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It's the ultimate overrunning system.

I though that would be the easy one lol

You can start with the ridge out west being positively tilted...I said that a couple of days ago....it's like last year. Set up looks good from 500 yards, but once you get a good look, the beer goggles come off.

Sure, you could have the low stack stall out just off the coast producing a longer duration storm. In my mind, we would need that southern stream s/w to not eject or get so strung out that it gets folded into the oncoming impulse from the dakota's but I'm not holding my breath on that. But... This is a triple phase setup, so things usually get messy.

Euro completely lost threat 2. Crazy

The upside isn't much more than that up here. I get it.....people sit on the dopamine syringe and spin when they see the deep closed low, but that is NOT where you want that if you live up here. That overhyped, wind-bag in early January 2018 did that.

One thing that might be right. We are in that window where the Euro loses storms. Maybe this is one of those times. It’s there but not there if that makes sense.

Geez -- do we have to worry about more rain??

That clipper on the euro is almost what the gfs showed the other day. It thumps northern middle Tn and southern middle Kentucky where those convective looking snow showers are.

Fuggetaboutit...it's a 126hr panel. Everything remains on the table and a 126hr bullseye is not something to write home about (as you know.)

It's 19-20 degrees while it's snowing. Woah.

Took another step towards the gfs. I'll take that 5 days out.

Definitely some snow opportunities coming up. Clippers and/or lake effect. Beats CAD any day

End of EURO is 1-2’+. You’re gonna love the maps when they drop

Second wave is a clipper on the euro with connective snow showers. If you get caught under one you'll get dumped on.

So weird It looks so promising here and then it dies

Is there any way out of this moisture issue? The last few GFS runs were showing decent QPF numbers around 1+".

EURO cooking up a monster at end of run, I think. Like 330

Yup, definitely a moisture issue. A 989 low producing very little precip.

Yep this week will be a dud most likely. GFS is a garbage model.

Yeah. We're not really setting ourselves up for tapping as much moisture as we could be for storms this time of year. The unusual part of this pattern is really the ridge over the PacNW. I don't recall seeing a 588dm high over Nor-Cal this time of year. We're just seeing the downstream effects of that which includes cold air intrusions coming straight south from Hudson Bay.

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

The Euro was a huge step towards the older GFS runs. It was a pleasure to PBP for y'all. Good night!

Definitely improved from 12z and as Tellico noted, it actually stepped towards the GFS.