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  2. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  3. Terpeast
    Yes. I would personally love to run the 25-26 analog back again, even if two KUs had missed my area. Flip side, running 09-10 again might not produce a record snowfall.
  4. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably right, but you also have to leave open for the possibility that the longer range defaults towards climo.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it lags, but it leads you to the driver.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023-2024 had strong MC forcing though, which as you know is significant source of destructive interference for high latitude blocking. I don't deny that this is probably CC enhanced, and perhaps it won't end up meaning much...I'm open to that, but I don't think that we can summarily dismiss it as an artifact of CC.
  8. EasternLI
    12Z runs similar to 00Z. 98% EPS. 70% GEFS. Interesting little trend though lately on both Op runs with longer lasting reversals.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting Modoki value correct is part of what comprises an accurate ENSO forecast....you want to say EURO has been best, okay....but it's not been perfect is all I mean.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I understand that, but it's still off...doesn't matter why.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I told you why I doubted the magnitude...had nothing to do with a desire for cold.
  12. DocATL
    lol…we’re such nerds.
  13. DocATL
    I mean I enjoy fall colors and snowfall but the older I get, the more my body and mind just love warmer weather. There’s also something really satisfying about not having to use the air-conditioning or the heat.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    65-72 was -AMO, I believe.....we were in a dry pattern in the NE bc we had MC forcing for the better part of a decade. ..I would not go dry this year.
  15. GaWx
    Check this colder change from the EWs for week 2 (Nov 9-15): 1. H5 2 runs ago: Yesterday’s: Today’s: nice E US trough 2m from 2 days ago: Yesterday: cooler Today’s: even cooler Rainfall: 2 days ago: slightly wet SE Yesterday’s: a little drier Today’s: even drier with the colder air
  16. Chicago Storm
    maybe for you.
  17. Cobalt
    Exactly. The data and its results speak for themselves, for Yellow Medicine County, MN, and elsewhere.
  18. Itstrainingtime
    It looked like we were finally going to break the dry streak as early as this coming Monday. CTP has now removed all chances of rain (here) until at least next Thursday. Ouch.
  19. Intensewind002
    Here's another pic
  20. WinterWolf
    98 was an all timer for most….that gave everybody up that way their fill…an ice storm like that will hold you over for a generation or two. Quebec was absolutely devastated. Wasn’t 97-98 a Super Nino?
  21. Intensewind002
    Saw some sun dog or halo like features around the sun during the drive home today
  22. Today
  23. MJO812
    Its also weaker as time goes on .
  24. mitchnick
    Lower mean today....underwater
  25. MJO812
    So the pattern will not get colder even if its brief ? ^
  26. tamarack
    As already noted, same idea with hurricanes. Personal significant ice storms: Jan 1953 NNJ: 1-1.5", every tall tree lost limbs or snapped completely, lost power for 6 days. Dec 1970 NNJ: 0.7-0.8", took out some large branches, short power outage. Dec 1983 Fort Kent: Similar to 12/70. Jan 1998 Gardiner: 1.5"+, possibly the widest area with heavy heavy damage, outage. We lost power 4 days, phone 13 days. Other than those, none even reaching 1/2" - nothing bigger than 1/4" since '98.
  27. michsnowfreak
    Honestly, no need to do that. The ones who cancel winter every year before it begins and tout warm this and snowless that absolutely disappear in spring when its time to own up on their massive fails- they just start touting how warm the next winter will be.
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