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132.9 Final ACE

I feel my position is any short term(again on a global time scale)warming that is, or may be currently happening, is insignificant, and will revert back the other way, just as any cooling also did. It’s these fluctuations that is our climate. I do not feel it is caused by us. And the globe has done this for eons before we were here(and on a massive scale at times) , and will continue to do it long after we are gone. That’s my feeling. Nobody has to agree. I do not bring it up. Others do, and bust balls..and that’s cool too, but I don’t try and change anybody’s mind…believe and feel what you want. It’s all good.. getting out of work, and going to drink some beer now. Hoping for a fast start to this years winter. Have a great evening gentlemen.

Really? That's interesting. Some of the locals I've talked to say they experience more ice than snow here. I'm closer to Fort Worth. I think 2" here shuts down the entire city lol. Maybe we'll great a freak storm like Houston did last winter.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface cold front will be off the Atlantic coast Monday morning with a deep parent upper trough expected to pivot overhead by early Tuesday. Strong cold air advection is expected behind this front Sunday night through Monday evening on blustery NW winds gusting up to 35 mph. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be hard to get out of the 40s with wind chills in the 20s at night and mid 30s during the day. Accumulating snow showers are expected for areas west of the Allegheny Front. High Froude numbers on Monday associated with the strong NW flow indicate potential for snow showers to make it well east of the mountains Monday afternoon, possibly dusting the ground in a few places. Over the mountains, two to fourth tenths liquid water equivalent amounts combined with high SLRs of 18 to 1 may yield snow totals of 3 to 7 inches over the favored upslope areas such as Bayard WV and western Garrett County MD. As of right now, it still looks like an advisory level snow event with a small chance of meeting warning criteria.

We filled the main discussion thread with dozens of posts about snowmobiles when the weather was boring a few weeks ago. No one was yelling "Bring that fucking shit to the banter thread!!"...

Got an amazing job opportunity down here and I couldn't say no to it haha. Toronto kind of became unaffordable. But I'm going to miss winter storms. Might have to come to Michigan every now and then to experience some snow.

Did it ever stop?? Feels like a wind tunnel every day this fall.

ChatGPT just told be the earth is warming faster than typical background warming. No flaws in that logic.

So you do buy into the idea that at this present time the climate is warming? It seems like a few times you've alluded to a warming climate and accept that... but then when someone else says its warming, you make it sound like its nonsense. Sorry to drag it out, I think understanding viewpoints is important so like to ask questions. I'm mostly curious with: Do you think it is warming? (I do not care how the cause plays into this discussion).

If you're pulling for a scenario for the weekend, you want it to be the Euro (and company) solution... ULL, inverted trough and lake meso-low combo. The lake parameters some guidance is showing is top tier.

Anything is possible. Is it possible the micro-second that we’ve been here on this planet, has nothing to do with any warming or cooling going on possible?

Apparent temps: wind chills.

Well, anyway ... the increased variability and variance range ( large warm to cellar cold) that's been observably increasing during both autumn and spring ( transition seasons ) has already been geophysically demonstrated to be a function of CC. The altering of the circulation modes during those times of the year causes jet stream 'meanders' that increase frequency of transient blocking in the Ferrel latitudes ( up there around 60 N). Those impose unusually early ( and late season) cold and snow delivery to mid latitudes. But the integral of the whole Earth at the time that is occurring is in a state of d(warmth). But ... if one cannot understand the reality of CC to begin with... not sure how explaining why the circulation modes are changing, as part of CC, will ever get successfully registered. Not understanding how or why something works, is not a veracious reason to adjudicate a subject matter as false. I suspect though that isn't the case here; no one is lacking the intellectual capacity; the lack of admitting or acceptance is most likely for political bias blinding.

I appreciate your concern. That’s your take on things. I do not agree. I believe that any of this short term warming(with regard to a global time scale, not man’s) is transitory, and will revert back at a later time. Do I feel we should all be good stewards of the planet as much reasonably possible…absolutely. But I just don’t buy in to it..I’m sorry. Now, you can believe I’m sticking my head in the sand, I however do not feel that I am. I’d appreciate it if you left it at that. I will not be going over to the CC change thread, so feel free to go there and discuss it all that you want.

Strato is active but might struggle to reflect to the 500 mb for a bit longer. For now we can enjoy the cold snap early next week. Even if it does get mild again, my gut says more cold beginning of Dec. Snow cover is increasing again on the Rutgers chart after a pause. Physical Sciences Lab checks out for Siberia, China, Alaska pressure and temps. Nothing screams like what I shared a couple weeks ago, but it's leaning the right (cool / cold) direction. At least I don't discern warm torchy signals there. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory charts update despite the red banner top. Prolly automated.

Nothing else shows it.. I was waiting for it to drop it at 12z though..guessing 0z it will be gone

Obviously that's done nothing to the climate because in Antarctica it's gone from unfathomably cold to just ridiculously cold.

We’ve added 100ppm to the CO2 concentration since 1970.

Mark Margarbage on twitter using the CFS to try to justify a snowstorm in a few days

I was about to post this..lol

It's flawed because.. a majority of the research from 50 years ago was correct? That your false recollection from that time of Is just completely and entirely based off of feelings and false memories? I hate to have been the crass out-of-forumer that butted my head in and dragged this on way longer than it needed to, but genuinely, there are incredibly smart people in this forum all around you. They have separated their feelings from the facts and have portrayed the information in the plainest text possible, yet you stick your head in the sand. Vapid retorts of stale talking points and astroturfed ideologies that favor comforting lies over the truth. There is no cure for such viewpoints but time itself.

my wag at next week, west has a better chance of accumulation (obviously) and South of DC is favored to see some flurries (if anything manages to happen there).

The moment we stepped off the train we are put into a van and taken to a farm. I now am a potato farmer. Heil Potato.

Is it possible that the scaffolding that builds up the antithetical position may be flawed science ?

Kansas at North Carolina tonight. Football season pauses until Saturday. This Friday night lights, we shoot hoops!