All Activity

I’ve moved onto Jan 24 - just one more punt. This was always the real window

Two separate 5 minute squalls came thru here today, one at noon, other around 2:30 pm. Both coated everything then done, but pretty as it fell. Currently 30.3/14.5 at 5 pm with W 12 gusting 22 winds. That is one thing we haven't missed on, gusts between 30-40 mph all day.

nobody believed the GFS. We were hoping for a miracle that it was seeing something the other models were not

@5:10 snow showers. 29.9

Light dusting here.

Its an odd run as several things go better for us. 1. The shortwave out ahead of it is further northeast which should help it amplify (unless for some reason this is too much spacing so it stays positively tilted?). T2. he wave spacing behind it also appears a bit better with more separation too. However, the reason it fails seems to be a difference around the hour 60-80 mark where there isnt quite the same level of vorticity maximum on the southern side of the lobe as it dives south so the trough doesn't quite consolidate and remains spread out. 18z on top and 12z on bottom. Can really see how this messes up the storm as it progresses east to our area where its all one big vort instead of being a southern maximum. Unfortunately, by remaining broader it also ruins our ability to go negative as quickly which really hurts us even more. 12z once again shows that difference with the additional southern closed isobar helping it tilt neg more. Hopefully this changes back but as a reminder this happens earlier in the run so we will need to watch for improvement here soonish to keep the chances of a good storm up.

The euro doesn’t exist?

Get this guy a pro met tag

So does this thread cover both scenarios? perhaps it should if it doesn't because there's a clear binary dependency going on with these

Gfs was on its own from the start. Faith in models 5+ days seems a fool's chase. I am guessing we will be fooled again soon. I am not mad at the models, I am mad for believing they may be correct.

Far far far cry from what it showed yesterday, and as much as it sucks the evolution of this storm actually makes a lot of sense. There's a potent closed low and by looking at H5 without anything else it looks sexy, but by the time the dynamics come into play it's far to late for us (which is often the case) and favors areas well to our NE. On the bright side, even some mood snow would be welcome after the recent warmup.

well surprisingly the southern stream bullied its way to us and we get snow. Sounds like we are punting 2 more weeks to this HECS

It's a shame that all the overrunning is modeled up in NW PA and NNY. If the GFS is right, there could be some good snow with that feature.

Just being 100% honest, this type of set up doesn’t excite me at all. Has fail written all over it for us. Such a limited track record of winning hoping for these to work in our favor. Literally need everything to go right, when we already struggle to hit in perfect patterns.

then when we do get cold and a southern stream the cold is historic and its congrats cancun.

Most of the time, whenever we start saying "we're gonna need ____ to do _____" we're already losing, lol

18z GFS on the board. That lead wave clears out and our trailer has more space to dig and tilt negatively. Allows easterly flow to kick in. Nice solid event verbatim.

Has been really bad this year. Less data due to noaa cuts? Less balloons going up or something? .

Congrats sema.

Skunk job. My storm better have some balls this run lol.

Gfs

holy cow do we not know how to win. Hopefully its an off run hiccup but they need to get rid of the model. Went from 15 inches to 0 in one full day

***MRX***.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Currently a few snow showers are moving northwest to southeast across mainly northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. These showers are producing quick bursts of light to moderate snow for several minutes before quickly moving out, even with temperatures in the mid to upper 30`s. It`s strong enough to cause a dusting of snow accumulations, especially in the higher terrain of the northern Plateau, but once the snow shower moves out anything on the ground quickly begins to melt. Expect these scattered snow showers to continue through the afternoon hours as there is still plenty of returns back into eastern Kentucky that still need to work their way eastward. In addition the winds out of the northwest are gusting pretty good in the higher elevations with numerous places likely seeing 30-40mph gusts. Will continue with the wind advisory for the East Tennessee mountains, especially with winds getting enhanced by the snow showers we`ll likely see periods just above advisory level winds. Quiet weather and a quick warm up to start the work week with highs climbing back into the 50`s for much of the Valley by Tuesday. Front will move through Wednesday along with precipitation. Expect the precipitation to start as rain for most, and temperatures will drop overnight and we switch over to snow. Won`t get too in the weeds with model diagnostics and snow amounts because the one consistent thing with this upcoming Wednesday/Thursday system is that the long range deterministic models do not have a good handle on it at all... Which is to be expected in a northwest flow event that can drastically change based on temp/moisture availability/forcing/etc. It would be a fools errand to pick your favorite deterministic model that shows 6" of snow in the central valley, or (on the opposite end) the model that shows no snow in the valley and just a dusting in the Appalachians... and expect them to verify. In northwest flow snow events it`s a good idea to wait until the higher resolution short term models and hourly models start to ingest the upcoming event. This far out a look at the probabilistic guidance is probably of more use. The 90/95th percentile shows some very extreme amounts, but if you look at the mean/median and the 25-75th percentiles a more traditional northwest flow event is the common sentiment. For example (do not take these values as a forecast) for Knoxville some of the deterministic data shows 5+ inches of snow, but the median/mean and box and whiskers data points to a 0.5-2" event, which aligns more closely to what typically happens in a northwest snow event. Also worth keeping an eye on is the timing of the transition to snow and the best forcing. If you want accumulating snow in the valley you traditionally want your best forcing and heaviest precipitation to occur overnight as during the daytime the sun really limits how productive the clouds are at ice nucleation. So long story short with what might occur on Wednesday into Thursday. LOW confidence in snow amounts (don`t believe just a single model) HIGH confidence snow will occur somewhere with the Cumberland Plateau, southwest VA, and especially the East Tennesse mountains having the best chance to see accumulations. If you have travel plans that involve going over the Appalachians or the Cumberland Plateau plan on possible snow accumulations on the road. Good news is this event looks to be a clean transition from rain to snow, and hopefully keeping the gross icy stuff to a very short window and any ice impacts minimal. Best thing to do right now is pay attention to the forecast updates as the models will likely continue to oscillate wildly in snow potential, and confidence should begin to increase when we`re about 72 hours and higher resolution models and hourly models start to come into play. As we head into the weekend cold temperatures remain in place with yet another possible snow maker looking to move through somewhere over the eastern US. If you thought models were handling Wednesday/Thursday poorly then you don`t even want to glance at the weekend. A lot of what might happen Saturday/Sunday will depend on what happens Wednesday/Thursday, but if you have any upcoming weekend plans keep an eye on the forecast for possible travel impacts in the higher elevations.

And we are back to cold and wind. That warm spell while enjoying the warmer temps did not help. Just got diagnosed with Bronchitis as a secondary infection from a Sinus Infection. Happy that my doctors office has weekend walk in hours. And glad it was not the Flu.