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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No issue with that....December should be similar. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'v been saying that, but it either gets ignored, or someone will suggest that it's wrong. -
No thanks. Today's perfect. As many as we can get please.
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E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion
soadforecasterx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Loving your results. I recorded a low of 38.3. Pretty spoton to what you have posted. Honestly was a little let down I only got down to 38. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Did you read my post? I said, "then eliminate the ones with MC contribution". -
It’s a nothing burger
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Nearest PWS says overnight low of 31F. Pretty heavy frost when I got up.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
gallopinggertie replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Don’t worry guys, past mass extinction events were caused by much less sudden warming than what Earth is currently experiencing but it’s totally fine because I found a neat graph about coral. https://www.barrierreef.org/the-reef/threats/climate-change -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November. -
To quote Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On” - 34 earlier this morning as the low.
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36 for low in White Oak and 32 Frederick
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I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).
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I wonder if the drought out in plains and west is causing a feedback loop too.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December. -
I turned the pellet stove on overnight, got us up to 74 running on low.
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33 and light frost
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26.8 for the low here. First fire in the wood stove of the new season. Let's give it a few weeks til we light it up again.
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Right next to Birch Grove, around 750ft up
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First freeze of the year at Deep Creek, now time to track first flakes
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Just say there will be one big storm in it lol But yes
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If there's a "James Award", I nominate ineedsnow.
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12z NAM trying to bring in that coastal a bit
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