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Yeah. I fully believe mostly warm temps and strong or super. I see the difference between basin wide vs EP as “do we get a couple of more cold intrusions on the back side of winter to try to get something to phase with that supercharged southern stream, or is it extremely limited like 97-98?” It’s really not a question that can answered by even the most skilled mets this early on IMO.

a lot more preliminary or confirmed tornado reports in central Illinois. The number of tornadoes on this list has gone up from 20 to 93

I guess that means I'm not one of "those that live in the woods". (Pic from late May 2024, quince blossoms, apple blossoms in background).

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young.

We squeaked above 70 here, thought we’d stay in 60s.

Beautiful day here today. High of 72 with dew point of 40. Very dry and getting dryer.

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Dewpoint currently at 18 here, with temp already falling to 51 F.

The +PMM correlation research leads me to believe that this one is east-based/EP

I always wonder what birds think after they hit a window. They probably think where did that come from?

Bateman had like 10 catches all year? Lamar is a running threat if they have to cover WR's.. big time variable vs other teams needs. Also injury threat if he has to hold the ball makes it ++variable.

Yeah but we lost many games in the trenches last year...WR is not our biggest need, imo No trenches no time to throw to said WR, lol

5” rain bullseye for me on 12z euro.

I think it wouldn't hurt to draft a good WR honestly. Especially with Likely gone. Build the team around Lamar. Defenses vary too much year-to-year.

Glad to know I wasn’t just imagining it. I’m a little jealous though

i think DCA will get to 34-35 at the lowest. Up here we could see 32F.

so DCA is in the mid 50s at the moment (same here too - 55F). It's going to be close to see if we get to 32F. If the wind dies down, no chance. But a steady NW / NNW wind might do it. The river is pretty warm now though (nearly 70F in the Washington channel, so knock off a few degrees for the water by the airport) - so that will help to keep temps up obviously.

Been my early hedge, as well. This doesn't necessarily preclude a very warm winter throughout the east, though.

He did? Lol This must've been just after he came up! I mean yeah obviously ya had to see how he did, but...now nobody is gonna want him...oy. Was rooting for him (quite a story him making the majors after surviving the Parkland school shooting as a kid). It's too bad...Man are qe gonna have to start treating the Orioles like we did during the 14-staright losing seasons? Lol And yep, draft time indeed! Ravens have to be better this year...not sure where they go at 14. I'd imagine it's OL or pass rush?

Pull over until the plows can catch up with it

DCA reported ice pellets - I think we'll get the T.

DEN picked up 3.4" on Friday, putting them at 27.1" on the season. This means 2025-26 is officially no longer the least snowy winter for Denver in the airport era.

Cooler May? NAO was 2nd highest monthly all time in March 2026. 12 weeks x 75 years = 900 analogs. The following May in totality of analogs is surprisingly cold: CPC has it at least starting out this way May before a later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino is pretty Neutral historically, except in the PNW

Yup. 15-16 is a good example of a super that starts out east-based before going basin wide approaching winter.

^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA