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Recency bias.

What a win for GDM weathernextv3. It’s getting scary how good it is.

Yes, this is what I was getting at....I understand that the baseline warming elevates that critical threshold for convection, but the warming across the eastern Pacific was lagging the west Pacific, so these recent potent El Nino events are part of a concerted effort to neutralize that...especially this latter, record surge. It's a battle, so the expression of warm ENSO has been masked to an extent, which is what @ensonerd1233e343was driving at. The antecedent warm west/cool east stratification and the record warm ENSO push are two competing forces, the latter attempting to restore a prior baseline in the midst of rapid GW. You're right...no one knows for sure how this will all work out, and I appreciate the different perspectives.

Now show the nam3k lol

if you want to play that game then harvey andrew michael and a bunch of other storms did intensify

Euro caved and came north with the heavy rain Sunday night

Think they are awaiting recon but that is almost undeniably a major at the moment. I’d venture to guess recon emphatically concludes the same

You better be prepared to suit up tomorrow night!

Opal in 1995, Dennis in 2005, and the list goes on.

WB 6Z EURO and AI

Remains Cat 2 at the 8am intermediate advisory. A bit surprising to be honest. Pressure down to 958mb

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

On the cusp of a major--the only one of the season--which would be a huge coup for my peak season forecast.

Marginal D3 SPC outlook right now but with a 5% tor risk. Good chance there's an upgrade as we get closer if the track holds.

The rotator cuff was ok! A torn bicep and labrum, but that’s so much better.

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat). i do agree with you that this could come in like Opal... in the sense that the pressure might rise 25 millibars prior to landfall off its peak.

Low of 45. Heading up to Happy Valley this afternoon!

Low of 42 in Marysville. Agreed, lower than what I expected.

Through history, the opposite has occurred vs intensifying. The recent ones to intensify had much weaker shear vs what is forecasted.

As a Alabama native, this storm is emulating Opal more than anything else. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes landfall as a category 3 even though the environmental conditions are yielding weakening. Also the fact that college football games are scheduled to be held in outdoor open air stadiums uninterrupted is idiotic. The wind gusts are going to make doing most pass plays impossible to do successfully along with the fields becoming slush/mud pits during the games. These are impending disasters waiting to happen. Yes, the tornado and damaging winds are looking to be the biggest threats to AL to SC.

But also plenty of situations like Opal 1995, Lili 2002 and Dennis 2005 where the storm collapsed coming in. It could be a high end Cat 1 or even cat 2 at landfall though since it only has so much time to weaken before landfall. Thankfully for surge it’s a smaller sized storm so it can’t build up a huge mound of water. Definitely a tough forecast but hopefully people down there prepped for a stronger than expected storm.

I drafted Jayden Daniels as my fantasy QB, and I just grabbed Michael Penix on the waiver wire. So do I start the guy who has consistently disappointed in fantasy when he hasn’t been hurt or the guy playing against my favorite team?

GFS hour 384. Let's do this: