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A "traditional" La Nina pattern here would be a mild Fall then near/below avg temps towards December. I believe Fall would also be on the dry side before turning wet in winter. With the rapid drop in average temps during Oct & Nov, a mild Fall still can be full of crisp, sunny days and the color can be spectacular. Once the leaves fall then im all about getting those blue departures in here lol.

on the bright side, my red thread is mostly gone. I think it was a combination of it being super dry, plus the 2 treatments of Disease X that I put down that finally took care of it. i have irrigation, but the torchy parts of the lawn are getting a little crisp, but overall it is holding on...for now.

I'd say starting with the 16-17 winter. The last real ubiquitous snowstorm was the January 22-23, 2016 event. Even when we had that great 17-18 winter, the storms were capped at 8 inches at PHL and 10 inches at NYC. The only one since the 2016 snowstorm that went over those thresholds in NYC is the late January/early February 2021 snowstorm, and even that one didn't do well in coastal areas. (The January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm did well in the coastal areas, not so much west of 95.) Something happened after the super el nino that's capping the potential for a ubiquitous snowstorm.

A guy I follow for long range suggested late last week, that Aug was looking to trend cool, and might continue well into the month. I've little interest in breaking records, so I'm gonna root him on to be right, as a comfy Aug. would be just fine by me...and most me thinks.

Nobody, and I mean NoBody, likes a sweaty boy.

