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Yeah, I think models are still figuring out just how dense this cold air is. If it's just dense enough, you get it just high enough to switch from ZR to IP. Here's hoping.

Well, it's about as extreme of a SWFE as you'll get given the airmass combined with the potential for a coastal finish in Monday.....this is akin to someone saying on March 11, 1993 "It's progressive, I don't know how we are getting 2-4'". I'm, not comparing the events, but the point is that this is not a climo SWFE..hell, 12-16-07 dropped over a foot and the airmass wasn't quite this cold, nor was there any redevelopment aside from a triple-point.

In the DC area, the first local TV newscast on Saturday will be Channel 4 WRC at 6 am. Channel 7 WJLA will start its local news show at 8 am, and may show closings again.

That would be FZRA. A "rule of thumb" is if you integrate the area above 0c vs below 0c and compare the "area". If Above 0C > Below 0C then FZRA.

Maybe a nod to the models showing a dry slot.

WB 18Z para

I think what's needed is that GIF with the guy and girl walking along, he's checking out the hot (GFS) babe but in a twist, she (NAM) is checking out the Euro. And RGEM is walking along reading his I-phone and crashing into a lamp-post. Anybody?

Feeling good. It's nice to just watch a storm unfold without worrying too much. It's about damn time. This is going to be a big one for many, not just in New England.

I cant wait to see the satellite images of the country on Monday. A 2000 mile swath of white is coming to the country.

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

I really feel bad for those folks, After living thru Icestorm 98 here and we are much more suitable to handle events, They're fukd

I mean, anything over 10 inches here will be gravy. Usually SWFE is 8”-10” max here. I’m guessing Greenfield will be 10” if it’s under that I might be disappointed but I’m fine with a decent warning event, no matter what happens.

The way you been talking the last 12hour I thought I was getting 2" lol

A fairly ordinary storm? Down here, 10-16” has been around our seasonal total for like 3 of the last six years. This is phenomenal!

Cautiously optimistic. If it gets too "drifty" you can get some weird maps. Can't make an accurate snow total with a 2ft x 2ft wide area.

Comparing the 850 mb temperatures for Philly, NW Burlington County NJ, NW Camden County between 18z GFS and 18Z Euro, the GFS NEVER gets the temperature above zero degrees C, and even then, it only holds it there for 3 hours maximum (probably shorter). This doesn't occur until 03z Monday. The Euro, on the other hand, keeps the 850 mb temperature around 3 degrees C at 0z Monday, and then only reduces it to zero and below 10 hours later. Yet the snow fall estimates are not too different from each other, implying that most of the heavy precipitation ended before the changeover. One more thing... the nasty run of the latest NAM model shows the 850 mb temperature on the NJ coast at 10 degrees C (50 degrees F!). How in the world could those temperatures have warmed that much. Make me believe there is a problem with the run.

Don, You are looking good at both locations for this one.

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

I don't watch the news really so idk what they're saying, but this is probably going to be a legitimately high end to historic storm. Anyone getting .75-1" of ZR down in the south is going to have their grid collapse.

We all should’ve chipped into buy DIT a plane ticket to Greensboro NC.

18z Euro AI vs 6z Euro Ai at same timeframe...definitely trending toward the HP tongue wrapping around the southern end of valley

Beautiful

Well, your area never had any more upside than that, but some other spots do.

That was a fantastic run for us. We hold until 18z with about 0.9” QPF by then. Here’s 18z at DCA. To me, this does look like freezing rain at 00z Monday but someone much smarter could correct me.

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