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Essentially the pattern is this at 12z. A slp slides into the NW(just ignore the runs where it stalls, reforms, slides to the southwest in perpetuity, etc). When that strong lp slides across the Rockies, the counter-clockwise rotation forces a strong chinook which races eastward. As the slp slides into the Plains, it drags extremely cold air behind it. That cold then slides eastward. Wash, rinse, repeat. If the SLP stalls over the NW(likely feedback), then it pumps a crazy ridge in the east. Ensembles are washing this pattern out. Now, I fully admit the SER could out-duel the incoming cold. But the corrections at 12z seem to infer a very back-and-forth pattern which would feature NW flow snow, severe, record warmth, and possible record cold. Wild West.

Coming out Sunday to ski. Should be some great conditions Hoping they have some of the East ridge open by then.

me knowing i'm getting at least a few inches of snow Sunday

I am not convinced of this warm up 1Euro and Euro AI both have a winter threat around Christmas

Next week is probably a loss, but theres still some chance for atleast some overrunning leading up to Christmas. Nice little system christmas eve on the euro and deep cold christmas day.

Yeah, I definitely hear you, another nudge SW would add more confidence but having the Euro basically hold+, is great. We'll be at Deep Creek this weekend but rooting hard for DC.

-Ripping .

It's [looks out window] still liquid downstream of the BU Bridge but was frozen upstream where it's narrower/shallower/less windy at least before the brief warmup/light rain (I haven't been across it in that area since). Probably too much thermal mass and wind to freeze that over without a couple of cool, calm nights, although the wind is probably cooling it nicely. I think the last time it froze in Boston in December was late 2017, but then melted out once that cold snap abated a few weeks later ("abated" being a nice way of saying "2 inches of rain at 60°"). The all-timer was 2015, of course, when it froze in early Jan and melted out on something like April 3.

Nah. It will be muted. It wants to be cold this December. Couple more runs and the models will spit out a white Christmas. Yes, yes ithey will.

Same. If we get more than an inch, I would be super pleased

The 12z Euro continues the 12z suite trend of muting or erasing entire sections of the warm-up. More posts to follow here...I will just edit this post. Run-2-run changes for maybe a not so random day...ensembles don't reflect this yet, but the trend is pretty hard to ignore. I wouldn't quite call it a flip as plenty of warm persists, but the standing wave - poof.

About time too.

I think this winter is a second half winter for you all. Middle and West have far outdone NE TN during the 2020s which is wild...even Knoxville has. Generally, the cold finds you all at some point during recent La Nina climo. I think u all will be good.

It's been snowing lightly here since around 7am. Seeing the heaviest rates of the day right now, but looking at radar it should be coming to an end very soon. 34.7°/30.1°

Glad you're back. I'll probably keep the 1-2" forecast we have but wouldn't be surprised if this trends a bit better.

Yup. That's hanging in the back of my mind. It's keeping me from being super pumped about any of this. I'm in a weird space of happy, but ready to accept probably failure.

The first 10 days of the month at KBOS are 38.5 / 24 / 31.3, and that's underselling since there were a couple of days which with "highs" in the 30s which occurred just after or before midnight. Coldest start to the month since 2007.

Isn’t it 50’s Wed/ Thurs

From what I saw on the enso thread the most extreme anomalies are supposed to be further south and west of the east coast. So I’d be more on board with 50s.

Lowlands special lol

Kuchie is so marginally better for some/worse for others I didn't think it was worth any further damage to my reputation by posting it, but by popular demand: It's a nice run. I'm still honestly not super satisfied being on the SW end of this. Feels a bit like a heartbreaker. Would like another 50mi SW jump, not just to put me in the jackpot, but to add some fail insurance. Very little runway here

I believe Kuchera is slightly worse lol

Yeah could be a C-1” deal. Wish we’d get a 2-4” clipper for once.

I will be driving back and forth to S VT on Saturday to pick up our kiddo. Can't make it. I will try to post pics from Woodford VT

I firmly believe Hammer has the right idea with a few inches up to I-90