All Activity

yes ...i does, in the winter when the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs shits in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water

Yesterday's action:

I thought toys would be worse but it’s quite nice out. 77 at 12:45 with a 10 mile breeze that is refreshing.

Good call. My lawn gets mowed tonight.

NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99

I thought the GFS was schooling the Euro as some thought?

On a different topic are we going to get a big northern lights display from this? https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-satellite-extreme-solar-flare-us-states-blackout-map-2088388 Large parts of the United States faced a radio blackout on Thursday following a strong solar flare from the sun. The "extreme ultraviolet flash" was captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The solar flare, categorized as X-class in scale—the highest scale, was triggered by an active region of a sunspot on June 19 at 11:50 p.m. UTC. Radiation from the X1.9 blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, leading to a loss of signal at frequencies below 25 Megahertz (MHz). Amateur radio operators, especially in Hawaii, may have noticed the signal loss. Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation from the sun. The most powerful explosions in the solar system, they can can contain as much energy as a billion hydrogen bombs, according to NASA. Solar flares are classified according to their intensity, with X being the highest on the scale. X-class solar flares can cause planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

So is the MCS on or off ?

wow what the heck was going on in 1949 lol, was that the 1940s version of 2010? I wonder if JFK had many 100 degree days that summer, I know they had three in a row in 1948. Come to think of it, 1948 and 1949 sound a lot like 2010 and 2011....

Prepare to have your tastebuds slabbed.

to be fair EWR was also hotter than NYC before the foliage problem happened (I'm referring to 1988, 1991 and 1993). But we can use just EWR data if you prefer. Just going by EWR data, 1949 and 1993 have the most 100+ days It makes me think we need lower heights to reach triple digits back then than what we need now (because of more moisture in the air now.)

this is exciting as the two models taking turns forecasting a 30 inch snowstorm for us vs 3 inches of rain lol

Sunday has to be watched closely though. Either with MCS timing or if the MCS is north any outflow acts as a boundary but that is about as volatile of an airmass you'll see here with tremendous shear.

The question though is, at least for our part of the country, do we need a stronger 500mb ridge to achieve 100 degrees than we needed in, for example, 1944 or 1948 or 1949 or 1953 or 1955 or 1993?

yes and weighing them relative to each other is also important (as is sometimes applying them to one part of the season vs another.)

For any FFA alums out there, you likely recall the Blue Corduroy jackets. Next week is the state convention for FFA in Raleigh. Imagine 102 in a corduroy jacket walking the streets looking for a hotdog vendor.

Ain't no way I'd be out on the water with a storm that imminent. But great pictures nonetheless!

How did they calculate regional , continental 500MB heights then ? how large was the network of radiosondes and balloons then vs now? I havwe to go ovack to the 2001 heat dome in August and the 2011, 2013 how did they stack both were >594 DM from my recollection .

78/59 with a nice breeze. Fantastic. Heading out to do some yardwork before the heat dome arrives.

Wonder if he got into the bears cage?

His friend is waiting outside .........

UHI is too shallow and localized to influence the 500mb heights across the Northern Hemisphere. These record breaking ridges have been occurring across all areas of the Northern Hemisphere including the oceans and relatively uninhabited land areas. Just look at all the record 500mb heights on the Caribou, Maine balloon soundings in recent years just like our area. Their records go back to 1948.

They call that “storm chasing”

What's the big deal? Your friend's hand crawls up your leg...why not a spider?

To be fair all those tens of thousands of feet tall vertical cities everywhere have added UHI to the entire atmospheric column