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Just commenting on the fact that we didn’t used to get +30C warm pools in the EPAC off of Mexico and Central America during past strong -PDOs which drove this record early RI with Erick. So it’s the record and expansive WPAC warm pool driving this -PDO. Rather than in the old days when the -PDO cold pool off of California was much stronger and the WPAC warm pool weaker. It would be great if we had real time 2nd EOF PDO updates to do along with the traditional PDO.

12z Euro for Monday 2pm temps and wind. Has sea breeze but not as dramatically cool

Extreme heat warning now for the city

yes typically the sea breeze comes in somewhere between 4-6 pm

Even looks like showers are trying to pop.

12z EURO has 103 in NYC Monday but down to 84 by 8PM. On the 0z run the temp was still 98 degrees at 8PM.

Despite a huge amount of blossoms, our 3 apple trees had a terrible fruit set. The most prolific one, Haralred, will have a light crop, but the Ultramac will have very few and the Empire probably none. The only worse seasons were 2008, as the deer browsed all the buds thanks to a tall and solid snowpack (and the neighbor's cedar harvest ending in early February), and 2010 when the very early spring led to 3 mid-May mornings in the low-mid 20s. I blame this year's trouble on awful weather during the pollination time. We had 9 straight cloudy rainy days May 17-25 and the latter 7 days had average temps of 50/40 - maxima that week was 16° BN. Almost no pollinating insects were out and about during that time and by the 26th the blossoms had mostly fallen apart. There's always next year . . .

I’ll take the under on 96°

Where the hell did this come from??? This Afternoon A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 4pm and 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Light southwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

wow the last 100 at JFK occurred exactly a year (to the date!) later than NYC!

why has the west been more consistently hot (even near the west coast), did the climate models predict the west would be more affected by the heat?

90 at 1:30. Gonna be a long week ahead

89 here about 5 miles east of JFK

that 88 at JFK is very obviously wrong, if Farmingdale hits 101 and Islip hits 100, JFK is going to be AT LEAST 101 (there has never been a case when Islip and/or Farmingdale were 100 or higher and JFK was not.)

84 degrees with 48% rh makes for a delightful early summer afternoon. Scattered cumulus with a sw breeze at 4.

So it has become a great place for ice fishing then between the perch and bluegill...well thanks for responding. Some great memories there some 40 years ago.

Those cold SSTs off the California coast and Baja are -PMM. This -PDO regime has been nothing short of astounding

Toasty day at Hershey

Crazy to think there are people who actually wanted this type of weather.

1PM Roundup ACY: 89 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 86 TEB: 86 LGA: 85a ISP: 84 NYC: 84 TTN: 84

https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1936423864680275993

Yeah, mostly being driven by the record SSTs across the Western Pacific Basin. Still well above average SSTs off the West Coast Mexico and Central America. This boosted the recent record breaking early RI with Erick. Only a small area of cooler -PDO SSTs off the California Coast.

A number of charts and tables for reference for what appears likely to be a notable and perhaps historic bout of June heat: EFI: June 23, 2025: EFI: June 24, 2025: NWS Heat Risk: June 23, 2025: NWS Heat Risk: June 24, 2025: June Monthly Records: June 1-Day, 2-Day, 3-Day Records: Select Additional Data: June Extremes:

Anyways here's a summary of that one night I asked it to write and maybe explain the extreme acoustics I was exposed to. If anyone can point to any errors I would be grateful, as sometimes it can be tricky to pin point if not very knowledgeable In the evening hours of June 19th, 2025, Puerto Vallarta was situated in an exceptionally moist and unstable tropical environment. GOES-19 satellite imagery from Bands 13 (IR), 10 (mid-level water vapor), and Day/Night Cloud Microphysics RGB showed persistent deep convection offshore, with expansive moisture plumes extending across the Sierra Madre Occidental and into the Bay of Banderas. The atmosphere exhibited very high precipitable water values (greater than 2.5 inches), surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F, and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) exceeding 3000 J/kg - an ideal recipe for sustained convection and electrical activity. The area also featured an existing outflow boundary from earlier coastal storms lingering just offshore. Around local sunset (20:00-20:30), satellite and GLM data showed a dramatic intensification in lightning activity and new convective towers developing along a southward-moving cold pool outflow boundary from inland convection. This boundary, colliding with the pre-existing marine boundary along the coast, produced strong mesoscale lift. The differential heating between the land and the ocean (which had reached maximum contrast at nightfall) further enhanced low-level convergence. These combined effects triggered explosive vertical motion and renewed updraft cores, fostering rapid growth of cumulonimbus cells. Between 20:30 and 21:00 local time, observers reported lightning rates increasing from occasional flashes to nearly continuous discharges - as captured in GLM FED data and verified visually and audibly from the shoreline. The newly forced updrafts punched through already moist mid- and upper-levels, producing ice-rich supercooled regions ideal for charge separation. The result was highly electrified convective cells anchored along the outflow boundary intersection zone. Observers in high-rise buildings noted blinding continuous flashes and deafening cloud-to-ground strikes (positive CG dominated), likely linked to inverted charge layers due to elevated mixed-phase regions in tall tropical cumulonimbus. The perception of extraordinary thunder loudness and resonance was enhanced by both the proximity of tall cells within approximately 5-10 kilometers and the urban canyoning effect of reflecting sound between nearby high-rise structures. The saturated air and low-level inversion common in coastal nighttime profiles would further trap and amplify sound waves. In this instance, even heavy rainfall (recorded as torrential but inaudible for several minutes under thunder) was overshadowed by continuous shockwave-like thunderclaps - an auditory signature of multiple near-simultaneous positive CG discharges striking around and within Puerto Vallarta's coastal zone. The June 19th thunderstorm event in Puerto Vallarta exemplifies the dynamic interactions possible in tropical monsoon regimes when mesoscale boundaries, synoptic-scale moisture surges, and diurnal heating align. The explosive, continuous nature of lightning activity was not purely from the main convective complex offshore but from focused lifting at the outflow convergence zone in immediate proximity to the city. Satellite trends suggest this pattern could repeat in subsequent nights during peak monsoon phase. The event serves as an excellent case study of mesoscale convective boundary collision driving extreme nocturnal lightning outbreaks in tropical coastal environments. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

100 to ISP on the 12z GFS on Tuesday. Monday will have a sea breeze. Tuesday is the only real chance at 100