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The models flip flopped at 200/300 hrs again and the inevitable cliff jumping returned.

it's going to rain

Currently 55 and sunny...Heading to 62ish. Warm week ahead for us. Not going to lie, i am ok with it. Need to get outside for some exercise.

What exactly am I supposed to be upset about this morning…? The better workable pattern is moving up closer in time. Here are the day 8 to 13 looks for the 5 day period on the 0z EPS, 6z AI EPS & 6z GEFS.

Are we sure about that?

Good morning Rob. I would have enjoyed the company of your father in law. ….. “preserve your memories, they’re all that’s left you” ….. as always ….

What is it with the damn clouds every day? We had beautiful sunshine this morning and now it's overcast again. Perhaps I'd not hate winter so much if we could get some real sunshine between storms/disturbances.

The GEFS have been shifting south for Friday night/Saturday (Jan 10). A few members take a surface low - possibly a secondary low - near or south of our region. A well timed shortwave in the northern stream might provide a just-suppressive enough flow to give us some wintry precipitation. It's kind of grasping at straws, but that's probably the next period to watch for a few runs even though this likely ends as some form of a cutter.

Yes but it’s just prior to the WSR 88-D Doppler radars being installed. So you don’t get the banding detail like you would even a couple years later. Just search for that storm in YouTube and you’ll see a ton of weather channel clips that show the radar loops.

Still no sun here, but blue skies approaching.

The distribution of the snowfall this month between ISP, PHI, and BOS is not what we typically see when Islip has a snowy 10”+ December. This is the first time since 1988 that ISP has 10”+ in December and either Philly or Boston doesn’t have at least 10” also. It’s why we may not be able to use the snowy December winter analogs that followed the other 10” December years on the list. This is due to the 10” at ISP being the first December with two 5”+ clippers that had narrower areas with heavy snow than benchmark coastal snowstorms that also affected Philly or Boston in the other snowy Decembers at Islip. So it will be interesting to see how the rest of the winter plays out at all three locations. All 10”+ snowy Decembers at ISP and the Boston and Philly snowfall 2009…ISP…25.3”….BOS….15.2”….PHI….24.1” 2002…ISP….16.0”….BOS….11.1”……PHI….8.4” 2003…ISP….15.5”…..BOS….21.5”….PHI….6.0” 2010….ISP….14.9”…..BOS…..22.0”…PHI…12.7” 1995….ISP…..13.3”…..BOS…..12.6”….PHI….7.3” 2025….ISP…12.4”…..BOS…..2.3”……PHI….4.5” 1969….ISP….12.0”…..BOS……12.6”….PHI….7.5” 1975…..ISP….11.4”…..BOS…..19.3”……PHI….7.5” 1963…..ISP…..11.0”….BOS….17.7”…….PHI….8.0” 2000….ISP…..10.8”….BOS….4.5”….…PHI…..10.5” 2008….ISP…..10.4”….BOS….25.3”…..PHI…..0.4” 1988…..ISP…..10.4”….BOS….3.7”……PHI…..0.4” The way we got our snowfall this past December was different from the previous cold and snowy Decembers. This was our first December since at least 1950 with two 4-8” snowfall clippers. Past snowy Decembers into early January had big KU systems with widespread snows over 10”. The models backing off the coastal system which was forecast for next week is telling us that the Northern Stream is still dominant. We haven’t had a widespread 25”+ season from EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK-ISP in over 30 years without at least one KU NESIS Cat 1 event or higher. The other thing is that all our recent winters since 21-22 had most of the seasonal snowfall focused into just one winter month. This is why I am concerned that absent a revival of the BM coastal storm track before this winter is over, that December will be our snowiest winter month this year and most spots from EWR to ISP finish with another below average snowfall season. Since it was something like a 50 year+ event to get two 4-8” snowfall clippers in a two week period in December. That really productive clipper pattern for snow has shifted and we still haven’t seen evidence for a big KU pattern developing. Whatever happens, this was our best December in terms of cold and snow in a long time which we are all very grateful for.

I’m just spoofing the sensible weather more than pattern. It’s not like we’re dumping -30C 850s into the Plains. We’ve been in a consistent nook of cold with systems that don’t have a lot of chance to amplify in time for us. So yeah…sensibly kinda like the 80s so far without any true brutal airmasses yet.

The sun has just come out here. This is normal for this area. I can drive around Frederick and head over to VA and get to Leesburg and it be sunny. Or head south in to Montgomery Co. and you hit the county line and it is sunny. Sometimes you can see light all the way around but Frederick is sitting under clouds. Guessing it is because we are in a valley.

bout .5"

Model mayhem at d6 - sounds rather normal tbh

And the negative epo and possible the PNA if the models are right going forward.

I was thinking it was more mid afternoon into evening in this area

Yesterday’s rain really fell apart, only picked up 0.03” after models and forecasts had shown around 1/2” up to the day before. Got down to 25.4 last night with very heavy frost this morning. Hope we can get some snow at the end of the month the next week looks brutal for winter lovers.

NAM and RGEM definitely slide that feature along south coast and across the canal.

Out of left field question - does a radar look exist for the blizzard of March 1993? All I have ever scene were two frames.

Honestly I'm looking forward to the upcoming thaw (I wouldn't call it a torch) but at the same time I am glad it is looking transient. Another very light dusting of snow this morning. Thankfully they did not come around and do another salt dump. These little snow events are ok but now that the holidays are past I can do without these nuisance events and the persistent cold and wind has become a bit much. I'll be ready do go again in about 10 days! In search of a KU this season but don't see the pattern for one showing up next two weeks at least. Based on the current medium to longer range guidance it looks the anomalies during colder periods would exceed those of the milder pauses in the transient pattern.

Mentally immature haha

It's probably the only thing we have going for us at the moment that points towards a snowier winter. Hopefully this year doesn't become the exception, but at least we have one analog on our side.

One of the most mild and snowless winters for many in the west half of the US. Snow and cold has been confined to Midwest and Northeast. The dry conditions for many roll on. Dry begets dry, and without wholescale changes in the west (a west coast trough), the west will continue to lack in the snow and cold department. There were several years like that in the 2010s, with a large western ridge and eastern trough and east US was going blockbuster with the snow and west was suffering from lack of skiing and lack of water. That's similar to this year

well ... there's a bit of an elephant in the room where 'it's happened before' ...etc, but this is a different beast - maybe...