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Tuesday looked the best a few days ago, now the whole period looks like crap

Imagine 850 temps like this the morning of 8/30. 0C ALB, -3C PWM, -4C CAR

Are you talking about Pit1 or Pit2? My winter expectations for Pit1 are limited to the fantasty pipe-dream storms of James' lore. Last year's Mattapoisett winter will just be the topic of 'remember whens' when the oldies are talking in future decades.

As others have been discussing, Dolly has proven quite resilient vs. model expectations, with the recent 'explosion' of convection seemingly aided by the diffluent, highly sheared flow. Surface obs from the Leeward Islands in the NE Caribbean have been quite interesting. I agree with @vortex95 that it's pretty clear Dolly doesn't meet the criteria for a TC, but it is not far off IMHO. Thread here: https://x.com/yconsor/status/2094029423624310857

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1953) NYC: 98 (1973) LGA: 99 (1953) JFk: 95 (1973) Lows: EWR: 49 (1934) NYC: 50 (1965) LGA: 55 (1986) JFK: 51 (1965) Historical: 1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum) 1838 - A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people. 1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel) 1907: Snow fell on Monadnock Mountain in southern New Hampshire. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1915: Some of the chilliest August weather on record occurred from the Plains to the upper Midwest. Locations that reported their all-time coldest temperature for August included: Neillsville, WI: 31°, Rochester, MN: 32° (also earliest first occurrence of freezing temperatures), Fayette, IA: 33°, Winona, MN: 33°, Charles City, IA: 34°, Grand Meadow, MN: 34°, Lancaster, WI: 34°, La Crosse, WI: 35°, New Hampton, IA: 35°, Rockford, IL: 35 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950: On this date through the 31st, Hurricane Baker made landfall at Santa Rosa Island between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL with winds of 100 mph. At Pensacola, the lowest sea-level pressure was 991 millibars or 29.27 inches of mercury at 10 PM with a maximum wind speed of 42 mph from the southeast. A waterspout/tornado came ashore and unroofed a home and store at Apalachicola, FL. 23 homes were damaged. One other tornado was reported in Jackson County. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1953: Five days with 100° or more the 29th to the 2nd at DC -100,103,102,102,101 (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1954: Hurricane Carol strengthened to Category 2 strength off the North Carolina coast with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph. Carol would accelerate over the next 24 hours and make landfall the next day over the Fire Island community of Point O' Woods on the eastern end of Long Island, NY with 100 mph sustained winds. An interesting note from Hurricane Carol was some of the strongest criticism came about the name of the storm. Editorials railed that it was not appropriate to give a nice name like Carol to a destructive hurricane. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1955: Big Meadows had 23.88 inches, VA greatest monthly precipitation total. 1959: Severe thunderstorms moved south across western Oklahoma, leaving several swaths of extensive hail damage. The Weatherford area was especially hard hit. Hail up to golf ball size caused severe damage to roofs and windows on almost all homes and buildings in the Weatherford area. Other hail paths, some of which caused 100% crop damage, extended from Dill City, south to the Red River in Cotton County, over the Grandfield area, and from near Granite to Headrick. The storms continued into north Texas, where wind damage was reported in the Burkburnett, Wichita Falls, Iowa Park, and Henrietta areas. Wind gusts to 75 mph were measured. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1962: Hackberry, LA gets 22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish the state record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1965: Canadian high pressure brought another chilly start to parts of the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Raleigh, NC dropped to 46°; their coldest August reading. Other record lows included: Concord, NH: 32°, Elkins, WV: 37°, Binghamton, NY: 37°, Ste. St. Marie, MI: 38°, Worcester, MA: 38°, Buffalo, NY: 38°, Williamsport, PA: 38°, Beckley, WV: 39°, Hartford, CT: 39°, Roanoke, VA: 43°, Charleston, WV: 45°, Lynchburg, VA: 45°, Richmond, VA: 47°, Boston, MA: 48°, Norfolk, VA: 52°, Charlotte, NC: 53 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1967: Hurricane Katrina crossed the southern tip of Baja California and then traversed almost the entire length of the Gulf of California before making landfall again and rapidly weakening. More than two inches of rain fell in parts of southern California. Two inches fell at La Quinta and the city was cut off for several hours. 150 homes were damaged by floods in Palm Desert and Indian Wells. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976: Another preview of fall as record lows were recorded across parts of Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Grand Rapids, MI fell to 39°, the coldest ever recorded during the month of August. Scattered frost occurs in rural areas. Ste. St. Marie, MI: 35°, Detroit, MI: 41°, Muskegon, MI: 41°, Youngstown, OH: 41°, Toledo, OH: 41°-Tied, Dayton, OH: 43 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1979: Hurricane David grew into one of the most intense storms ever to cross the Caribbean Sea. After wiping out the tiny island of Dominica with 150 mph winds, David crashed ashore in the Dominican Republic at peak intensity on this date, with wind gusts over 200 mph. The central pressure in the storm was at its lowest at 924 millibars or 27.29 inches of mercury. More than 1,200 people on the two-nation island were killed and over 80,000 were left homeless. Damage totaled more than $1 billion dollars in the Caribbean alone. Skipping through the Bahamas, David struck a glancing blow on Florida, just north of the Gold Coast, tore across Cape Canaveral and then moved up the East Coast on September 6th, downing trees and power lines well into New England. 1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1985: Massive evacuations were ordered for beach front communities along the northern Gulf Coast as Hurricane Elena made her move toward the coast just before a busy Labor Day weekend. A cold front approached from the northwest, which collapsed the steering currents around Elena, and the storm began to recurve. It approached Florida, moving quite close to Tampa Bay and Cedar Key, before high pressure bridged the frontal boundary and steered Elena back towards the west. Elena intensified as it accelerated west-northwest, and was a major hurricane by the afternoon on September 1st peaking later that day at 125 mph. The hurricane made landfall near Biloxi, MS on September 2 as a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. Rainfall ranged from 2 inches at Key West to 11 inches at Apalachicola. 1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Three people were hurt by lightning in Kalamazoo County, Michigan. Two of them were huddled under an umbrella on the side of a road, watching a wrecker operator connect their stalled vehicle to his tow truck. Lightning struck the umbrella and then traveled to the wrecker operator. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Little Rock, Arkansas: The temperature rises to 111 °F at the North Little Rock Airport, setting a new record for the hottest temperature ever observed at the location. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2001: Thunderstorms developed over northern Illinois during the evening hours. A series of thunderstorms moved across northern Cook County, dumping torrential amounts of rainfall. Flooding was reported on portions of the Kennedy and Edens expressways. The 93 mile deep tunnel was filled to capacity with 1.6 billion gallons of water forcing the Wilmette licks to be opened to dump 75 million gallons of storm and sewer water directly into Lake Michigan. O'Hare Airport received 4.31 inches of rain, most of which fell between 9 pm and 11 pm. This rainfall brought the total for the month to 12.25 inches, making this the second wettest month on record for Chicago. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Lightning struck and killed a man at Busch Gardens near Williamsburg, VA . (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2004": At landfall the storm, Gaston was originally classified as just shy of hurricane strength. While wind damage in South Carolina was minimal, the slow-moving storm produced five to ten inches of rain along its path, causing extensive flooding. Gaston moved north over land, weakening to a tropical depression but still bringing torrential rain to central Virginia, where at least eight people were killed in the ensuing floods. Richmond International Airport had 6.68 inches, Ashland recorded 10.61 inches, including 4.33 inches in one hour. The Richmond (West End ) reported 12.60 inches of rain and Mechanicsville had 10.70 inches. The Shockoe Bottom entertainment district near downtown Richmond was devastated by the flooding. Total damage was estimated at about $130 million. Ref. (Weather Underground Hurricane History Archives - Gaston) 2008: Hurricane Gustav set the world record for the highest wind gust measured in a tropical cyclone with a reading of 211 mph measured in Paso Real de San Deigo, Cuba. “The wind peaked and the anemometer mast fell over sharply interrupting the measurement…” (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2011: Even before Hurricane Irene dumped rain on the Northeastern United States over the weekend, parts of New England were very soggy. The rain gauge at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York recorded 7.8 inches (19.8 cm) on Aug. 14, breaking the previous daily record of 6.27 inches (15.9 cm), set in 1984. Before Irene, Robinson told LiveScience, New Jersey was having its sixth-wettest August since statewide records started in 1895. Then Irene moved in as the second-largest rainstorm in the state since 1895. Preliminary estimates peg New Jersey's August rainfall at 16.5 inches (41.9 centimeters), making it the rainiest month ever recorded in the state. (Ref. LifeScience.Com)

