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3km liking southern VT/NH into northern ORH County today

Yeah I swear every 10 mins when I refresh my station it’s up another degree. 81.1° and there’s still soggy spots in the yard. 10am ASH and FIT gone wild

This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....

It has happened before. Highest temp in May (maybe even April for someone on here one year?)

I was thinking that might be the case for me

Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.

85 at home, 85 at work before 10AM Let's add 10!!!

86 to 88 at 10 am in the local area. Looking at higher res vis sat, clouds don't appear to be an option. Very low wind to offer ventilation... Does this solitary afternoon end up being the biggest heat of the summer?

Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.

Hilarious ... thing is, ...I wondered that last winter. Seriously. I mean, I ask and ask and looked it up, and no one/source could give me a clear a-b-c, much less impression, about how these tools derive their values. Looked suspiciously like derivatives have nothing to do with it. Anyway, perhaps there's something about their "mechanics" that is more than lesser known these days. Haven't followed thru. But I tongue-in-cheek mused that these AI tools were just Google on steroids, going out and reading the entire Internet cloud, where there's obviously a fairly large/significant influence statistic of Ineedsnow mongers ... That would explain why the snow was always farther N-W ... etc haha.

I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994. 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong). Keep in mind: -There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak. -IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOF in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

AI learning what the people want

86 in the woodyard. Umbrella up.

Low chance

That storm moved NE out of Centre County and the core probably missed you just to your southeast. My wife and I were sitting outside last night watching the lightning show from over 100 miles away.

Looks like for the rest of May, the areas that really need the precip should see some improvement.

Yes but there are also other factors. Either way , this will be a milder winter than last winter. No doubt about that. That could be a good thing since suppression will most likely not be an issue. I will take my chances with that even if its snow to rain events.

There arguments against it (rising heights, dubious trigger) are legit, but it's tough to ignore that most CAMs have at least a couple of cells. I think that today warrants a 20% PoP.

12Z HRRR is very quiet for this afternoon and I just finished watering. Hopefully we will start getting some rain tomorrow.

84 ... feels meaner

Put it in a textbook for mixing.

May 19 1975: Strong winds cause over 2 million dollars of damage across Fridley, Mounds View and New Brighton. For Tuesday, May 19, 2026 1780 - The infamous "dark day" in New England tradition. At noon it was nearly as dark as night. Chickens went to roost, and many persons were fearful of divine wrath. The phenomena was caused by forest fires to the west of New England. (David Ludlum) 1955 - Lake Maloya NM received 11.28 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1975 - Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 110 mph in Minnesota, between Fridley and Hugo. Fifty persons were injured. The hail and high winds destroyed fifty mobile homes, and a dozen aircraft, and also destroyed a third of the Brighton Elementary School. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Texas produced thirteen inches of rain northwest of Lavernia. The heavy rain, along with golf ball size hail, destroyed eighty percent of the crops in the area, while high winds toppled trees. Golf ball size hail was also reported south of Dallas and around San Antonio. Up to eight inches of rain drenched Guadelupe County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in southwest Texas produced hail as large as tennis balls around Midland, with the hail accumulating up to a foot deep. Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region produced 3.5 inches of rain near Schuylkill PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from Illinois to Tennessee during the afternoon and night. Snow, wind and cold prevailed in the Northern Plateau Region and the Northern Rockies. Dixie, ID, was blanketed with nine inches of snow, winds gusted to 87 mph at Choteau MT, and the temperature at Crater Lake, OR, dipped to 11 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms deluged Hot Springs AR with thirteen inches of rain in nine hours resulting in a devastating flood. Two waves of water, four to six feet deep, swept down Central Avenue flooding stores and the famous bathhouses on Bathhouse Row. Water released from Lake Hamilton devastated the area between it and Remmel Dam. The 500 foot Carpenter Dam Bridge across Lake Catherine was completely washed away, as were cabins and mobile homes near the lake, many of which flowed right over the top of Remmel Dam. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

yeah... I wasn't sure. It just looked too much. I couldn't find any surrounding sites that matched that amount. The other aspect ... that FIT site's in a bowl. ...figuratively speaking. It's like the lowest spot around that immediate countryside. Winds being so light at the regional scope doesn't lend to scouring out at 2am but who knows. Having said that ... FIT has always appeared right to me in the past - not a lot of history of odd ball numbers, either. 'c'mon FIT! what are ya doin' to me' Sterling 7 or so miles away, S along 91 around the same time FIT had it's 16 point bump Weather conditions for: EW4324 Sterling, MA (APRSWXNET/CWOP - BOX) Elev: 636.75 ft; Lat/Lon: 42.43967/-71.78417 May 19, 3:00 am 72 63 74 SW 1G4 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:54 am 72 63 73 SSW 2G6 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:45 am 72 63 74 SW 2G5 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:36 am 72 63 74 SSW 2G5 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:29 am 72 63 73 SW 2G4 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:18 am 72 63 74 SW 2G8 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:09 am 72 63 74 SW 1G5 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:02 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G5 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:54 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G6 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:47 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:36 am 71 62 74 SW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:29 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G3 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00

Yes sir they do.