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From Glenn Burns. I know it is the middle of summer, however there are some clear signals already being seen about our upcoming winter. Early signs are emerging for more Polar Vortex disruptions. New long-range data shows a notable January weakening signal in the stratosphere. We have a Super El Nino changing global wind and weather patterns. Another MAJOR contributor is the melting arctic sea ice. The arctic is warming 4 times faster than the rest of the planet! Just look at the difference in sea ice from just 10 years ago. A 40% loss! With more exposed ocean we have more heat being absorbed. That heat is a major contributor to disruptions and weakening of the polar vortex, sending frigid arctic air south. With a Super El Nino providing a lot of moisture in the southeast, things could get very interesting this winter, especially late winter. A weaker or disrupted Polar Vortex does not guarantee cold and snow for everyone. But it does increase the chance that Arctic air can break out of the polar regions and reach us. Looking at the past three "Super" El Niño events—1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016—the overarching theme for North Georgia was abundant moisture and a supercharged southern storm track. Because a strong El Niño parks the subtropical jet stream directly over the Southeast, a steady conveyor belt of Gulf moisture is virtually guaranteed. However, the temperature profiles and wintry outcomes varied drastically based on whether cold Arctic air was available to interact with that moisture. Here is how those three distinct winters played out across North Georgia: 1982–1983: The Frozen and Wet Super El Niño This event brought the classic combination of heavy precipitation and enough cold air to deliver significant winter weather. The Setup: The active southern storm track consistently collided with suppressed, cold air masses. The Weather: It was a chilly, highly active winter. Instead of just plain rain, North Georgia saw multiple wintry mix setups. Notable Outcomes: Atlanta recorded an impressive 10.3 inches of snow over the course of the 1982–1983 season. The active jet stream also spawned a severe coastal-tracking storm system in February 1983 that dumped massive snow further up the East Coast after clearing the Southeast. 1997–1998: The Warm, Soggier "Godzilla" El Niño The 1997–1998 event was one of the strongest ocean-warming anomalies on record, but a distinct lack of Arctic air kept North Georgia mostly out of the snow zones. The Setup: While the subtropical jet stream was incredibly intense and brought storm after storm, the polar jet stayed far to the north, locking the true winter cold up in Canada. The Weather: It was a cloudy, exceptionally wet, and generally mild winter. December saw near-normal temperatures, but January and February turned remarkably warm. Notable Outcomes: Instead of snow, this winter was defined by endless rain, mud, low solar days, and localized flooding. Wintry precipitation was remarkably rare across the region despite the endless moisture. 2015–2016: The Record-Breaking Warm and Flooded Winter This most recent Super El Niño shared many traits with 1997–1998, pushing the warm and wet side of the spectrum to historic extremes, particularly early in the season. The Setup: A dominant high-pressure ridge and a strong polar vortex kept cold air bottled up north, while a moisture-rich southerly flow relentlessly pumped air from the Gulf of Mexico. The Weather: December 2015 shattered records as the warmest and wettest on record for almost all of Georgia. Atlanta averaged a staggering 12.3°F above normal for the month, with high temperatures frequently climbing into the 70s. Notable Outcomes: Atlanta recorded 12.51 inches of rain in December alone (more than 8.5 inches above normal), leading to widespread river flooding and soggy soils. January and February finally cooled down closer to long-term averages, but the winter as a whole remained overwhelmingly warm, wet, and liquid. If you look at the baseline of a Super El Niño for North Georgia, you can safely bet on well above-average precipitation and active storm tracks. But as these three events show, the difference between a historic 10-inch snow season and a winter where people are wearing shorts on Christmas boils entirely to the wild card of the northern polar jet. That is why these early signals along the melting arctic sea ice gives us a better handle on what we might expect

Chigger?

Average high in Miles city is 90 though.. didn't realize that but still

July should be our first “fully coupled” month. Come August, will need to find a site that plots omega since NCAR is discontinued. Would like to compare it to past super nino July’s.

It's 115 in Miles City Montana right now.. that's nuts!

Yeah…if you look at 2016, the convection is very far west. Should be east of that IMO although we will really put that theory to the test if it’s “not cool enough” to stop convection there.

Fun watching the showers/t-storms rolling WEST in a line from Front Royal to almost Lynchburg this afternoon, lol. Everything out this way seems to just be stationary, MAYBE a slight WSW movement. Although I've only had .25-.30 here since noon, 10 miles to my south has had 2-4 INCHES of rain and a FFW until 7:45 pm.

1982?

I’m leaning towards a more canonical super Nino response than 15-16, but not quite to the level of 97-98.

Well they won, but lose Blaze to a broken hand. Orioles can't have nice things.

2015-2016 has been referenced quite frequently for it's pretty abrupt transition to some wintry interludes throughout the NE during the second half...I wouldn't say they aren't remembered. It's just that they weren't as anomalous or long-lasting as the warmth in December, so the season was mild in the aggregate. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see something similar this year.

