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Is the GFS really about to score a huge win?

GFS AI brings 1 - 1.5” QPF across the area (less well N&W). It’s been showing a relentless push to the NW with higher precip amounts.

Compared to the GFS, yes but it shifted NW and was a big hit.

How much of that is sleet down tis way, I would think at least half

So euro-nam rule vs the gfs? Are we still following Hurricane Schwartz' advice.and siding with the superior Euro and just tossing the GFS?

UK still horrible at 6Z but did tick west. Delmarva gets heavy rain.

I havent been taking it seriously until literally just now waking up and seeing the 6z.. it is good to see you on board.. I guess i am in.. its only 36 more hours of emotional investment at this point.. why not?

It's crazy how the NAM is basically a shutout out for almost all of Eastern PA, including Philly, and the GFS nukes a good portion of the same location. How can both of the US models have an almost 180° opposite solution?

But is the GFS AI a little farther east?

GFS:

Feel like the AIGFS might be your best case middle ground with 6-10in down near Philly and more South/East

So euro has an inch in some areas the gfs has 30. Ok.

That model drives me crazy

6z GFS is way north, like I expected.

Other model moving towards GFS, GFS REMAINS ROCK SOLID

Agreed, but all eyes on Dr. No today....how much further, if at all, will it cave.

Not going to shock me if precautionary winter storm watches are put up this afternoon

Just back from Disney, lots of tracking waiting in lines all week GFS / AI GFS led the way and wow 6z ticked even further NW blizzard for southeast portions at least 970s tracking closer to BM Warning much of SNE foot+ ORH east

So what changed overnight? Bout to go workout don’t have time for a full read.

This could require hurricane force wind warnings for the coastal waters. Tidal flooding would be a big problem with this scenario.

Who started thisanyway

WB 6Z RGEM looks more GFSesque but surface temps are warmer cutting back on accumulation.

Yes, I would find it hard to believe in a complete cave now. Refinement mode now. It will wobble but it seems locked in. The GFS has been like a pit bull for days.

you'll be fine, the flight will probably make it on time as the weather should start getting messy after 4pm or so

6z CMC better