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700's look to be showing coastal influence at 27 (column collapsing)? Watch that in future runs. COULD be a path to victory for southers. This is the warmest model and I'm gonna keep an eye on that. Might be noise. Dunno

Yeah the unreliability of the models is incredible for being the day of. They were all incredibly consistent all week up til a few hours ago saying this system is gonna dump on us with a forceful 1+2 punch. HRRR in particular has cut the totals in half in just 6 hours time.

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

NAM also showing that sleet line crashing south again in the evening. Somewhere along that area is in for a rough few hours.

Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps

two truck accidents. one on I-22 in Mississippi near New Albany... the other on I-65 near Athens, Alabama.

NAM does have a line of freezing rain in the foothills at hour 36 that changes to rain as it moves across NC.

I miss posted .

When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us…

Got down to 1 degree this morning. A fresh dusting of 1/4" Still nothing overly impactful anywhere in the pipeline.

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen.

ANd freezing rain on top of that. Not a catastrophic amount, but enough to be a problem.

Nowcast precip shield more expansive than 3k nam forecast for 14-15z, with the ice line a tick further south than modeled. But just a little bit

Totally agree

This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr.

MIDNIGHT Monday HRRR keeps giving. Looking good.

If the NAM is right, you'll probably need to shovel sleet twice to avoid throwing your back out lol.

Bring the juice. Sling it up and in and don’t stop.

Nam is perilously close to a ton of sleet for most of CT/RI/SE Mass.

This is one of those where josh could get 8 inches, while my backyard gets a dusting. You should do well.

Sleet goes all the way up to NNJ. Nam might be too fast. Sometimes it has these wonky runs the day before. If this is correct its only a 4-8 inches snowstorm before heavy sleet.

What popped in my mind is a "clash of the titans". If it snows hard enough and the cold air clashes with the warm nose, it could get convective and maybe even produce "thundersnow". It seems all these signals for a big "thump to sleet" suggests some high in/hr before a changeover.

Sweet. Lets get 3” of sleet

FV3 still one to hang on to but it came down a bit with snow totals (except NW crew) all the same. 8-9 for the metros on kuchera vs 10-11 last run.