2015-16 actually had several very cold periods nationally, it's just no one remembers because they never mapped cleanly on to calendar months. I had 5 inches of snow in December 2015, give or take - but it was so cold it didn't melt for three weeks in the shadows. On these images, light blue is 1F to 3F below average, and dark blue 3F to 5F below average. The light purple spots are 5F to 7F. That super heat wave at the end of January flushed out most of the cold in the North.

Chris, Keep in mind that the mild 2015-6 avg. in the E US was so heavily dominated by the warmest Dec on record in many locations. I assume you realize that Jan-Feb wasn’t mild in the E US outside of New England with Jan actually being chilly VA S and SW:

According to last night's spc 4 AM update, some of the overlaps deterministic guidance was originally picking up on are in jeopardy. Timing issues.

Yeah, 1997-1998 was the last canonical super El Niño. The La Niña-like influence in December 2015 merging with the Nino standing wave was through the MJO 5. The precipitation impacts were also different from previous super El Niños. In 2023-2024 we saw another MJO excursion through the IO and MC during January when the Southeast ridge emerged. The pattern since May has seen the strongest heat and ridging across the CONUS outside a neutral or La Niña summer with a strong -PDO influence. The summer -PDO drop and +AMO increase has been a common feature during the 2020s. So there are multiple ways for competing or overlapping marine heatwaves to interact with an El Niño. This summer is the most extreme example of a dominant -PDO pattern across the CONUS at the same time a record super El Niño is strengthening. The 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niños showed that the interaction actually resulted in warmer winters conditions than 1997-1998. Both winters featured the El Niño ridge south of Hudson Bay building down further into the Eastern U.S. than normal. But even if this event found a way to have the canonical 1997-1998 response, a +3.9 event alone without any -PDO or MC forcing influence could easily surpass 1997-1998 in spots for warmth. Ridges have been getting stronger than troughs regardless of whether we have an El Niño or La Niña.

I do think we have to watch Wednesday for some strong storms, particularly south of the Pike, despite NAM showing zilch for QPF.

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

To his credit, Joe Bastardi made quite a good call on Arthur starting way back in late April when he projected MJO to go into phase 8 in early June and thus forecasted TCG in the Gulf based on climo of phase 8. He was about a week too early, which he admitted and he even admitted he got lucky. It actually formed when the MJO moved from 8 to 1. Regardless, I’m giving him credit, especially since I sometimes criticize him for being wrong. I’m mentioning this now because during the last couple of days, he’s been talking about the MJO returning to phase 8 for most of the 2nd half of July on the Euro (JMA agrees) although the GEFS holds it back and only barely reaches 8 before bringing it back into 7. So, based on the Euro, JB is sort of predicting Gulf tropical mischief potential again later this month based on July phase 8 climo being similar to June phase 8. On Friday he showed the Euro AI with a Gulf TS in the E Gulf on July 22nd. We’ll see.

I dont care if Nino peaks at 5.0...I really only care about the weather in my backyard. I mean, most weather weenies do. Any early thoughts for Michigan? Ive been thinking 2015-16 is a decent starting point but I've also been looking more into 1877-78.

When last winters cold was becoming imminent is when I first remember the bizarre slew of posts in different languages to say it wouldn't stay cold. When snowman cant find an English tweet to say warm is when winter lovers knew it was game on.

Unfortunately, TAO doesn’t have buoy data for 160W. It has them at 170W and 155W. For July of 2015, TAO does confirm that 30C didn’t make it as far E as 155W. But it did make it to 170W at 2N and 2S though not to 5S: 2N: avg ~30.0C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2S: avg ~30.2C https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst2s170w_dy.ascii But it was <30C (~29.8C) at 5S: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sy1/deliv/data3551221/sst5s170w_dy.ascii ———————————— How does July 2026 compare to July 2015 at 170W? 2026 at 2N: avg ~30.35C or ~0.35C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2n170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 2S: avg ~30.60C or ~0.40C warmer than 2015 https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data2259457/sst2s170w_dy.ascii 2026 at 5S: N/A..so can’t compare ——————— Summary: TAO confirms that 2026 is currently notably warmer (~0.4C) than July 2015 at 170W. But the avg tropical SST has also warmed since 2015. But it hasn’t warmed by as much as it’s closer to 0.25C warming, which tells me that July 2026 is warmer than July 2015 at 170W by 0.15C even on a relative basis.

1997-98 had a cold November with multiple snowfalls. It was definitely a front loaded winter.

We lived in Gardiner from late October 1985 thru mid-May 1998. August 1988 compared to averages for our 13 Augusts had 3 levels: 1-13: 74° nearly 8° AN 14-18: 65° average 19-31: 59° 3.5° BN Modest temps compared to the real hot spots (instrument was within some pines), but impressive averages.

Has anyone seen these before? They’re incredibly tiny orange big/insect…whatever. Sitting outside and feeling random spots of itchiness and I’ll see a super small orange looking thing and I’m guessing they bite or something because I’ll have a tiny red bite mark. No clue where they are coming from or what they are. They’re like those tiny red bugs that leave a blood dot but these are orange and even smaller.

Yeah. As I’ve gotten older, I yearn for more of these days.