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Not much has changed from my thoughts locally over the past 24 hours. Hoping we hold steady, even as that dry slot influenced “custom screw zone” (cyclone, 2025) gets way too close for comfort. For a final call would expand the upper range and go 3-7”. Aside from total failure, I don’t see going below 3”. But imo would take a lot of things going right to get to 7”. Moving chips up a bit to 5.7”

Told ya the EURO was full of $hit. Looks just like some of the other guidance with a classic rt 128 deal.

Heavy snow and freezing fog at KSLK. First time seeing the SN+ ob at that station.

Very much so. Really want to see how it can handle synoptic events and long range patterns. Good early season test with next week.

Ironically, the GFS ensembles agree more closely at 500 than the Euro in general, and not with it's OP which is a massive WC trough/EC ridge.

It would be hard to be more different than the GFS is vs the Euro in the long range. The GFS is full torch, the Euro is full freezer.

Looking good. Curious to see how the lake will affect snow ratios in lakeside areas with the slightly onshore SSE flow, but thinking 1:10 average is reasonable. Final call 7.5” Lake Forest, I’ll be stationed here for duration of the storm. They got around 6” from the LES event a few weeks back so that would be over a foot total for Nov — quite impressive.

Euro is a N&W event similar to map above.

For the first storm of the season, coming out of a bad 2024-2025, all the signs seem to be good for IA, S WI, and N IL.

00z Euro... This is about as locked into 8+" as my area ever gets.

Something that should probably be used for this event in a lot of areas is snow depth to see a more realistic depiction of what you may measure on ground. Kuchera and 10:1 maps aren't accounting for the compaction and melting from this very wet snow that will likely occur and are probably overinflated. Yes 8-10in may fall but may not reflect on ground after melting and compaction.

That high running off Maine just as it starts is no good for 12/2. Further west by 350 miles is needed

Winter is a different animal, Rainers are pretty easy.

The 0z UKMET and 18Z ECM-AI squash the shortwave and yield very little precip. At 4.5 days out this possibility is still plausible.

Orange Warning - Snow Squall Issued: 11:42 PM Nov. 27, 2025 – Environment and Climate Change Canada Hazardous snow squalls expected through Saturday. What: Extremely hazardous travel conditions. Total snowfall amounts of 40 to 70 cm with locally higher amounts possible. Near zero visibility at times in heavy snow and local blowing snow. Intense snowfall rates of 5 to 10 cm per hour at times. Strong winds gusting to 70 to 80 km/h. When: Continuing into Saturday. The heaviest snowfall is expected tonight into Friday. Additional information: This will be a long duration event with snow squalls likely persisting into Saturday, particularly near Lake Huron. Strong westerly winds gusting as high as 70 km/h are also expected. These strong winds will reduce visibility to near zero at times in local blowing snow. ### Road closures are possible. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. I won't be getting those totals this go around, but south if that monster band stays there maybe. Kitchener and Hamilton still under it! Barrie also getting lacerated.

00z AIFS Op will be wetter in northern IL, upping total QPF above 0.75" compared to sub-0.75" the prior runs

Just noticed that there are still pretty big differences between the CMC and GFS days 4-5 at 500mb. The CMC actually doesn't look too bad aloft... that's a borderline snowstorm to pretty close N&W. The GFS upper levels look like they would support more rain and less snow than depicted. I feel like the GFS will end up more right... hope I'm wrong.

It's difficult to know how significant it is that the GFS op is significantly wetter and further west compared to the GEFS mean. The GEPS and EPS are also a bit southeast and drier. Obviously the averaging-effect decreases the mean precipitation the more you go out in forecast time. But the majority of the individual ensemble members are also well east of the GFS. The op also appears to be a bit faster than ensemble consensus... maybe in response to the sharp Great Lakes shortwave/vortmax that is at the leading edge of the trof. I suspect the op (maybe higher resolution?) is more accurately resolving the shortwave progression than the ensembles. I expect the ensembles to play catchup, and I don't think we're done trending yet.

How much snow for EWR on Tuesday?

NNE

i would wait to call 12/2-3 dead until the nov 30 storm happens. 36 hours out from then and there's still lots discrepancy between models. indy doesn't know whether they're going to get 8 inches of snow or just plain rain rn

Ukie is a light event, but I didn't bother to look how it got there.