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Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
That should break the record low at TRI by three degrees. The old record was 35. That is the fourth latest freeze in TRI history.- 232 replies
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2026 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
37 at the house this morning. -
Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
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nchighcountrywx started following 2026 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
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2026 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
nchighcountrywx replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
As low as 27.1 overnight on Mitchell -
Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread
Carvers Gap replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
It looks like the airport has dipped to 32F. That is a big time bust from my point and click which was 40-41! I went out and covered my stuff last night thankfully. The GFS and NAM have been kicking butt and taking names w/ low temps. That should be the last time we hit freezing until next fall - famous last words though!- 232 replies
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37° this morning at the house with patches of frost around! I knew when it was already 45 by 11 last night that it was probably going to be in the 30’s this morning. The wind died completely down and the dry airmass did the rest. This is just 2 days shy of the latest frost I’ve ever seen, and that was years ago. Really impressed with the cold this month, it’s been something else!
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The model mean is currently 94-99° for the usual NJ warm spots. So the drought both in the source region and locally should enhance. The record NJ high for the month of May is 99°. So some monthly maxes could be in jeopardy. Still around 5 days out so we can still refine. In any event, we haven’t seen this type of May heat before leading into such a strong El Niño. May 2015 only made it to 91° in Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Highest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1996 99 0 2 2022 98 0 - 1992 98 0 - 1987 98 0 - 1962 98 0 3 1965 97 0 - 1895 97 0 4 2021 96 0 - 2016 96 0 - 1969 96 0 - 1964 96 0 - 1914 96 0 - 1880 96 0 5 2010 95 0 - 1994 95 0 - 1986 95 0 - 1941 95 0 - 1939 95 0 The strongest developing El Niño May maxes 2023 90 0 2015 91 0 1997 86 1982 85 1972 82
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A cold frost morning this morning with a low of 31 degrees. Considerably lower than what was forecast.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If these traditional record-breaking ONI projections of over +3C are correct and the RONI continues its trend of lagging the ONI by 0.5, 1982-83, which was the strongest super El Niño on the RONI (+2.5C) since 1950, would be the closest RONI analog. Again, assuming these ONI forecasts for over +3C are correct, we would easily tie, if not beat 82-83 on the RONI - Today
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looks like after Tuesday and Wednesday that’s it for the good warmth for a little while. Maybe comes back after Memorial Day, but core of The heat over the Great Lakes means intrusions of cooler possible in New England. Although could still average above normal.
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Couple breaks in the overcast after the steining
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
42 degrees this morning. .02” from pop up drizzle yesterday. -
1.66". Decent drink Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
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Looks like Wednesday, maybe Thursday for a chance of some severe? Nothing huge of course... just the risk for it
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0z Euro has storms Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 80s
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the heat in april was with low dewpoints very dry.
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It’s at the airport where it has been for almost a century.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Ruin replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Because their temp sensor is on a sewer bed on an island.
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To me the heat we had back in April was more impressive considering that was a month ago. Coming up to the last 2 weeks of May, we typically see bursts of heat like this. By Thursday it looks to cool down, so it's really just 3-4 days of heat.
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You guys have been in the radar firehose all day. Pivot point. Here it’s been 1.00-1.50”… the Worcester Range and SE has been 1.50”+.
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Fun fact: Providence's highest temperature ever recorded in April is higher than its highest temperature ever recorded in May. In fact, it took until last year (when it reached 100 on June 24) for Providence to record a June temperature that was higher than its April 1976 record high.
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Had a nice front come thru this afternoon. Dropped the temp and more importantly, the dew point. High was 79 before the front. Dew points went from the mid 60's to the upper 40's by 6 pm.
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interesting
