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  2. 1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times.
  3. A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now
  4. I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
  5. I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. Record warmth now covers most of the Gulf. northern Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Atlantic. Wouldn't take much for a spin-up to occur in a prime spot with the right steering flow to put parts of the US in danger over the coming weeks. I do worry that the narrative of "record low" activity (which is true) is going to cause people to let their guards down. @GaWxshowed proof of that. Additionally, if this combo does not occur in 2026, then that becomes extra concerning for 2027, especially if there is a flip back to a cool ENSO state.
  8. 0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces
  9. Both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a record Southeast ridge next week.
  10. in a few years the definition of torch will be +20
  11. look at this mauve stinger sting i got because of climate change
  12. Yeah. I set my t-stat to 68 cool from pretty much April to October. This is what my central air usage looks like just about every year.
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  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  15. i think that's in AMS' official glossary, yeah... 5 = torch
  16. We know this ... but just in case. The idea that acorns can predict a wet warm or snowy cold winter has very low or no skill as a forecasting metric. Years with perceived surpluses of acorns have nothing to do with ensuing seasonality. According to all science/peer reviewal, those were influenced/triggered by past environmental factors - so yeah... , it was cold and snowy last year. or warm and wet... which ever. tell us what we already know. but obviously... we are so fantastically bored -
  17. Don't disagree, but more for my Mid Atlantic peeps who have suffered through enough snow falling within 500' asl with rain/mix at the surface. I witnessed it enough times living/working under or near flight paths near BWI to scar my weenie memory. Lol
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