All Activity

Let’s keep it rolling. Why not. Per Lot: EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT TOP-DOWN SATURATION WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, REACHING THE I-39 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THE CHICAGO METRO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING QPF GENERALLY IN THE 0.15-0.20 INCH RANGE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCH IN THE BROADER ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE SOUTH OF I-80. MEANWHILE, A 3KM DEEP DGZ INTERSECTING WITH MOST OF THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER RATIO SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO EVEN 20:1. PUTTING THIS TOGETHER, A WIDESPREAD FLUFFY SNOW EVENT OF 1-3" NORTH OF I-80 AND 2-4" SOUTH OF I-80 APPEARS LIKELY. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE 600 HPA F-GEN NOTED ABOVE WILL FOCUS A NARROW (COUNTY-WIDE) WSW TO ENE ORIENTED BAND OF HIGHER QPF AND HIGHER SLR (>20:1) SOUTHEAST OF I-55 IN THE EVENING. IN THIS CASE, IT IS FEASIBLE THAT A NARROW 4-6" BAND OF SNOW WILL BE REALIZED. FINALLY, WHILE NOT EXPECTED (10% CHANCE), SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT OF A DEVELOPING MESO-LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT COULD BACK CLOSE TO THE ILLINOIS SHORE AS THE LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS SSE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO THE IL/WI LINE.

First sub-40 high

Just got back to Cary from the (then) sunny coast in the mid-60s. Left in shorts. What a shock coming back to 50 and cold rain.

Just realized this map reflects the PWM/BOX/ALY watch areas.

Given that Greenland Ridge and trough orientation, the 10th to the 11th may be something to watch. Based on EPS.

That map just gave me the bubble gut

Where you are in Worcester can make a big difference. Airport, e.g., can be way better than the DCU.

I’m getting the sense that if I live in Worcester, I’d like to see BOS and PVD get something measurable. Otherwise this is way too close to the rain/snow line for comfort.

Slide that snow line 25-50 miles SE and it’ll be about final

Seems reasonable

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

Who cares. I'm a weenie at heart and love busting your chops from time to time.

Similar.

As a truck driver, I can say that you're a lucky person. In my profession, I wish I could be off until March 1. I would enjoy snow storms much more with a winter layoff.

Yes. But from a practical standpoint with some almost guaranteed mixing the flash freeze post system might make it very difficult.

Reggie is 0.68" all snow up here.

Reggie is solid N and W of 128. Not far from RRFS.

ICON and RRFS are south of 12z

Don't you have 24 hours? That's what most towns are. And LOL at the name showing 6 to 8 inches in westfield, but none in Simsbury where I'm covering my friend's plow route. Definitely won't happen because I'm really not looking forward to plowing this storm

ISP will probably finish November with a positive temperature departure.

Probably can get company for your night for less than that!

Active and cold = I can dream.

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last I heard the NAM may run for another year or so. Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events. The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels. The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.

RRFS Road Runner Forecast System? meep meep

I was just looking at that. 52$ a night. What could go wrong lol