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Long way to go, but right now I’d feel really good if I’m a weenie in NC, S half of VA. N SC 18z Euro Ai is a huge hit fyi .

Yes-and also the European model has had this GFS model for lunch for going on to winter seasons now it hasn't even been close. GFS has been woefully bad, especially outside of 72 hours.

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Interesting. I'll also add that the ridging along the West Coast is also notably different. Though that surely results in the downstream effects too of course. In the Euro AI, that ridge points more directly up the coast (more north-south) whereas the GFS has it protruding more inland toward the Pac NW and southwest Canada. I believe that the AI version with the ridge tilted as it is, allows for the main downstream trough to broaden more rather than digging so much in the east, giving the southwest trough more of a chance to turn the corner better or at least not get squashed into oblivion.

Oddball collection of images on weatherbell, but it looks like the AIFS is kicking the baja low out.

It’s too far out for this

KFS called it

Want to see a snow storm, put on the end of the Patriots game....

I’m not sure. But near the bottom was the regular Euro as it was last to trend NW with the track. It kept the snow centered near the coast for so long.

ALY radar is quite surprising. That burst of moderate to heavy over the capital district into SVT was poorly modeled

Maybe if you had some shelter when growing up you wouldn't be so jaded.

Temp crashing 29f moderate pixe dust flakes powdery snow now 1” additional and counting

0.5” official report. Hit my 0.5-2” range!

The GEFS is known for being under dispersive more so than other ensemble systems, but I think there have been improvements. To a degree all ensembles are going to tend to follow the op for a given run.. and we have many more runs to go for this potential event.

Euro AIFS has started 6:13 EST

18z GEFS for next Sunday. Strong signal folks!

I guess I should have said “Alesmith” is one of my fav. Not had this version of Speedway. The barrel aged version though—I love soooo much.

snowing moderately now 4 inches so far

Roads quickly covered again when it started back up as light snow. Dont know how thats gonna go later tonight and tomorrow morning when the temps drop, could be dicey underneath the new layer.

Good or bad runs, it doesn’t matter with this upcoming storm - the gfs can’t be valued in any depiction. It’s as useful as the hrrr at 48 hrs.

Congrats EMASS radar looks great

With how abhorrent data collection and retention is for our area, that's a huge red flag.

Normal Euro has started on Pivotal:

Snowing good now, radar looks great for this area. Pats moving on.....great night

The good news is, after tonight we will all know exactly when the Euro AIFS starts for future runs.