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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
mahantango#1 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
45 was the low. -
My thermometer is 20 feet up, I bet I could have squeezed out a few more tenths if I had it at 2 meters.
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First 40s here, 49.6 degrees. LGA low was 57 degrees hahaha
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's incredible how many people are incapable of nuanced thought...it has to be one extreme or the other. Either CC doesn't exist/won't impact winter, or "snowy seasons are a thing of the past". Either side loses credibility instantly with me. Jesus...accept the fact that CC is real and is impacting our wintrers, but it can still snow...both are true. I should focus my practice on Dialectical Behavioral Therapy for weather folks...I'd make a killing. -
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2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The CANSIPS would be a good winter for the NE....period. -
Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
canderson replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone. You count on it, rely on it to buffer the passage of time, to keep the memory of sunshine and high skies alive, and then just when the days are all twilight, when you need it most, it stops.” - A. Bartlett Giamatti In weather need, 48 was my low. Have to fly to NOLA tomorrow and Sunday looks potentially like a few inches if rain there. -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
Go Kart Mozart replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Groton. The icebox of CT. -
46 here, chilliest of the season so far.
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's not likely to happen for decades. Even if Baltimore sees no snow from winter 2025-26 through 2039-40 (virtually certain not to be the case), the 30-season moving average would be 7.2" vs. the current 18.9" through 2024-2025. Through at least mid-century, there will likely be some snowy winters even as the long-term snowfall average generally declines. Although Washington, DC has likely transitioned into a lower snowfall regime and Baltimore to NYC are likely in the early stages of such a transition, the idea that snowy winters are a thing of the past is not likely to hold true through at least mid-century, if not longer. Such winters will likely grow less frequent as warming continues, but they won't disappear altogether. That outcome might not occur until global temperatures are 3°C above pre-industrial levels, which appears likely in the vicinity of 2100 (maybe a little earlier if some of the positive feedbacks e.g., Arctic cloud changes, etc. lead to a further acceleration in warming). The transition for Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City will likely be noisier (bigger rise, greater volatility) and perhaps a bit more extended e.g.. to 37.5° mean winter temperatures than it was for Washington, DC due to their closer proximity to cold source regions. -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Midweek looks meh for rain. -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I don’t see a good dousing for awhile. -
Chilly morning
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Thank you for the exaplanation, I've been out of the loop for awhile. I figured it must have been better than documenting squirrel activity haha
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My crappy PWS says 43.5. Closest other one says 45 which is probably more reasonable.
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At 6am, 31F air, 31F dewpoint. Second straight morning of 100 percent saturated air. Headed for 80F next four days, then it looks promising for a good dousing. Ahh, finally...variety!
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Mid to long range discussion- 2025
WinstonSalemArlington replied to wncsnow's topic in Southeastern States
One of my favorite types of days. Gonna light up the fireplace. -
30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged 7.8” over the last 9 seasons. We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period. This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”. Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912. Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0 1.5 0.9 T 7.8 2024-2025 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 14.9 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 8.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6 2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 2.6 5.5 6.5 2.8 T 17.4 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2 2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0 2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1 2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0 2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1 2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
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Pretty much the same crap that's going on in Mass...
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Battery costs are declining along well established cost curves. This ongoing cost decline is hammering the competitiveness of fossil fuels. Cheap batteries mean solar and wind are no longer intermittent and transportation is readily electrified. This article shows how battery-electric trucks will quickly become more cost-effective than diesel. This is being driven by China which has recognized the long-term strategic opportunity. They are electrifying their economy to reduce oil imports and sell increasing amounts of high value gear to the rest of the world. Meanwhile our leadership is in denial. Doubling down on outmoded energy technology. Going to be tough to be competitive if we are uncompetitive in energy. https://www.nature.com/articles/s44333-025-00029-5.pdf
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Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
UnitedWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Cleaned and serviced ours last weekend, and ran it for an hour this A.M. 36 degrees in Westfield this morning -
Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)
BrianW replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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Bluewave has posted about how a very cold Siberia creates a contrast with the very warm water off Japan which fuels the raging Pacific jet which we certainly DON’T want. So it’s a more complex relationship than “Siberian snow cover is always good”.