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Indeed it is

I'm interested to see the 12z Euro.. starts in a few minutes

Most likely outcome yes. Actually most likely is little to no accumulation or all rain but too early to say what the best possible outcome is

That’s very relevant for a ton of us. Congrats everyone!

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time.

Euro being east should be a caution flag for amped solutions. So far this upcoming system has been behaving quite well. Models are jockeying for position so fade the big swings.

12z Ukie smokes BR and west

Usually anything from like 1-3 to 3-5 is most common. Some rare instances where 6-7 has occurred for the coast like February 2008 November 2018 December 1990 but those usually consist of one of two scenarios. Weak waves vs amping lows or the system approaches more from down in the Carolinas vs the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.

Correct. For me I still like watching the approaching rain/snow line and seeing how much accumulation we get before we flip. Sometimes up to 8 before a flip to drizzle occurs.

Perhaps too early to drill into details but a flatter wave correction toward middling low depth will tend to parallel the flow with the isobaric layout … basically an ENE vs a NNE/NE with cf genesis … that’s going mean snow tot headaches for eastern zones.

Wake me when snow solutions pop up 24hrs before it starts

Happy Thanksgiving to ALL!

good luck trying to figure this out - like I have been saying the GEFS,EPS and Euro AI never had an amped up system to begin with this is still 5 days away there will be more changes in the models,,,,,,,,,,,,

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!! The 12z CMC looks close to something good late in the run.

The meteorologist who posted that tweet is actually a huge cold/snow weenie and usually finds any excuse to go cold/snowy. He is actually the furthest thing from a warmista. As far as the MJO going into a clean phase 8 with amplitude, without any destructive interference from the standing wave by the Maritime Continent….I’ll believe it when I see it. We have played this game before with MJO phase 8 (23-24) and we lost badly. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but as of right now, color me skeptical

128 gradient

whiffing is still on the table sir

don't those suck for our area, usually 3-5 inches and than either turns into rain and or icy in suburbs. Never an all snow event

Not a snowball's chance in hell. Best possible outcome for central park is a couple slushy inches---> rain.

12z UKIE crushes!

I like how its a more traditional coastal look than just moisture flow from the gulf

Seems like the higher end totals may depend o solely on instability and thunderstorm like advection that happens locally.

It may be Twitter bait. But that’s not because they don’t go out far enough. Rather, it’s that that this Tweet’s runs are “bias corrected” versions, which have more often than not not been making the correct adjustments based on my following them. Here are the corresponding non-bc versions, which are very bullish for phase 8 within their runs: 11/26 ext GEFS: 8 day long phase 8 mid Dec (12/13-20) with a potential 2nd move into phase 8 a few days after this ends: 11/26 ext EPS: extremely bullish 15 day long phase 8 (12/13-27), which would be 2nd longest of all time on record for any month: