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  2. Mike Cycle
    Hi All, occasional lurker and Chester County resident here. I have done a deep dive on Coatesville 1 SW's history, working through the 530-1, the monthly paper records and property deeds for observers Gordon, Pyle and PECO. I then compared the record of station changes with the breakpoints identified by NOAA/NCEI and Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST). Claude helped with the graphic. There is remarkable agreement between the history of changes at 1 SW and the breakpoints detected.
  3. wncsnow
    Yeah it just trained over them all night. Drought is on life support now for most areas
  4. MANDA
    If the tropics showed any sign of life I'd be concerned about something sneaking into the southwest Atlantic and having a blocked escape route but tropics look to remain quiet for the next 7-10 days.
  5. weatherwiz
    I'm shocked there aren't flash flood watches out or flood watches. I bet tonight into tomorrow evening has more reports of flooding than the past few setups combined.
  6. bluewave
    The climatology period for the 1997-1998 super El Nino was 1961-1990. They don’t have 1941-1970 climatology maps on that site for 1972-1973. There also isn’t an 1951-1980 option for 1982-1983. So I used the closest time period that they offered at the site.
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  8. WxUSAF
    Yes. Probably @high risk can update us on that timeline but I thought it was like the end of August at one point?
  9. IronTy
    Gross day out at DCL. Misty rain and a cloud forest up at 3k ft. At least it's cool. Packing up to head back to Calvert, sounds like it's more gross down there.
  10. GaWx
    I assume you’re referring to the NE US. Regarding the US as a whole, nothing is even close to a certainty, especially this far out. Even the NE is far from certain though cold there is admittedly quite unlikely. And the SE actually had a downright cold super-Nino winter: 1957-8.
  11. yotaman
    Had a brief shower this morning amounted to just .05". That made it incredibly humid. It is 85/79 at 10:27 am.
  12. Terpeast
    I think it’s almost a given that the east coast winter will not be a cold one. For the MA, I’m thinking 2-4 AN vs 1991-2010 climo, warmer north and a bit cooler south. STJ will be very active, launching one storm after another across the south. If we can time even marginal cold air with one of them, we could score big. Most of them will probably be rainstorms.
  13. yoda
    Looks like its already going to be wrong looking down south
  14. Met1985
    That severe drought should be eroding away quickly.
  15. vortex95
    Tropical sounding. Lapse rates all below 5.5 C/km, but that's ok b/c the deep layer high dew points make up for it, and just a small amount of heating sets things off. That's why the convective temp is so low, as noted. K-index 38 and PWAT 2.16", so there is your juice! 0-6 km shear 31 kt so close to support supercells. Low-level turning on the hodograph not bad either.
  16. George001
    Yeah it will be warm. The question is more the magnitude of the warmth as that will make a big difference in terms of how much of the precip is wet vs white. There is a big difference between say +2 AN and +5-6 AN.
  17. frd
    May not be huge rains, but the signals are there for continued active weather in our area. Even at day 6/7 from the WPC along with machine learning severe threats.
  18. CoastalWx
    Let’s skip the lakes region and get Seymour another 4”.
  19. GaWx
    Chris, The following is a better way to look at how 1997-8 did: using the more appropriate/well centered climo base of 1981-2010 instead of 1961-90, which is earlier than 1997-8. Using the earlier, colder 1961-90 makes 1997-8 anomalies ~1F warmer than they actually were in many areas as you know vs the available best centered climo of 1981-2010: still mild in NE but not as mild and SE NN:
  20. MJO812
    This will not be a cold winter ( definitely the first half ) we have to see how fast the EL nino weakens.
  21. MJO812
    September is also early. Check back in November.
  22. dendrite
    Hope the HR^3 is right
  23. Rainforrest
    Picked up 3.37” last night.
  24. bluewave
    Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time.
  25. snowman19
    He’s from Philly, so yes. I would love for him to let us know which super El Niño winters (Dec-Mar) since 1970 were cold in the PHL-NYC-BOS corridor. Strong doesn’t count. I’ll wait…. @PhiEaglesfan712
  26. A-L-E-K
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