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Ok gents, keep me up to date with what’s happening locally, and I’ll keep you guys up to date on what’s happening in St Thomas.

WB 13Z HRRR has a squall line moving west to east between 2-4 pm,

Yes, the lack of humidity has been noticeable thus far. Desert life was a foreign concept before this summer

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries. OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

See, I would term that "what other hemispheric influences are competing to alter it and how".....ie, while some are accentuated, other features are blunted. That is the essence of a lagging RONI value...whereas MEI/ONI are more likely to just be universally weaker and thus more prone to polar influences.

We are only running around 80% of normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal. It looks like we should see at least some showers and thunderstorms today that could give us some welcome rain. A heat advisory goes into effect tomorrow with highs both Thursday and Friday in the low 90's with increasing humidity. Shower chances will be around both later in the day Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks cooler but still warm before we turn much cooler to start the new work week. Temperatures both Monday and Tuesday may only be in the 70's for high temperatures.

We are only running around 80% of normal rainfall for the year to date here in East Nantmeal. It looks like we should see at least some showers and thunderstorms today that could give us some welcome rain. A heat advisory goes into effect tomorrow with highs both Thursday and Friday in the low 90's with increasing humidity. Shower chances will be around both later in the day Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks cooler but still warm before we turn much cooler to start the new work week. Temperatures both Monday and Tuesday may only be in the 70's for high temperatures.

I give this post a 60% chance to be successful with a 20% chance for boom and 20% chance to bust. with love, formerly Leesburg 04

80 at 9:35 "10 after 10" 'll be a interesting test today. We may be 82 or 83 at this rate by the top of the hour, which if that old adage bears any usefulness ...sends us about 7 deg above MOS' around the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT horn. Although it's probably only 76 at BDL at 10 ... 10 after 10 isn't precise either.

Friday is getting more robust on the CSU MLP page as well - area of 30% showing up.

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

I’ll use simple hypothetical examples to illustrate why I think RONI is a better way to measure ENSO for both historical classification purposes and relevant effects: -assume worldwide ocean anomalies are in 2026 all +1C vs 1996-2025 climo due to GW and assume it’s uniform across all of the oceans -thus ONI would also be +1C/El Nino since it doesn’t separate out the 1C warming from GW -but there’s no El Nino signature as it’s +1C everywhere in the oceans -per RONI it’s perfectly neutral (0C) ENSO -classifying it as neutral makes more sense to me -now change it to +3C in 3.4 but keep a uniform +1C in all other oceans -now there’s a clear El Niño signature, but how strong is it? -ONI would classify it as +3C Nino -RONI would classify it as close to +2C Nino, which makes more sense to me @LakePaste25@bluewave

June 10 1926: An intense downpour falls on Mahoning. 3.05 inches fell in 45 minutes. For Wednesday, June 10, 2026 1752 - It is believed that this was the day Benjamin Franklin narrowly missed electrocution while flying a kite during a thunderstorm to determine if lightning is related to electricity. (David Ludlum) 1957 - A dust devil at North Yarmouth, ME, lifted a 600 to 1000 pound chicken shelter into the air and carried it 25 feet. It landed upright with only slight damage. It is unknown whether any eggs were scrambled. (The Weather Channel) 1958 - A woman was sucked through the window of her home in El Dorado, KS, by a powerful tornado, and was carried sixty feet away. Beside her was found a broken phonograph record entitled Stormy Weather . (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inch rains in southern Texas. Two and a half inches of rain at Juno TX caused flooding and closed a nearby highway. Flooding on the northwest side of San Antonio claimed one life as a boy was swept into a culvert. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced an inch and a half of small hail at Monida Pass MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Three dozen cities, mostly in the eastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather continued in the Northern High Plains Region. The record high of 105 degeees at Williston, ND, was their seventh in eight days. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather through the day and night across much of the southern half of the Great Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned 14 tornadoes, and there were 142 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter caused three millions dollars damage at Carlsbad, NM. Hail four inches in diameter was reported at Estelline TX and Stinnett, TX. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Odessa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 10 Wed National Iced Tea Day 10 Wed National Ballpoint Pen Day 10 Wed National Egg Roll Day 10 Wed National Herbs and Spices Day 10 Wed Abolition Day 10 Wed EHS Day 10 Wed National Bed Bug Prevention Day 10 Wed National Black Cow Day 10 Wed National Colt Day 10 Wed National Isabel Day

0.02" of rain this morning. Later this evening should net a little more. Hoping for some robust stms. Mid 40's n fog this morning.

I'm speculating 16.8 to 16.9 C and a new date-relative record wrt global 2-meter mean temp by June 26th

. 22" this morning. Just need to move the decimal two places to the right and we'd have something.

0.24” here

Rain is rain and I’ll take what I can get. Always want more

Glad to see you are doing well, Ian. It’s also good to see CWG able to go independent and get away from the shackles and demise of the WaPo. I hope this will allow plenty of freedom to choose interesting articles and present info without pressures. I’m happy for you all and wish you success.

This round gave me some rain. Almost enough to get the ground wet under the trees. Almost.

It'll be interesting to test that, the scale/extent/presence of BD over the next two days. Particularly on Friday... I see in the 00z GFS, ultra anal close-up OCD Rain Man inspection, that yeah ... there is a 'bulge' west in the PP over E-NE zones... perhaps as far W as ORH, but we're talking 1 to 2 whopping mb here really... if this is even real. 06z has this less so. I've noticed this about guidance, et al, over the last 5 to 7 years. They have improved significantly in the boundary layer where prior generations of modeling had trouble due to the termination of fields in boundary mechanics. They don't ...or couldn't really, process what is happening as the boundary - in this context, Earth - is approached. That's why they used to miss "tucks" in winter storms of lore, erode cold too fast ahead of warm fronts in general, all that cold lag winning shit. They are better at it, but ... it's like they're getting better assessment by over assessing. I see them create these kind of BD-esque looking features that don't exist, more than they ever used to... right around the same time they've all improved on BL handling in general. So... I've spent probably waaaay to much time on this subject this morning at this point, and it's probably a fool's errand considering the room is empty and no one's even reading this very sentence... hahaha. ...yeah

Yeah, same reason we differentiate between 1991-2020 normals vs absolute records. When we want to know a thermal pattern it’s helpful to use the 30 yr normals, but it doesn’t make sense to say “this heatwave is the biggest temperature departure on record” because it’s pretty arbitrary. We use absolute values for that.

Yeah, the big story is that these extreme ridges are making seasonal forecasting very challenging. There have been at least 16 instances of +10 or greater temperature months from December to March since December 2015. This is against the warmest 1991-2020 means which is even more impressive. In the old days these would happen much less frequently like in March 2012 and January 2006. When viewing the seasonal guidance in the fall there wasn’t any indication that these extreme months were in the forecast. I can remember looking at the EPS weeklies mid to late November 2015 and just seeing the stock El Niño forecasts of warm along the Northern Tier and cooler to the south. No indication at all of the historic +13.3 was incoming for places like NYC. A big part of that was the MJO 5 interacting with the super El Niño to produce the extreme December ridge in the East which wasn’t forecast. The other examples below really weren’t forecast well too far in advance. Some had extreme MJO event and others just stuck weather patterns like this past winter into spring. Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5