All Activity

Just as I say that we are getting a burst of sleet again. Probably rate driven.

Ah. hmm

We’re actually on the Kennebec River fishing for smelts

How thick is the ice? What are you catching at that lake?

Boston in Feb '78 had snow at rates of up to 4 inches/hr, combined with hurricane-force winds and coastal flooding due to a record storm surge. This storm will be tame compared to that one.

How well equipped do you think Duke is to deal with a widespread ice-related outage. Especially with the cold air expected after? Think they can realistically get places back online fairly quickly?

NAM still with mostly sleet in NC and a line of freezing rain that turns to rain.

Of course you gonna lead into the models that have more snow for you. However you betting on longer range models now then shorter range models? Nam is in range gfs and euro arent.

Nam looks good for Monday.

I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all.

Winter Storm Warning Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the warning criteria is met. The warning criteria for snow is 6 inches expected in a 12 hour period, or 8 inches expected in a 24 hour period. The warning criteria for ice is accumulations meeting or exceeding 1/2 inch. A winter storm warning may also be issued for heavy snow combined with strong winds of 25-34 mph that will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities. https://www.weather.gov/okx/wwa_definitions

NWS obs don't report virga. SW WV stations reporting light snow. Eastern KY moderate.

Trust me, learned my lesson. Not dismissing it at all wrt thermals

Starting early (smoking) that is lol

If you couldn't see the flakes you literally can't tell yet but it's already blowing on the roads with every last breeze particle simulation style. Even with shit rates and zero expectations it's comforting to know we're at least not losing a single flake to melt

virga?

Same for RIC. Forecast was 24, and currently sitting at 20/-3.

I clicked close to nyc

I'd take the under on 11.6 at CPK

Very light snow has started IMBY in Kingsport. 32 degrees, was 34 earlier.

Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run.

Don't mind him he's a good guy he just questions everything. I tried to tell him last year the same thing when I had 3 inches of snow at my house and he told me I was lying. Lol

RRFS - 18Z QPF SNow 10:1