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MU for tomorrow: A disturbance will swing through the Commonwealth later tonight into tomorrow & bring snow showers or a period of steadier snow to northern MD, southeastern PA & the LSV. The snow could fall heavily at times between ~5-11 AM before ending around midday. I expect a general coating to 2" of accumulation, but there could be locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches. Models are indicating a narrow but strong, quasi-stationary band of frontogenesis over the LSV Sat AM, & this could lead to a "boom" scenario & some high-end surprises.

Yeah the ponds around here couldn’t really come close to losing their ice even though we spent like 48-60 hours above freezing. It was pretty thick going into that warm up. Also helps that we didn’t have massive dews and warm rain with it. Now it’s just gonna get crazy thick with this temperature look over the next 10-12 days.

EURO AI has precip the 24th with marginal surface temps for DC and then again on the 28th except colder.

Nothing big but a 2-4" storm would make many happy. Plus the fun starts tracking wise next week with multiple chances

even if it was the euro--who cares about the 29th?

No high in SE Canada is still a big issue here as I said a few days ago.

I feel like that's directed at somebody but how should I know, I'm only 14

but yeah, Euro is showing the GFS thing for the 26/27th, just lighter

The next few model cycles might be interesting.

Euro coming west. Pretty close to the GFS now

This mornng between SLK and north side of Whiteface. Paste, then upslope powder.

First half of January around +2.5F that will make the cold second half look a bit less impressive in the final number crunch

Yes, we’re right on the line of it escaping east as a total whiff. But it doesn’t take a whole lot of change to get a GGEM solution which gives advisory snow even up into your ‘hood.

Decent hit around the 29th. Heavy slug of moisture just to our south *It's actually a pretty good hit. No temp issues Fuck me...that's the goddamn GFS I had pulled up. Sorry yall, I'm only 14

Temps are marginal along coast so increase in vort strength is preferred to promote heavier precip.

Already 11" in N ORH, even with the warm up

Just got text alert from EPAWA. From after midnight tonight through tomorrow 1-3" with isolated up to 4". Sticking on all surfaces.

Probably why the models have been jumping around so much. Little shifts have a big impact. So the possibilities are still there as this is just Friday

So what you are saying is- both the 12z CMC op and EURO op are now more like the GFS op, with some snow for I-95 and east. Seems like a favorable trend. eta- I should say- the 12z EURO has joined the 12z CMC and now both are more like the GFS

The Euro ideas down in SC/GA aloft have never budged much the last 48 hours...it was always a bit too dry down there as were many other models. I have been on the train of be wary in GA/SC even back as far as ATL/GSP to see this thing make a late push back NW. Eric Webb has been pumping that idea on X too.

Yeah, gotta hope at least somebody gets something out of it. All this time tracking for it to whiff the entire southeast would just suck lol. Ensembles last night looked promising for the 4th week of the month but get me inside 3 days and maybe I’ll feel okay about it.

oh i see what the AI Euro's doing there. it's contracted the QPF around the NW arc by small amts, while the low is both a couple mb deeper and tracking slightly NW of previous runs. that's a consolidating going on

I need to move somewhere that gets more snow. Currently looking at Beech Mountain, or Valdosta.

Yep, sometimes you know it’s fake or overdone when the model dynamics don’t look impressive. Likewise, well often talk about how the model QPF prob isn’t reflecting the dynamics far enough NW on other systems. What makes this system so tough is we have a negatively tilted shortwave with vortmax running up and usually that’s a slam dunk for a biggish event, but in this case, we’re racing against the attenuation of it….and very small shifts can make a large impact on the sensible wx of it. If you attenuate it too quickly, it never starts to “capture” the sfc in the Atlantic and get those conveyors cranking…but a slightly stronger/consolidated vort will start to capture all the lower level circulation and very quickly crank out heavier QPF

Euro good for part of the panhandle, SE Georgia, and the Lowcountry. Surface temps are iffy. Tries to throw RAH a bone.