65 / 62 partly - mostly cloudy in spots. Low - mid 80s as clouds build in later and some scattered showers. The ridge coincides with clouds and showers Mon - Fri and max temps capped in the mid - upper 80. Ridge goes up and onshore comes around 9/5 - beyond with near normal overall.

61 years ago right now we were advecting in, arguably, our coldest August airmass in recorded history.

With no winter this year .. and living in the worst climate in the lower 48 like you do.. why do you want summer to end ? A winter there of 40’s and 50’s and no snow will not be fun

I have had not mowed my lawn since July 13th until last week---and that was just to make the brown a little more uniform.

Interesting how despite the 1+2 positive anomalies, the actual temperature of 1+2 continues to drop.

Wtf??? Am I now on a watch list?

I'm pretty sure that you already knew that was likely this week. I apologize if i'm stepping on your toes. Maybe i'm overthinking things.

Is that your version of Live Laugh Love?

A is colder than B. So that would be 7a creeping in down there. (0 to +5) Still a 5b here which makes sense. My average extreme min is probably around -11 or -12 here…cooler in the valley. But growing zones are kinda dumb because it only takes one cold shot to go well below your zone and kill plants that you’re potentially zone pushing with. Feb 2023 is a good example with -10 and wind at BOS.

Summer's over. Learn it. Know it. Live it.

Sunrise this morning:

Because SC. j/k I lived in SW FL for a year. It was nice, but I missed it up here. This is home. And a lot of the fruit I like to grow doesn’t do well in the deep south. I love the seasons, but as I get older winter just feels longer and more grueling. It’s different up here than a lot of SNE too. The CAD foils a lot of the warmups and often keeps snowpack in place for months without much of a break. That may sound like a winter weather humble brag, but it isn’t. When I need a weather mental health break and it’s 33F and fog here for 48hrs while it’s 55-60° from BOS to BDL I want to break things and ban people near the Pike.

What a mess

Maybe some decent rain chances this week? Scattered stuff later today and this evening.

Wow 3 days in a row of possible severe weather.

We can add August 2026 to the list also. Monthly Data for August 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.43 NJ HARRISON COOP 11.74 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.93 NY FRANKLIN SQUARE 1.1 N CoCoRaHS 10.90 NJ KEARNY 1.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.84 NJ CLARK TWP 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.83 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10.16

And Thursday.