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Gale like winds on top of meadow mountain. 30F with occasional light snow right now. Wood stove going on blast.

Totally agree. I’m proceeding with extreme caution this winter but the pattern/setup looks very good at the moment for the first 1/3 of December at least.

One thing I have learned the last 15 years being with AmericanWx..... Ji doesn't sugar coat anything!!

There is a reduction from the 12z, but relative to the 6z and 0z, looks fairly similar

Might want to get a snow gun and make artificial snow while the getting's good!

42 mph here

Happy to report delightful refreshing dewpoints in the low 30s today, a delightful refreshing northerly breeze at 17mph and highs only around 60. It is so hard to believe after warm humid temps ever since late Feb. Tonight down to 38 with 30 dews. I might walk down Main St with only a soaking wet t-shirt on and swimming trunks at 3am! I might even sneak into the fish pond! Cool weather is SO INVIGORATING!

If it were Christmas Eve instead of Thanksgiving Eve, the 60F isotherm would be 100 miles north.

Yep... There are always going to be folks complaining about a particular event due to their own backyard outcome, but it's nice having a base pattern that will give trackable events for much of December...

Hopefully the 18z EPS won’t show as much of a reduction in QPF…we’ll see I guess.

It’s pretty cold in the low levels on that depiction. Pretty wide area of sleet. It’s a really sloped system. But these are details that are mostly irrelevant right now.

we can't have our cake and eat it too...

This worked out reasonably well

Down to 31 with light snow!

Definitely seems like we needed one with what's going down here right now. I don't know how hard the winds are blowing but they're blowing well over 25mph at this point, maybe even twice that with some of these gusts.

Guessing it didn’t get posted - very lax modding her now

I hear ya I'd bang it.

I don’t think that overall HRRR solution is too far off, but I would shift everything 10-15 miles ENE in terms of its placement. The RGEM and hi-res NAM are in decent enough agreement on band placement that I’d expect something close to those solutions.

Power is back. Thanksgiving is still on... for better or worse.

that was a good one. that is my measuring stick for a trackable threat. If the 18z euro or 6z euro have it..its close enough to take our interest to the next level

welcome to your 25th year on the message board and your still spouting the same stuff about models lol. You are probably 80 by now so i am going to give you a pass!

18z Euro ends at 144 hours, but this run looks to be juicing up more in line with recent GFS runs.

This is it. 6-8", especially in November, is a big win. Hopefully sets the tone of the rest of the winter!