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Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations. This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".

Plenty of 37-41s in northern CT too. Looks like your area of NE CT was the exception rather than the rule.

Are you really serious???????????????????????????????????

Overrunning events

Do you mean Patti LaBelle?

I’m one of the furthest SW posters so it made plenty of sense for my area and points southwest, the rest of NE I get it . Again was only hoping for 1-2”.

Whatever happens tomorrow night, enjoy it, LR looking kind of toasted at the moment. Alaskan pig

I told my wife that the Daytona 500 is this weekend and she said who cares (I don't watch a lot of nascar). It always meant the start of a march to spring. I leave work in the day light, tree wells get larger, snow does not last long on the roads and we can all start to worry/worship the sun angle... It was cloudy most of the day. 36 for a high. now 32.

Brief shout out to the great Arctic front 11 years ago that changed our season of futility to an epic finish. https://imgur.com/a/esKC90G

37.6 for a high in this area, clouds and a breeze most of the day and a few flurries. The vibe was overall more wintry than spring here, but the small puddles next to the snow banks dont lie as there was a small amount of melting.

Nice refresher

Shasta County in northern California will see snow accumulations from 4 to 8 FEET. Mammoth will only get glanced by this, they will see totally manageable accumulations from 2 to maybe 4 feet. I wish Shasta had cameras. It would be amusing to watch 8 feet of snow pile up. Shasta turns out to have a live cam https://www.skipark.com/winter/mountain-cams Question is does it have lights at night you can see the dendrites fall by? Because if so I just might end up liking Shasta better then Mammoth. Couple feet of snow on a western resort is so pedestrian.

We tried to tell everyone. Investing in this was futile

Zzzzz

No worries, I didn’t at all take it as any kind of criticism. I did think it was funny that I pretty much gave this storm 2-3 days up to the 48-60hr range for it to come back north and then of course it does right after I made my “it’s probably not happening” post. So now a period of steadier precip happening with this looks fairly likely, certainly from the turnpike south but perhaps as expansive as from I-80 south. Big issue now that’s happening with guidance overall is suggesting the lower column might not be cold enough. GFS has obviously been the coldest solution in that regard, but high res NAM, HRRR, Euro to a degree present that this might start as rain and possibly remain so for a majority of the event. While surface temps probably won’t be as warm as today (likely more high 30s to low 40s), there’s depth to the low level warmth in the column all the way up to about 850mb. 925mb (3000 ft) temps are progged as much as +5-6ºC prior to precip onset on most guidance. That makes a rain start pretty likely. Colder sub 0ºC air at that level eventually tries to advect in from the NE as the storm deepens as it gets off the coast. GFS does it the fastest, hence its snowier solution. Euro draws it in late, which leads to measurable snows more in eastern PA. High res guidance like the 3k NAM isn’t drawing it down in time.

Snow cover at 6" - our high so today was 46.1 our warmest in exactly 1 month since the 49.7 on January 14th. Tomorrow will be our 30th consecutive day with snow cover this will be 13th longest stretch and 20th longest streak on record since 1893.

It was interior too. Most people don’t live at 1k

You guess? What’s your point? There is no way to know whether that storm would still be snow now without knowing what the temps were DURING the snow. Not 12 hours before or after. Thats irrelevant. But oddly you know exactly what the temp was when it don’t matter but can only guess when it’s pertinent to the discussion. You think you’re clever when really it’s transparent exactly what you’re doing. Go BS somewhere else. Everyone here knows your act and it’s old tired and boring.

Hi of 32 here today and had light snow on and off most of the afternoon

Like I said other than the valley it was not like that inland. All my obs posts and living here back it up . I’m glad the valley airports were mild and sunny . This place really blows sometimes

I mean, just look at thIs from @Newman in the Philly thread. Just a tiny difference between 12z and 18z RRFS. Something must've gotten into the NOAA mesoscale products at 12z LOL

It does seem to have gotten a little crazy in here. At least from my perspective, it's been a good winter. It's been cold, it's snowed, and we've had snow pack for weeks. In East Bay RI that's a rarity, compared to other parts of New England. It will be a little disappointing if we don't get another decent storm before things wind down, but putting things in perspective, it's been the best winter in 10 years here, even if we didn't get a truly big storm between now and when spring truly arrives. As for the next few weeks there will be chances based on the ensembles, but chances are better off away from the coastal plain. Nothing new for this time of the year. As long as we have cold nearby there's chances something will work out, and thankfully Canada has been helpful with their cold exports this year compared to the last few winters.

Because someone always baits us into that AGW to shit it down. As long as no one takes the bait…

This. I’ve told you and others this before. Places south of us are not getting more snow than us. I showed you the snowfall the last 10 years in a ton of random southern cities and none have more snow than Baltimore over the last 10 years. Not one. Some had more snow one single season. Others more a different year. This is perception bias. You don’t pay attention to exactly where the storms missing to our south hit. Or the frequency. Yea New Orleans got that big snow last year. But that’s the only damn big snow they got in the last 10 years! Charlotte got one a couple weeks ago. But they’ve only had a few storms over 10 years! Same with Raleigh, Nashville, Dallas, Little Rock, find me one city south of us that actually has more snow. Do some research before you make a declarative theory or statement. Don’t go on perception. Yes we will be like Raleigh and get some southern sliders. So every 3 years we will get one damn snowstorm. But hey we will get that storm that used to go south of us. Winning!!!

Under 48 hours, nine times out of 10, once a trend starts, it usually either builds momentum or levels out. These continual all of the place rug pulls are brutal with this potential event.