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Wait, we lost our 384 hr HECS?

It doesn’t hurt Brett..I honestly dont know what you’re trying to accomplish? It’s weather. It doesn’t alway do what we want, or hope for. And if you’re insisting that it’s flying by, we still have much more in front of us, than behind us. But whatever…it guess it doesn’t matter when one has your outlook on things. It’s snowing heavily in N. Maine currently, and they are under a winter storm warning. I’ll be heading up north end of the week, so it’s all good for me in that regard. Enjoy whatever happens with this.

It’s a light event. It’s fine

We are getting another snow shower in between breaks in the clouds. No accumulations and frankly I was a bit surprised that we would see snow today down to the Valley floor. Cataloochee is snowing and the snow guns are blowing! It should be a great week ahead for the ski areas with lots of opportunities to build back the snow pack!

The end of the gfs run looks a little different this run lol. Definitely moved away from the euro.

50/50

so you are a believer ?

This is the 15z NBM. It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours. The trend is our friend.

Looking a lot better to be in Tenn and Kentucky, which is good. They never see snow. Has to be decades at this point!

Gefs look good

….Yup. And If it shits the bed, oh well. There will be other chances.

Truth hurts my man. Winter is flying by, and we just keep can kicking. It sucks

Gefs is pretty juicy

Yeah the cirrus will hit us.

We’ve gone from “She’s coming” to be glad for 1-3/2-4! Battered weather model syndrome is a real thing!!

Well that was the point of my post(the one you weenied lol). As is, the surface low develops a bit too late and gets going off the coast at our latitude. Great for those folks to our northeast.

Got about 1.2" here. Most of the models had us getting a DAB, so a nice surprise.

I’ve counted about 10 of your post. They say the same things just written different ways. you and snowman19 are definitely the same account.

For yall yes because it's a south/north flow.

For yall to really score the low really needs to dig and a negative tilt happen the sooner the better. I'm just afraid that a NW flow even heavy moisture laden will be difficult for the foothills. I mean something is better than nothing.

Lol nice. Still have some more runs to iron this one out.

The 12z GEFS does bump-up totals w/ system #1 on the 15th. I have less of an issue w/ GFS synoptics w/ storm one. Though for certain it still seems a bit too amped. Again, the 12z GEM looks suspicious w/ so little precip resulting from a strong vortex. Hopefully, the Euro can give us a bit more perspective with the understanding it is often under-modeled at this range as a bias. I would use the NBM for right now for storm one.

Fine again with where we’re at at this juncture but also still more interested in trailing energy next weekend moreso than Thursday.

Glad to see you’re feeling optimistic this morning.