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That’s about all we can take away from this

CMC is great

Yesterday was the first day that we hadn’t reported new snow at our site in over a week, and only the third day without snowfall since back before Christmas. So indeed, it’s been quite a snowy stretch around here over the past several weeks. In typical Northern Greens style, the period without new snow abruptly ended at just one day because this morning I awoke to moderately heavy snowfall made up of large flakes in the 5-20 mm range. We picked up 2 to 3 inches of champagne snow at the house by the time it was starting to taper down, and along with much more seasonable temperatures, it got me thinking about a morning ski tour to check out the new powder. Today being a Wednesday, the Timberline Quad was running instead of the Wilderness Lift, so touring via the Wilderness Uphill Route was an obvious play. It was still snowing moderately when I arrived up in the Bolton Valley Village, and I could immediately tell that the mountain had picked up substantially more snow than we had at our house – accumulations in the Village were about double the amount we’d received in the valley. I toured in the 2,000’ to 2,700’ elevation range, and new accumulations I found as of late morning were as follows: 2,000’: 4-6” 2,500’: 6-7” 2,700’: 6-7” The only way to assess the depth of the snow from this event was to check on groomed terrain, because off piste, the unconsolidated snow is very deep and it’s a long way to the subsurface. I didn’t get up above 3,000’ today, but it didn’t look like there was much of an increase in depths above the 2,500’ level. The new powder was very dry – right around 2% H2O based on my analyses from this morning and this evening. So it skied really well, but I certainly wasn’t setting up bottomless turns or providing a resurfacing on groomed terrain – there just wasn’t enough liquid equivalent in there. Thankfully, there isn’t a huge need for a resurfacing at the moment - the quality of the subsurface out there right now is excellent because of all the snow and cold temperatures we’ve had over the past few weeks.

As opposed to no storm or a shredded mess storm.

As opposed to china? Yes agreed

What a disaster that GFS run was. 4 inches of rain next week would cause major flooding with ice jams next weekend. Thankfully it's still 10 days away and it's the GFS...

I can confirm. Still coming down steadily in Colonial Heights. Everything has a fresh coat of snow.

The only thing I take from the WB 0Z GFS is the threat of a storm somewhere along the east coast next weekend.

Canadian is remarkably similar to its 12z run.

We need to get this thing under 150 hours. We have been tracking it now forever and it’s still 10 days away

Steady light snow in Lewisville for past 30 minutes. Coating on the deck and cars. (Prior to that was some rain / sleet mix).

It's a cutter. 225 hours out on the GFS means nothing though.

The hrrr is looking interesting

It’s such a broken model. Compare it with 18z. It’s become sadly unusable like the Jma and Nogaps

So looking at the gfs. It has a s/w trod in the middle of the country. Hf and surface low right above Maine with some confluence. Let’s see how it fucks this up.

4 to 6 hours out it's ok. Not 40-48. Euro/GFS/CMC/NAM 3K at this range -in that order

Nice. The Gaspe is a bucket list trip.

The next 10 days have potential but the run to run nail biting is not the way to go. I'm just going to sit back and listen to those with greater knowledge than I and try to slowly learn a little bit more about the dynamics at 500mb. What more's a poor wx weenie to do?

We have a light dusting on the grass and roofs. There are a few places in my driveway that have turned white, but the roads are still looking uncovered. We now have some bigger flakes the largest of the night, but I do not think the roads are going to be a problem unless it does this for a few more hours.

HRRR was crap for the last front passage. Hopefully it’s right this time but not counting on it. .

Very light snow has been falling here for about 30-45 minutes... there's a thin dusting (<0.1") on some of the colder elevated surfaces. Radar has had no reflections over my house though (snow hole along I-140, just south of the "K" in Knoxville on the map)

Nope!!

Got the lightest coating on the cars here. Which is about all I expect from these very light showers passing through.

Sounds like fun Mark. Maine offers a 3 day deal(don’t have to get a full year registration). Our plan is to ride from our cabin in Cross lake/Sinclair area on Sunday the 15th, and up to River D Loupe in Quebec, and then on to do the Gaspe’ peninsula the following 3-4 days. And then back down through NB ,and back to our cabin in N. Maine. So we’ll see if that works out.

Yeah, it's going to be nothing here. The coastal low has left town.