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Almost time to shit the blinds on this threat.

No you're right, the delay in the ejection of the shortwave allows the cold air to escape

It sounds like the problem here is more of a timing isssue. In the runs that snowed the precip came in earlier. But with the most recent ones...things develop so slow that the cold air is already scoured out by the time the storm gets here. But I could be wrong. @psuhoffman feel free to clarify

Can we please go back to the debate, this is unimportant.

If the GFS verified it'd be a storm with no frozen at all in mid Feb, not even on the northern edge of precip (which extends to NYC), save for a few very tiny ZR pockets that are just 32 degree rain

High over Bermuda, 500mb low tracking over Northern Florida. What more can you ask for from the GFS?

i was in college at the time. i remember i was doing some school work in my room, and my roommate and his friend starting screaming "holy shit, holy shit" - I ran in and started watching. Just something that we had never seen and will probably never see again.

Sorry to anyone who saw the increase of pages since about 6pm and said WOAH what happened only to see nothing did on the models…just debate club.

malice in the palace!!!!! one of the most epic sports-related things of all time.

I was surprised this afternoon when I saw a Winter Weather Advisory appear in the alerts on my laptop, but the BTV NWS has them up for parts of the forecast area, including the western slopes of the Northern/Central Greens. On the Event Total Snow Accumulation map I see there’s some yellow 6-8” shading in the Northern Greens around here in the Bolton-Mansfield stretch, and that seems to align reasonably well with the mountain forecasts. Here at our site the numbers come in around 4-8” through Wednesday night, which is a little more aggressive than the general 4-6” shading along the spine, but we’ll have to see how long the snowfall persists – some models keep the upslope snow showers going through Thursday. The modeling also has another system coming through the area on Saturday, and with temperatures finally getting back to more normal values, we could be in line for some excellent days to hit the slopes.

Well...at least this is an on-topic back and forth But still though...lol

Too bad we had a Nina STJ this year. It was a nina-stj last winter too. Too bad, the AO was favorable

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point, at least on I95.

But that has nothing to do with my point. You’re focused on this synoptic setup and I’m focused on something that’s skewing the underlying pattern behind the synoptic setup

It sure was.

Things being nearby is overrated. Burnsville and Spruce Pine have pretty much anything I need. You just better not need something after 12 on Saturday lol. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing.

Let’s put it this way, if this ends up as widespread 4-6” over eastern regions, this winter will be making some headway continuing to stay ahead of the chains.

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now? You’re beating around it.

I could see having gone 2-4"...but 4-6" is too much IMO.

Boring. Your map of snow events completely missed the +450 Aleutian anomaly. This coming storm is not a good platform to base this "it doesn't snow anymore in marginal" stance.

Just cleared up some space.

Maybe Steve will be right and I undersold it....all weenies aside. That is a valid reason I didn't think about...time will tell.