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Yet another snowy evening out there. Everything's dusted up pretty good - maybe 1/4". From radar I suspect parts of western or northern Morris county have accumulated 1/2" - 1" this evening. These minor events help soothe the snowstorm deprivation angst.

Easy is not a word I've used frequently the last few years... I do like the tight low/mid level thermal gradient, and know if we can force enough convergence into that gradient, it would produce a decent snowfall? But I need to see consistent guidance trending that way. If I do, I'll move from a general 1 to 2 to a call to a 2-to-4-inch forecast, biased east and southeast. I'll be working from the Cape this weekend, so I expect to see snow even if CT underperforms.

Snowing lightly here now

The best are those in SNE that are actually positive. Every year since 2022. While I sit back like the fat kid on Stand By Me watching them puke all over each other in the pie eating contest.

Yeah it looks like we’re saturating a little quicker than some upstream areas based on MRX radar.

I will be in attendance

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

Split open and melt

Sort of steady light snow now. Took probably 30-40 minutes of returns to get flakes down here.

Hopefully New York City can sneak in 4 inches of snow by the end of the month although that is looking increasingly unlikely especially with the big warm-up coming after the 20th. Statistics don’t lie and Decembers that usually feature at least 4 inches of snow in New York City have a high chance of producing average or above average snowfall for the rest of the season. Central Parks measuring has been consistently terrible over the past few years even more so then it had been in the past so I wouldn’t be surprised if they barely record an inch from the snow that is coming on Sunday.

Check this out. The official Australian RMM MJO for Dec 9th has already been released: after the Dec 3-7 phase 8 went surprisingly (to me) to Dec 8th’s very weak phase 6, Dec 9th comes in at very weak phase 5! Holy smokes! I still think it may retreat back to phase 8 later, but that remains to be seen:

Right when the storm started to disappear on the majority of guidance this afternoon is when the national weather service upped their forecast for my area to 1 to 3 inches from less than 1/2 of an inch. I’m super confused. They must have information I don’t have access to.

Yeah good luck with that

Trend line baby. Toes in the water. Weenie in the sand. No need to worry, I got Wolfie in my hand…life is good today.

The warmth is shrinking..as we knew it would. It’s been the trend all autumn.

I love the Euro. No matter what. But, Mid Atlantic is gonna get NAM'MED and shellacked.

December 25th is right around the corner

Ya…no it doesn’t. And it Ended pretty quick this year too.

I was gonna say…it’s pretty saturated according to what some METS were saying yesterday.

I’m not sure it can get cold enough to postpone an NFL game.

It comes sooner and lasts longer every year.

No dry air to overcome

Warm ground really hurts. These sudden plunges into a snowy pattern seem like a win but don't allow time for the ground to freeze properly. Jan '24 ground was so warm our solid 10" storm was down to 6" just 3 days later when the 2nd storm hit. I never realized GHD-1 melted off so quickly over there.

Pretty much done but got 2-3 inches from the first system. Whitened up the bare sports from the melting and rain on Tuesday. Can't complain.

Could it also be 1", with the dry air eating away the first hours of precip?