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Yeah still snowing up in these parts. Dry slot makes it up to NYC

I would laugh if we only ended up with 3-5”. The public meltdowns would be quite something

Nam is def pretty low with the heights to our northeast. I think the NAM would definitely go more coastal on Monday.

Well, VDOT appears to think it's gonna snow. Out laying down the white stripes on all the roads this afternoon.

I was tracking if/when the changeover happens. It definitely will snow a lot earlier in the day on Sunday.

Something funky with those storm total maps. Central NJ shows 1.3" of QPF, the 3 hour maps showed all snow till at least 7pm Sunday (by which time precipitation was almost done), and yet only 9-10" of snow at 10:1.

Kuchera is near a foot

I kind of think it will be a sleet and snow mix

Alright so tell me this...in the overall setup what is the problem? Not having any blocking? I woulda thought...sw off of Baja, wall of moisture coming right at us with deep cold in place would be simple. But why all these complications?

It start Sunday morning

Ha didn’t even know there was a threat next weekend too. and we shall see! I see Towson university already closed Monday/Tuesday

Damn work... Had me occupied all day. How dare they expect a full day's work for wages paid when a snowstorm is eminent! I like were we sit still, love that NWS graphic that has us circled for possibility to see 13-18 inches if all goes right. I would expect the AIs to maybe be a bit more onto the warm nose intrusion, they are trained on past storms, and the majority would argue a track like this probably brings the mix but I think even if we flirt with warm nose, nobody sees plain rain, we have a legit arctic airmass and near perfect wall of high pressure to keep funneling that into the storm.

To my untrained eye the models are having a difficult time determining the location of the primary before the transfer; the ensemble means are clearly south compared to the ops. The next step is determining how much energy might phase as the GFS is chasing lp centers off the coast; the Euro less so. As we get closer I am looking for the transfer to be closer to the VA/NC border, with the primary dying off in southern or central W.V. To me, that will signal a solid storm.

Onset surface temp of 13 out this way. That is quite a bit warmer than earlier guidance. We basically still have no idea whats going to happen.

I know it's the NAM, but it's scored last minute events like this in previous times. There were several events in the 2013 - 2015 time frame where it picked up on some mid level warmth of subsidence that even the Euro didn't detect. To see the NAM and some other meso guidance trend lower/more disjointed is a bit of a red flag.

Evolution of the NAM looks fine. Can’t really put too much stock in what it does in the final 24 hours. Really plows the SLP north and dry slots us a bit. Heavier snows would be city and north

I mean it makes sense if the H5 is right? More positviely tilted trough and flatter flow will not get the moisture transport we need. Ok done with Nam nitpicking hah

ngl, it would be nice to have one last amped nam run verify, before it's decommissioned (likely in march). now is it's moment.

Has all data been put into the models or hasn't enough sampling been done?

Going with less ice than WRAL.

those rates will be incredible

here we go again with a model not showing stuff people want to see