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Charlotte does always seem to have a 'forcefield' around it that makes these events not outprorm and 3-5 inches is still a HUGE snowfall for snow starved Charlotte. 9 times out of 10 (likely more) it pays to be conservative with snowfall estimates here. But I will go with 6-8 - I am liking everything I am seeing on the models and the setup.

A little mid-week action upcoming, huh?

8

We’ve had multiple accumulating snows here this (meteorological) winter. Parts of the RIC metro are just about at average for our climate. We’ve had more than one season of being shut out or close to it in the last 10 years. The “big dog” snows just keep getting rarer. We do have ways to win with them, but I think this winter shows what our expectations should be.

It's 8 inches of compressed snow and sleet (harder than concrete) plus a week of record cold. a generational weather event in a municipality that doesn't control its own budget. public transit is barely functional (bus lanes are blocked by mountains of ice) so people are understaffed. Plus it's dangerously cold out. i'm not sure what people are expecting. wednesday and thursday, i had to walk 2 miles to work with my dog on my back in a backpack because there was no one to watch him. great exercise though!

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping. Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

Overnight low of 8 here is one less than yesterday's 9, and one above the 7 low for the season. Anemometer was spinning slowly most of the night.

A lot more work from home now since covid. Honestly, a lot more have moved to this area to get out of the city with remote work

Sun is out today. While Chicago sees LES, this will be our first day in 17 days with no snow falling.

The RGEM has the look of a model locked in, fairly small shifts over the past 4 runs.

One more…LGA -7/-20 and 35kt sustained lol LGA,1943-02-15 13:00,METAR LGA 151300Z AUTO 29335KT M22/M29 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP196 T12171289

Been through these ULL storms several times in the upstate; GSP west typically ends up in the losers bracket. The precip cut off (gradient) from west to east is typically severe. I have seen a 6 inch delta from GSP (eastern boarder of Greenville Co) to the Greenville/Pickens county line many times. Expecting the same sort of gradient this storm. Add in the leeside downslope dry spot that has been showing up on many of the model, I see a big bust for parts of the upstate.

Im still going with 3-5 inches for charlotte. I refuse to believe in more until its on the ground.

Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now. I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.

Greenville has a great shot at a top 5 daily snowfall record. Even a chance at the all time record of 13" set in 1896

Models are all over the place with low pressure placement. Definitely some higher stakes for the Cape.

Especially this kind of snow.

ICON north hahaha

FV3 was beautiful

A lot of the short range models are starting to look like each other. And then there’s the NAM lol .

ICON delivered another banger

1 inch of snow in Atlanta proper shuts down Atlanta

6” in Raleigh is always aggressive. In this setup it’s easily doable.

Still snowing on the coast

Light snow falling down here. Not much virga. Radar returns are light but it's making it to the ground. Not expecting much. 1-3 or something like that.