86 / 73 despite the clouds - rocketing

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (1949) NYC: 99 (1949) LGA: 97 (1949) JFK: 98 (1949) Lows: EWR: 58 (1962) NYC: 57 (1903) LGA: 62 (1984) JFK: 61 (1965) Historical: 1898 - The temperature at Prineville, OR, soared to 119 degrees to establish a state record, which was tied on the 10th of August at Pendleton. (The Weather Channel) 1905 - Heavy rain in southwestern Connecticut caused a dam break, and the resulting flood caused a quarter of a million dollars damage at Bridgeport. As much as eleven inches of rain fell prior to the flood. (David Ludlum) 1916: Temperatures soared to record highs as a ten day heat wave reached its peak. The 102° at Lansing, MI tied the record for the hottest day ever there. Grand Rapids hit 103 °F as part of a record string of four consecutive days of 100 degrees or higher. Even the Lake Michigan shore was baking, with Muskegon hitting 95°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1930: The temperature at Holly Springs, Mississippi climbed to 115 °F to establish a new maximum temperature record for Mississippi. (Ref. Lowest and Highest Temperatures for the 50 States) 1958: The U.S. Congress passes legislation establishing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), a civilian agency responsible for coordinating America’s activities in space. 1960: Severe thunderstorms brought damaging winds, possibly as high as 100 mph to central Oklahoma. Eight planes and several hangars were damaged at Wiley Post Airfield, while two aircraft and additional hangars were damaged at Will Rogers World Airport. The winds caused seven injuries in the area, including two youths who were injured by flying debris. 1971: An unseasonably chilly air mass invaded the upper Plains and Rockies. Sheridan, WY dropped to 35°, their record lowest July temperature. Other record lows included: Rapid City, SD: 41°, Huron, SD: 42°, Valentine, NE: 42°, Billings, MT: 43°, Cheyenne, WY: 43 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1974: Westchester County, NY -- Lightning associated with a brief afternoon thunderstorm killed one golfer. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1979: Hollywood, MD was drenched by a 4 inch rain in 30 minutes. 1980: Early morning thunderstorms dropped 3.53 inches of rain at Philadelphia, PA, with most between 3 AM and 6 AM, setting a daily record and resulting in considerable roadway flooding.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1981 - Fifty cattle, each weighing 800 pounds, were killed by lightning near Vance, AL. The lightning struck a tree and then spread along the ground killing the cattle. (The Weather Channel) 1986: Lightning struck and injured a man while he was installing drywall in his home at Berne, NY. This was the 4th time he had been hit by lightning since 1977. Intense thunderstorms over Rhode Island dumped 5.58 inches of rain and hail over a half inch in diameter at the airport in Providence. 6.26 inches of rain fell at Point Judith while Narragansett recorded 6.03 inches of rain and hail accumulated to a depth of close to 4 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana and Illinois. A thunderstorm at Janesville, WI, produced wind gusts to 104 mph which flipped over two airplanes, and blew another plane 300 feet down the runway. The northeastern U.S. experienced some relief from the heat. Nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Johnsbury, VT, with a reading of 42 degrees. Barnet, VT, reported a morning low of 33 degrees, with frost reported on vegetation. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Hail three inches in diameter was reported south of Saint Cloud, MN. Hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. Fresno, CA reported a record thirteen straight days of 100 degree heat. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced more than five inches of rain west of Virgil, SD. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms deluged the foothills and adjacent plains of Colorado with heavy rain. Rains of six to seven and a half inches fell in eight hours north of Greeley. Hail and heavy rain caused several million dollars damage in Weld County. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2004: A record-setting flash flood occurred over part of the Greenville, South Carolina, during the morning hours. Six to eight inches of rain fell just east of Berea, a northwestern suburb, which caused the Reedy River through downtown Greenville crested 9 feet above flood stage. This crest was the highest level since 1908. 1996: A woman was killed while attempting to cross a low water bridge over Haw Creek in her vehicle in Morgan County, Missouri after thunderstorms dropped heavy rain causing flash flooding to occur. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1999: Chicago, IL recorded its highest ever dew point temperatures 82° overnight on this date. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: A two year old boy picking vegetables with his parents in Blount County, Alabama was struck by lightning. The family called 911 immediately, but put the child in an automobile and started for the hospital. Paramedics caught up with the family and began CPR. An Evac helicopter was called to transport the child to the hospital, but the little boy was dead on arrival. The important thing to remember is that many lightning victims simply stop breathing. Administering CPR immediately will often resuscitate a lightning victim. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: A record setting flash flood occurred over part of the Greenville, SC, during the morning hours. Six to eight inches of rain fell just east of Berea, a northwestern suburb, which caused the Reedy River through downtown Greenville to crest 9 feet above flood stage. This was the highest level since 1908. A 112 year-old record was broken for the coolest high temperature in Oklahoma City, OK for September. The temperature only rose to 73°, which broke the previous record by 3 degrees. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Scattered afternoon storms developed over mainly south and southeastern portions of the Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi region, a few of which became severe and produced some hail and wind damage. One cluster of storms lingered over northern Forrest County, Mississippi and caused flash flooding around Hattiesburg with rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: The peak of a heat wave occurred today in WA State as all-time records were set at Bellingham (96), Sea-Tac Airport (103 °F -old record of 100 °F), Olympia (104 °F), and the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Sand Point-Seattle (105 °F). (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2010: The Richmond International Airport had a maximum temperature today of 101 °F that makes the ten day in 2010 with the temperature of 100 °F or more; the old record is nine set in 1954.(Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 2011: Record Wettest July set at Chicago O'Hare- Another 1.40 inches of rainfall fell at Chicago-Ohare Airport Thursday 28th into Friday 29th morning...which brings the monthly rainfall total for July 2011 to 11.15 inches as of 7 am CDT. This sets a new record for the wettest July in recorded history in Chicago. The previous record was 9.56 inches in July of 1889. This also moves July 2011 up to the 7th wettest month ever in Chicago. In addition the all time record wettest month was August 1987 when 17.10 inches of rainfall was observed. (Ref. Chicago NWS )

I get that sometimes here along the LI Sound when there is an inversion with the wetlands nearby.

June-July rain so far is 3.94". Driest June-July 1998-2024 here was 5.02" in 2004. I think that mark is toast.

Was actually fairly pleasant (or not unpleasant) outside early this morning. 72 for the low. Already much less pleasant now . . . 81/76.

Not politics as both parties have cost our nation and it's taxpayers way too much for programs and studies that will not reduce or increase our temps by even 0.5 degrees.

Thanks for this. I’m already sweaty today.

