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The -NAO is the story if it unfold the way modeling has shown it for the past 48 hours. I don't think it will mean a trough 100% of the time over the EC, but it "could" force the storm track well south as we have see on overnight runs. The 0z Euro and now 6z GFS.....what a turn of events.

Yes it is... Torch no longer in the cards!!!

That will be one thick pack of ice when it refreezes.

Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) has demolished the old record for lowest start to December. That record was set just last year.

Enjoy the last day of snow today. There's still about 4"......bare lawn tomorrow afternoon. At least we have this. Friday Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then rain likely. High near 56. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Weeklies saying we have to wait doesn’t mean I was waiting

Yikes, current P&C has about 1.5” of rain for tomorrow. Keeps going up

Already have seen this same retrogression of said ridge axis 2 other times in the past couple of weeks. LR ridge in OV ends up verifying out in the Western Plains/Eastern Rockies. Nice to see.

That image screams for this.

Ridge keeps backing up west!!!

Literally yesterday some of you were talking about waiting until the back half of January lol

As long as we're not in the orange or red lol

6z gfs showing a little bit of everything for that period. It will be interesting to see how this evolves or not.

Interestingly both GFS AI and Euro AI both almost look like ensembles for the same period. Since they are machine learning models using (presumably and I could definitely be wrong) the continuity of typical patterns, I wonder if the AI models skew less amplified in the longer range, since dramatic and amplified events are somewhat rare? Would this make the AI models less useful in the medium to longer ranges until they have ingested more datasets of times where large blocks are "bullying" (quoting griteater) the pattern? How many significant, blocky patterns have wee seen since we started running AI models to give them datasets? I would say not many over the regions depicted below, but don't often look at blocky patterns anywhere else, so there could be some confirmation bias at play.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 147 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-190915- /O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0016.251219T0600Z-251220T0600Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton- Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Selinsgrove, Ridgway, Lewisburg, Coudersport, Wellsboro, Mount Union, Renovo, St. Marys, Huntingdon, Trout Run, DuBois, Harrisburg, York, Mansfield, McConnellsburg, Mifflintown, Williamsport, Berwick, Lebanon, Emporium, Gettysburg, Hershey, Sunbury, Pottsville, Clearfield, Philipsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Warren, Newport, Danville, Bloomsburg, Shamokin, Lancaster, Bradford, Carlisle, Laporte, Lewistown, and State College 147 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects including holiday decorations. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Might be doable. Previous runs had that ridge centered more in Iowa. It's already ticked west a little bit. Maybe that continues.

You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now

January 1977 had record cold monthly means throughout the southeast. Even Miami and the Bahamas had snow flurries! Here in northern VA I remember a weeks-long period of snow cover but with a thick coating of ice - so you couldn't really play in it or build snowmen. The only areas to excel in snow that year were the lake-effect belts. Buffalo was absolutely isolated from the rest of the world for a time, with cars and trucks invisible under the drifts.

I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge.

6z GFS shows a similar evolution waaaaayyyyyy out in fantasy land to 0z Euro for NC and southside VA. When people root for NAOs to impact the pattern, that's the sort of thing I want.

That dark red that pops up over Baffin Island on last nights EPS is quite appealing.

All of Pittsburgh trails are open Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Torch my #%#!!!

A little video from Sunday https://www.instagram.com/reel/DSZOkzcgPmc/?igsh=MXdteWI3eWp6OHR6cw==