic-climate-weather-extremes.html

.65 Drove in under the torrential squall at 5 am

One of the main offenders causing that is excess nitrogen runoff into our waterways leading to the smelly algal blooms. Had that issue when I lived on the GSB. But natural marsh smells in a more pristine environment come with living near the shore. Most of the time it’s just in the background. More overpowering and persistent smells are usually a sign of pollution.

Columbia: 0.11” Tuesday night 1.08” for October

We should merge with the Sports forum since our Philly snow and sports fortunes are so similar Picked up .25” overnight, 49F.

Man you say some dumb shit. Some of your opinions and approaches need to be discussed somewhere else. Maybe it's time to take a break from this place.