All Activity

Some of us might. My mom had a few standard admonitions.

But on the real, yall really need to get it together. Yall are embarrassing. It’s one run of run model. Wait to see a trend and wait for model support. Euro isn’t the be all end all

tth.

Eps. Call bullshit on the east movement

EPS is east with the op the war is in fact on

Textbook East Coast pattern. It’s undeniable. .

Never really liked it or didn’t like it as much as the GFS?

Hopefully we get next week Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Expect 3-36" Glad we narrowed things down tn

Is this really going to be a rug pull?

For reference at six hours out...

Re: Euro : Well… But anyway, Im in a club literally like this

Very sorry JM.

At hour 48 the mean MSLP is East of 18Z run, and looks to be almost exactly where the OP LP is. Backs up the OP

Eps

Either the GFS or EURO are totally wrong. Whats weird is it starts with the difference in northern stream about 6 hours out. So strange and unprecedented to my eye.

In case anyone is wondering about a situation in which the Euro failed spectacularly in the short range. This is from 2 years ago.

They were deleted.

Look at the upper levels. A lot going on with the vorticity interplay. Subtle differences aloft impact what happens at the surface- specifically the surface low development and track. Lets look at the latest GFS, CMC , and Euro at h5-Best outcome to worst. It really comes down to the strength, timing, and the angle of the individual pieces of vorticity and how they phase, which impacts the tilt of the overall trough. One of the above looks a bit different than the other 2. Pretty subtle, but different.

Looks like 6" will do it here, Nice event, On to mid late next week.

The EURO is not what it was 6 years ago.

No rain or freezing rain during the February 1978 blizzard (except possibly right near Montauk for a bit, but I'm not sure). You might be thinking of the big January near blizzard that year which ended as a mix. Temperatures prior to the Feb 6 storm were very cold (near 0 on LI the morning of the 5th) and well below freezing except for a couple of hours late on the 6th from ISP south and east as they got involved with a coastal front and the temp rose to around freezing. We had snow up to my keester but my most vivid memory is the wind; it was insane.

PSA - I’m proud to see no LR HRRR or SREF plumes on here. Way to go team.