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Maybe. That’s still an issue regarding destructive interference.

In a week it was all a dream

The definition of persistence forecasting lol

Dude look at this shit. What an absurd bullshit reading for great barirngton.

Actually... "DE"phasing is more the problem ... the flow splitting because the +PNA ridge is biased west is actually blanketing the entire region down stream over the continent in a negative interference - it's just another form of shear stressing

Mostly anything the gfs usually shows beyond 240 usually is

No my point is similar looks have done nothing for the reasons we stated a few pages back. Maybe this will, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

sorry but this is meteorogically impossible

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures. A few showers are possible tomorrow. A more significant rainfall is likely Saturday into Sunday. Then, rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". The work week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region tomorrow. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.167 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Gulf Low late in the run in 18z GFS. A little snow and a lot of ZR.

GFS at 312 now on Pivotal looks somewhat interesting, but too far out to pay too much attention to.

So I'm looking for the 15th S/W spacing and it's not even in our hemisphere until 30+ hours ... that circle in the top left half way to Japan appears to trace. Yeah, about as close to 100% chance that this things going to morph all over hell and gone before we need to worry about it

So why wouldn’t it? Are you persistent forecasting?

that 18z gfs..wowzers. can't get much worse

DFW made it to 80*F again today, though the record high was quite safe at 88*F.

Most Canada geese in our area are non-migratory

My last below freezing low was on Tues. (1/6) with a 29. Yesterday's low 37 and this morning's low was 39 here in NW Philly. Made it up to 53 yesterday but "only" 51 today and current temp is 42 with dp 35.

Interesting topic of birds not migrating as far south as they used to because of recent crappy winters.

Nothing, it’s right where you want it actually

Everyone's hung up on phasing for some reason... I was under the impression this 15th ish was Miller A Those aren't phases usually until the get past our latitudes; the clio on Mill As is that they get captured near NS or NF and then we see why Baffin Island is basically just big bald barren rock. personally I haven't seen much evidence that this was going to be a subsume or any other type of phasing ?

Fangs!

I have to disagree. Extended looks cold after midmonth

Listen bro…you sound like a young silly kid? I don’t know if that’s true or not, but you don’t know what the F you’re talking about. So reign in the BS, or stay in the NYC forum.

What you want a week out .

think the jan 2005 blizzard was a clipper type system; it was a big snow but not on the level of others, though it did hit cape cod really hard. around 12-18 in most of the region; cold and all snow.