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Also an emphasis on the name, "December LONG RANGE Discussion." A LOT can still change because we are in the LONG RANGE!! Especially when the pattern is so volatile and uncertain. People need to stop canceling winter so quickly

Useless since ensembles cover it. Flipped to what?

I’m thinking not: Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

I grew up hearing "north and west of the city" in the 90s for like literally every storm it felt like. Very frustrating for a kid who loved snow.

It seems as though the affected area is CPK/LGA through SNE. Eastern PA as well. I am in awe of how much snow the Delmarva region has been getting. I remember growing up it seemed to be always warm/wet cold/dry. I would watch the weather channel (before internet lol) and they would use the phrase "its just a cold SNAP for the northeast, temperatures will rebound nicely......". The delmarva area did extremely well back then also.

Weeklies flipped for the 1st week of December.

I’ll have to check it out. Thanks for posting this!

Zzzzz

FWIW, 15 day changes

Who wants to start the Winter medium/long range thread?

Chances of some snow around Thanksgiving are looking pretty good. SW to WNW wind. From Cle morning discussion "By late Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the cold front will have departed to the east, leaving much of the region under the influence of a surface trough. With 850mb temperatures quickly dropping into the -8 to -10C range, this will mark the beginning of an increasing threat of lake effect snow. Initially Wednesday night, a sustained southwest flow across Lake Erie should isolate the heaviest band north over Lake Erie and have minimal impacts to the snowbelt minus possibly along the immediate lakeshore. By Thursday morning however, the upper level trough axis shifts east of the area and overall flow across the lake gains a more WNW wind component. This is expected to result in lake effect snow gradually shifting inland across the primary snowbelt. As this happens, ample moisture combined with deepening EQL and moderate lake induced instability should result in areas of heavy lake effect snow through Thursday night. Overall structure of the lake effect should be multi-bands with embedded heavier bands. Confidence continues to increase that there will be accumulating snow across portions of the snowbelt through Thanksgiving, but exact snowfall totals, locations, and timing remain uncertain. Given the increased travel surrounding the holiday, please keep up to date with the latest forecast and plan accordingly"

Good snowfall pattern stretching from the upper midwest and Great Lakes into new England, with poorer snow chances in the midatlantic and points south is, again, classic Nina December.

I see the same thing. Most of my buddies simply rely on their weather app, and will be standing in the pouring rain with me insisting there is a zero percent chance of rain...

Arriving in the Western Suburbs Saturday from Fort Lauderdale, sorry for all of us the warm air is following me north.

Yeah, missing data interrupts the streaks even though they continue. The only time we had some relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in recent years was in mid-February 2024. That was when that really narrow snowband in association with the record El Nino STJ streak occurred. But since it was only a one week pattern in such a warm winter, there wasn’t sufficient time for follow up events to occur and end the NYC and LGA streaks. So it upped the odds of the streak continuing at spots like NYC and LGA.

Could also throw 2001 in.

26 frosty degrees this morning. 116 days 01 hour 21

Of course, there's an element of luck to it.

Maybe a compromise??

Misery loves company in there

I smoked 2 turks yesterday. Today is fast day to offset yesterdays gluttony.... Happy Turk week gang.

LGA's streak continues. Unfortunately, LGA reported "M" for snow on January 11th (0.02" qpf). There's no question that the streak continues there. On a separate note, there are occasional data issues. For example, on October 2, 2025, JFK had a high of 66° (hourly values). No location in the NYC area had highs in the 70s. JFK's high temperature is listed as 72°.

Very heavy frost to the Valley floor this morning with a low of 30. Strong cold front arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and actually stays chilly into the weekend. My point and click forecast has lows in the upper 20’s Wednesday morning, 22 Thursday morning and 19 Friday morning.

address?? J/k...

Just as you argue the SSW is unlikely to be as impactful, I would also argue that February is unlikely to be as warm and the reflection event will last longer. Notice that 2018 was on the shorter end of the spectrum...