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6z Euro still looks good for 1 to 3 inches snow chance on Sunday am.

It's not like I was biased towards NE cold and snow, either...I think the work reflects that. Thus far I have been too warm, and by a significant margin. Last year I was also too warm.

Sitting at a sweet 1/2" here. Moderate elevation means nothing in this area.

We've been in the screw zone for several years now. The last couple weeks have been comical and sad for our area. Ready for reshuffling.

I managed a trace of snow. Haywood County schools are on a 2 hour delay today.

Lucky SOB-

Picked up a nice dusting here at the house overnight and actually saw more in town as I drove in to work this morning. Guessing there was maybe 1/2in or so at one point during the night here in town just judging by what’s left on rooftops and grass.

Someone who thought moving to Frederick County would mean more snow. Womp womp.

yeah, seasonal forecasting is really awfully tough. i appreciate the effort that you put into it... i help put together seasonal / LR stuff for work and it is not easy whatsoever. luckily even laymen know that the error is high after a couple weeks

It’s possible that some areas to our south with the strong cold departures through the 10th could finish December closer to average with the coming warm up . This also fits the pattern since at least the 1990s of the 2nd half of December warming at a faster rate than the 1st half in our area.

Who are you? Ice Princess? Lol

I will tell you right now, there is no way my seasonal sequence will work out entirely...I understand that going in. A seasonal forecast as detailed as mine is never going to be as nuanced as the actual pattern that evolves....it's akin to expecting a weekly product to nail the deformation zone for a storm at day 16; it just isn't practical. I hope to get the general idea...while I said turning warmer in the 2nd half of December, and then colder again mid January, there is no way it will work out entirely like that. I'm sure there the timing will be off, and there will be some colder periods interspersed during the advertised warmth.

Mele Kalikimaka

i don't know why this entire forum doesn't have him on ignore. the next time he/she makes a genuine post will be his/her first.

Honestly wasn’t a huge fan of the tick north. I’d take it obviously but would rather have some more wiggle room

it's because he's a troll and he sucks

yeah, i was wondering, because I wouldn't say that there's been a standing wave out there... looks like typical MJO propagation to me we'll finally have legit WHEM forcing in late Dec, which should have us break colder into early Jan. just getting some IO/MC influence right now that will wash out, hence the warmer pattern later this month

17 with light snow in Wolf this morning. I have 2" on my board, but the wind is blowing it around so who knows how much has actually fallen so far. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Merry Torchmas!

@qg_omegaReally not sure what the point of trolling my hedge is? If I end up wrong, I'll admit it, as I always do. I think if we did a poll, the board would overwhelmingly reflect that. All kidding aside, everyone who takes the time to articulate their thoughts into a cohesive forecast is going to get it wrong at times, otherwise no one would ever learn anything. It seems patently silly to mock said efforts on a forum that is designed to be an outlet for such endeavors.

Wasn't a formal forecast but it was the right idea. Once the front winter onset terminates to inevitable warmup (whenever that happens ...) the question will become, does the aft half get back to business. My present thinking is still leaning on reduced hours and a lot of unscheduled signs flipped to 'Sorry we're closed' (lol). I would never suspend January. Not yet anyway (sniff). But sputtering into an early spring...? why not. One of these flower Februaries.

I think he is referring to anomalies.....obviously the west PAC will always have more convection and VP as a baseline because it's warmer (Walker Cycle)...this is why there is such a high volume of super typhoons out there.

I can't wait for the cold to relax and it warms up, as I think that will offer up more snow...at least for my area.

I had it beginning to shift around the middle of the month, with January starting milder and then shifting cold.