All Activity

GEFS really leaning into the tucked solution as we get closed. At hour 84, the OP run that just annihilated most of us was well west (basically onshore) of where the offshore cluster is.

Yes, there were recon data yesterday at 18z and 00z in the eastern Pacific. Looks like some recon data is scheduled again for 00z this evening.

I want summer. I love warm weather but spring here is horrible. Especially April.

If I was there I’d probably sell the gfs pretty easily. I know easier said than done.

Crazy model runs for the mid-atlantic. GFS has 30" for DC and the Euro 2". 3-4 days out now.

At this lead time that is pretty normal. Once you get inside 3 days it’s better to lean on operational models. Of course the GFS is making that hard here lol

Wait till at least friday night to write this storm off. Still early for now. This could still be maybe a strip of 3 to 6" for the region which is still fine to close out the winter

That is this decade since it seems to alternate. 90s a lot of March snowstorms. 2000s very few. 2010s a lot of March Snowstorms. 2020s not many That being said there is no reason the coastal plain cannot get one this decade.

If euro shows anything that resembles what GFS just showed, this forum will lose their minds!

I mean, this is crazy that it looks like this

1000%....I keep rolling my eyes at the "this whiff looks better aloft posts"...no offense, I'm sure it's perfectly sound and valid analysis by great mets and hobbyists alike, but that simply won't cut it. I said this earlier, but notice how all of the non-GFS guidance is a display of a thousand and one ways to miss...yea...they're different, and are waxing and waning....OFFSHORE. This isn't day 6.

You guys keep me young.

GWDLT

2-3 and 1-2?

Yeah we can at least agree with him this time that he’s not getting much from this one. Maybe an inch or two on Saturday though depending on mesoscale stuff.

Ya I'm in the same boat .. I'd take a wind driven 4-8" snowfall to end the season though.. As is we need a miracle to get a big dog like GFS has over DC - IF EURO doesn't join us at 12z then it's virtually impossible IMO

All these coastals have had stupid double lows or conflicting convection out east.

I've kind of lost respect for ensembles a little bit. Basically they just mirror the regular model runs just more spread out

Anthony, you go back and forth wayyyy to much brother..... you need to take a breather LOL

What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation?

The problem is we need more than decent changes at h5 on models like the Ukie that still result in a whiff. We needed that 24-48 hours ago. We’re getting close enough now that having the GFS on an island is an obvious red flag. Euro is gonna have to come north west solidly for me to entertain a large hit.

That was suppose to happen an hour ago

Thank god we don't live in DC - talk about high stakes

Unless euro gets onboard bye bye storm bye bye winter

It could be one the worst fails of its existence.