As I mentioned yesterday some of our higher spots across the County had the potential not to reach 90 degrees on Monday and indeed 7 of the stations failed to reach there. So for those spots they will not "enjoy" their 2nd "heat wave" of the summer. For everybody else today will be day 2 and tomorrow day 3 but the final day of the "heat wave". We could see some heavy rain by later Thursday with a strong cold frontal passage. This will usher in well below normal temperatures for the weekend with an almost autumnal feeling as highs are in the 70's and nights in the 50's.

But look how high quality it is! High frame rate and resolution, at least that's how it's perceived. And it's like 12 seconds long! I take a screenshot and the image is more than the 1.9mb limit. Good luck reducing the file size on a phone.

As I mentioned yesterday some of our higher spots across the County had the potential not to reach 90 degrees on Monday and indeed 7 of the stations failed to reach there. So for those spots they will not "enjoy" their 2nd "heat wave" of the summer. For everybody else today will be day 2 and tomorrow day 3 but the final day of the "heat wave". We could see some heavy rain by later Thursday with a strong cold frontal passage. This will usher in well below normal temperatures for the weekend with an almost autumnal feeling as highs are in the 70's and nights in the 50's.

84 / 72 , partly cloudy. Heat is on - clouds in PA may mov through between 9:30 - 11:30 otherwise sunny hot. Mid - upper 90s, enough sun the hot areas to 100. More of the same tomorrow ahead of the front. Front timing and clouds the caveat to Thursday getting to 90. Storms still look to drop loads of rain where they setup Thu / Fri with slow moving boundary and ridge not budging. Cooler east / northeast regime Sat - Tue /Wed next week . Ridge west building erast, Atlantic ridge keeping the coast in higher heights with more southerly flow and a warm - hot and humid return towards the 8th. Looks to be warm - hot / wetter beyond. 7/29 - 7/31 : Hot / humid - storms focussed Thu PM 8/1 : Hung up boundary could be storms / wet 8/2 - 8/8 :; Cooler - East/Northeast flow - limited 90s if any at all (inland) 8/8 - beyond : Warm - hot / humid wetter overall

Looks wetter up here lol At least on mesos

Should be put on the mileXmile sized headstone over humanity's grave ... along with all the other dark ironies that fucking made it happen

Work in renewables and can confirm that this is the case. The 2025 numbers are even more compelling. For example, the average cost of an energy storage system dropped about 27% in the past year due to technology improvements (and a reduction in EV demand, unfortunately). Currently, battery systems are competitive with LNG Peaker plans in MISO (Midwest) where fossils were heavy entrenched incumbents. The reality is that PV + BESS make so much sense. The technology pair has no long-term extraction costs, can be recycled, and of course, no long-term combustion impacts. BESS is also the "swiss army knife" of grid technology and can respond to grid disturbances in milliseconds. Peaker plants, or even nuclear, can't do that. The problem is adoption still isn't happening fast enough. This should have been 10 years ago.

tutt 2025-2025 lest we forget

Technically it’s a gif

There is a rare smell of tow tide here. Not helping with the extra heat and humidity this morning.

Central North Pacific (140°W to 180°) Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 200 AM HST Tue Jul 29 2025 Hurricane Iona Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...IONA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 28 Location: 10.8°N 153.2°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 964 mb Max sustained: 115 mph Public Advisory #9 1100 PM HST Forecast Advisory #9 0900 UTC Forecast Discussion #9 1100 PM HST Wind Speed Probabilities #9 0900 UTC Wind Speed Probabilities Arrival Time of Winds Wind History Warnings/Cone Interactive Map Warnings/Cone Static Images Warnings and Surface Wind Tropical Storm Keli Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...KELI MOVING WESTWARD... 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 28 Location: 12.5°N 146.6°W Moving: W at 12 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Public Advisory #4 1100 PM HST Forecast Advisory #4 0900 UTC Forecast Discussion #4 1100 PM HST Wind Speed Probabilities #4 0900 UTC Wind Speed Probabilities Arrival Time of Winds Wind History Warnings/Cone Interactive Map Warnings/Cone Static Images Warnings and Surface Wind

My grass is so dead.

Yes, understood with respect to where the correction vector was in the medium range and on a seasonal level in non-mismatch years.