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As advertised the Pacific is hostile on the means for the foreseeable future. We shall see if that verifies. It might not. If it does, what can 'save us' from a shit the blinds period to some degree is a favorable NA. In general the guidance indicates we may get that, but we just cant know yet. Just roll with it man. Keep monitoring. Have fun with it. This isn't life and death shit lol.

7 days out.

Europe has not been cold in seemingly forever in winter. Thats the pattern that really gets them cold, though they did well in 09-10 and 10-11 (early) with a W based -NAO, overall the e based one is better though.

Yeah this just is not a cold pattern for the west at all really. The Bering Sea ridge and subsequent trof are too far west. Its a fine line for them, a 700 mile shift east would produce December 1990 results for them but as of now too much Pac air is getting into that trof so they're just not cold and won't be any time soon

got em

Swine flu

Yeah, la nina augmented you might say. Nina actually strengthened a little recently after a steady weakening. Should see a rather fast weakening from here on. I think i'll go back and look at some NPAC Charts from 95-96 and see how or if the AR was prominent then.

Dammit Chuck, stop canceling winter!! We need a good vibe up in here. Read the room.

25

It’s all guidance at 12z.

Cold front passed through the area earlier this afternoon, with (convective) rain showers accompanying it, which helped to transport higher winds down to the surface. Peak wind gusts of 48MPH at ORD, 52MPH at MDW, and 41MPH at RFD.

Solid sunset a short time ago at ORD…

It’s like no one is allowed to enjoy the potential snow Tuesday because an op run shows a day of 38 rain on the 26th. Wild

Well you know, we gotta have the stoking of the fire. And then the nellies chime in etc etc…it’s how it goes around here unfortunately. Xmas is a week out, but yet we have folks telling us what it’s gonna do on Xmas already.

he's been saying this for days now. the storms crashing into the west coast are giving sf some rain lmao. utah, colorado, idaho, wyoming resorts are torched and dry as a bone

When it's deep -PNA like this, I don't even look at models for snow. Strong +EPO too. 98% of the time threats at Day 8+ don't pan out or are warm. While the OP may sometimes show a winter storm, the ensemble mean never really even has a trough.

7 days out…op runs…might as well be a month out. This morning the runs looked great. 12z not so much. Gonna waffle…especially in this type of set up. Gonna be all over the place the next few days.

Why does anyone care what op runs show past day 3-5?

Tomorrow/Friday looks more concerning from a fire weather perspective than Wed, with lower RHs than the previous wind event, higher gust forecasts, and a much larger areal coverage of RFWs.

Out of the next 14 days, a handful of days look at or below normal. The rest are AN. That means any storm is going to have to manufacture cold air…something we havent done well around here in a while. Its exciting to talk about threats and such, but I think you should keep that in mind.

I mean, they looked good last night, lol. They didn’t look good today. We’ll see what tonight/tomorrow brings.

Hard to have any idea which side of the boundary we’ll be on. I don’t ever recall such volatility in the guidance.

it was the ensembles too that went south

Well we can bury our heads in the sand but would be nice if the OPs start looking a bit more promising around the 24-27th period.

We just can’t escape him.