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I believe @bluewave discussed the possibility of that happening (SE ridge hooking up with the -NAO) last week. A -PNA would definitely make that possibility more likely as you said

we dont torch but how do we get a snowstorm from this?

so far i have not seen anything in the models to get me excited about January. -NAO....sure but can that overcome a horrific Pacific? Where is the southern jet?

With this ridge centered over Florida they may be playing the outdoor classic on a pond. It will be a water polo match instead of a hockey match

Interesting that when ever we get above average snow in Dec. we never get shut out the rest of the season.

Definitely took an anomalous pattern to get December cold and snow in the east. Been record breaking warmth in the southwest (where I’m currently at for the next week or two). Usually in the upper 50s in Vegas this time of year, but it’s been close to 70 each day so far since I arrived last week. I think the Rockies are also below normal snowfall so far. I’d like to see a “normal pattern” develop in January…one in which Frederick can get a warning level snowfall from an ol’ TN Valley wave and a blocking high to the north. TBD

Torch moved to boxing day. That i am fine with. Just keep xmas eve and day cooler

Hachoo...

Same here. Always shows McDowell with a trace or 0.1 and I’m sorry, hasn’t happened.

I’d say there’s a strong chance Monday morning will be the lowest temp of the winter season. I may eat my words, but low teens have been hard to come by for years now.

That’s really incredible. Weather and climatology are so fascinating to me, so many variables at any given time producing innumerable outcomes - sometimes resulting in extreme permutations. I was born in the late 80’s so of course wasn’t around for the extremes of that decade. One of my first vivid weather memories however was the blizzard of 96… not a bad one to have. Was in Monmouth county for that as a kid.

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact.

Yes but the big dogs usually bring some warmer temps with more moisture, if they make it this far north with arctic air in place. There's a reason detroit didnt get more than 3 inches in one event in the cold pattern we've been in for 2 weeks+.

Thank you! Yes hopefully the flu shot will help me some if I get it. Having the damaged lungs from Covid. I need to avoid any flu. I know vaccines can be a dirty word for many but I have to take any precautions I can.

Saw that in NYC it was the coldest 15 days of December since 2005.

Looks like we may get some low topped convection early Friday AM with the frontal passage?

The trough has to retrograde a little to open up the gulf, which didn’t happen with this outbreak. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible for a big dog to occur during a below average period.

Photoshop the grinch onto the coppertone kid.

Yes it was Let’s just ride the 2 light snowfalls Tuesday and Friday on the AIFS

they deserve measles tbh

Unless you’re up in northern Minnesota, snow missing south has more to due weak disturbances with lack of phasing than temps being too cold. Big dogs don’t have trouble cutting up into arctic airmasses, provided they have the necessary depth. Pacific intrusions never help because they tend to split the jet.

We dont get big snows with temps in the teens and nw flow.

+8C with west flow.

I would be shocked if there isn't some widespread, high impact winter weather somewhere along the northern tier of the country mid-to-late week. There is no way we go through that without something somewhere