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49.8 for the low, so close to first 40s of the season but 50 goes in the books. KMGJ just up the road did get officially into the 40s.

Looks like another season ending in the 4-5 sq million range for September average extent. Years like 2012 and 2020 dropping under 4million sq km have been the exception. So have years finishing over 5 million sq km like 2009, 2013, and 2014. So a very stable September minimum regime since the record declines back in the strong 2007-2012 dipole era. This reversal of the dipole has prevented us from exceeding the 2012 minimum so far. So we can say with confidence that 2007 lead to a regime shift in the sea ice. Extent and thickness have not been able to recover to the much higher pre-2007 ice. Even with multiple summer seasons with very favorable lower pressure circulation patterns for sea ice retention. The annual warmth in the Arctic has just been too strong to allow any type of recovery. 2024…..4.38 2023…..4.37 2022….4.87 2021……4.92 2020……3.92…2nd lowest 2019……4.32 2018…...4.71 2017……4.87 2016……4.72 2015…..4.63 2014…..5.28 2013…..5.35 2012…..3.60….lowest 2011……4.61 2010…..4.90 2009….5.36 2008….4.67 2007…..4.28 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL114546 A regime shift is an abrupt, substantial, and persistent change in the state of a system. We show that a regime shift in the September Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) occurred in 2007. Before 2007, September SIE was declining approximately linearly. In September 2007, SIE had its largest year-to-year drop in the entire 46-year satellite record (1979–2024). Since 2007, September SIE has fluctuated but exhibits no long-term trend. The regime shift in 2007 was caused by significant export and melt of older and thicker sea ice over the previous 2–3 years, as documented in other studies. We test alternatives to the traditional linear model of declining September SIE, and discuss possible explanations for the lack of a trend since 2007. Current Jaxa extent

56 degrees here this morning

Central Park has fallen into the 50s for the third time this month. The last August with three or more such days was August 2007 with six days. The three consecutive such days are the first such streak since August 20-22, 2007.

This forecast is going on the chamber of commerce masthead.

No need for AC but might have to turn on the humidifier. A doodle day.

I guess the silver lining as we approach the end of arctic sea ice melt season in the next 3 weeks is that although its record low, we aren’t as low as the all time record low in 2012: And still all systems go for a solid -IOD event:

55/58 here. Best news is I see the sun. Glorious!

Enjoying the cooler weather here as my area made it to #2 on the all-time 90° day list this year at 15 days. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jan through Dec Top 5 years for 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 17 0 2 2025 15 132 3 2010 14 0 4 1977 13 100 5 2021 12 0 - 2020 12 2 - 2012 12 3

49.8° We take in Jan

46.2 we take!

Just a little something for all the ruckus in here this month,

Only hit 71 today. The record low maximum temperature is 67 back in 1930. Still, mid-to-late August is just way too early for back-to-back days of overcast skies, for sure.

Erin’s ACE is now crossing 32 and is headed to ~34 for its likely total. That’s pretty impressive and it has brought 2025 ACE up to 12th highest for the date of the last 75 years.

2AM TWO: up slightly from 50/50 to 50/60: 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent ————— There’s lots of wx bb chatter that suggests this is already a TC. Hmmm.

Up from 60/80 to 70/80: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. 1. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent

Exhibit B to all the people that complain about the NHC naming every swirl.

https://x.com/WX1BOX/status/1958721985300594822

He's under team control through 2027 so maybe he pitches in 27 but I wouldn't be surprised If his career is over. They basically had to reattach his shoulder. It's a shame. He was so dominant before he had TJ in 2023. There's no high leverage arms left in the bull pen. Cano stinks. Lots of retooling to do. You can start to see the Forrest through the trees for next year. Need a starter or 2. Add a closer and a couple late inning options and a veteran bat. There line up suddenly looks alot better with Basillo and Beavers inserted in to it. I saw a stat yesterday that they have the 5th best record in baseball since May 24th. Almost for half a season. Just shows how awful they were to start.

yea not much more down here either.

5.57 since June 1. It’s dry

Come on now, that’s half the fun of the summer. The family jewels are as low as they’re gonna go and when ya sit down after a good steamy walk, ya gotta make sure your legs don’t accidentally crush anything!