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Overnight runs have been very kind to the Triangle. Showing a lot more moisture now than it was

Kids these days with their Kuchera and what not, I'm going with old school Cobb and 06z NAM for 4.5 inches at TYS for this one.

Pics of the glacial conditions… in Seaside Park (my parents). To clear their driveway I’ve had to, no joke, use a metal framing hammer with a pointed end bit by bit and a metal shovel. This is ONLY the accreting ice that had fallen the last 4-6 hours of the storm, I had cleared away the 6ish inches of snow that fell first during the storm. This is wild. I’m sore. Salt has been effectively useless. This is absolutely mental!

I think AI-GFS did okay with the last storm here, it was almost in lockstep with the Euro AIFS. So I won't kick it out of bed with that precip depication...

I thought the 00z euro looked better at H5 than it actually produced at the surface.

Feels like they are being conservative until MRX pulls the tigger… channel 3 was calling from 1-2 inches last night and nothing has really changed since then. They got beat up last weekend pretty bad .

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Does that diatribe help you to feel better? You need something. Probably a study in creative imagination would soothe your senses. Have a good day my friend. We will chat again under better circumstances. 7 degrees and cloudy at 5:30

Well damn...that looks really good. Keeps getting better with time. If the Euro didn't show a similar evolution, I'd be skeptical.

Yeah Ai has had it multiple runs, however, last night it was farther NW. type of system where I’m okay with it being farther SE currently

Watertown decoupled again -33F

Feeling good under a warning this morning. I hate the word lock in winter weather but the 9 in 10 chance is 2-3" . Of course the high end 1 in 10 is 9-11". Getting close to nowcast time

AI GFS is, for the 2nd run in a row (maybe me but I didn't check), is a much bigger event as in most, if not all, from DCA north is snow. Pivotal doesn't offer snowfall maps for AI GFS, so here's precip. Basically, makes it a decent coastal that passes to our south.

What's up with the pink pirate shirt?

GFS does something similarish to this weeks storm where it gets kicked OTS for next week. Sigh… gonna spend the next 4 days begging for it to come wear aren’t we lol

Why? Every short range model and euro plus gives me 3-4” lol I’m sitting fine. Ain’t worried at all. If it happens then cool, if not then that sucks but that’s weather. My original forecast of 2-4” looks likely to verify in NE GA and it still ticking west for us on every run including the all the mesos. Really sitting pretty. .

Paging @donsutherland1

Whether or not we get a storm, I still consider this stretch rather historic, not "wasted".

6z gfs laughs at 00z. She gone.

Insomnia got the best of me..back up. lol GFS looks more like Euro. Of course it does. But this time it's positive. This seems to be trended a bit better with each run. 3-5 It's a decent snowfall, with heavier stuff staying to our.....take a guess.

Be a man. If you say something, stick with it. Do your time. You promised you'd leave for two weeks. Do it. No one around here will respect you if you stay.

The models are all over the place because they can’t figure out how& where the storm will develop off the coast & how much dry air will get into this storm (from two different directions & sources ) .. It’s definitely going to be boom or bust in many areas… If your in VA beach through Richmond area, that last NAM run is pretty much exactly what we need to happen to really get a nice hit in both places.It forms exactly where we need it to & pushes moisture back into both areas perfectly…

So when do we run out of fuel?

Got down to 1 at home so far.. very meh compared to yesterday